1. The International Financial System
FNCE 4070 – Financial Markets and Institutions

2. Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: the Money Supply
The first step is to understand the impact on the monetary base and the money supply when a central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market.
International reserves refers to a central bank’s holdings in a foreign currency.

3. Unsterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention
An unsterilized foreign exchange intervention describes when a central bank buys/sells foreign assets in exchange for US currency without correcting for the effect on the monetary base.

4. Unsterilized Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
Suppose the Fed buys $1bn in bunds
Before:
After

5. Unsterilized Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
A central bank’s sale of domestic currency and corresponding purchase of a foreign assets leads to an equal increase in its international reserves and the monetary base.

6. Effect of an Unsterilized Intervention
The Fed is selling USD and buying EUR. This should weaken the dollar.
The Fed is increasing the monetary base and the money supply. An increase in the money supply should weaken the dollar.
As an open market operation the Fed is increasing the supply of currency or reserves. This should lower the Fed Funds rate which should lower other rates and thus weaken the dollar.

7. Problems with Unsterilized Interventions
The problem with an unsterilized intervention is that the central bank is both affecting the exchange rate but also affecting domestic monetary policy.

8. Sterilized Foreign Exchange Intervention
An sterilized foreign exchange intervention describes when a central bank buys/sells foreign assets in exchange for US currency and corrects for the effect on the monetary base

9. Sterilized Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
Suppose in addition to the previous unsterilized intervention the Fed also sold $1bn of T-Bills.
Before:
After

10. Effect of a Sterilized Intervention
The effect of a sterilized intervention is less clear.
The Fed is selling USD and buying EUR so it should weaken the US dollar but
The supply of US vs European assets does not particularly change.
The NY stock exchange is worth approx $14tr
Global Bond Markets are worth approx $82tr
The Monetary Base is approximately $2.5tr

11. Effect of a Sterilized Intervention
The Fed is selling USD and buying EUR so it should weaken the US dollar but
The general supply of US vs European assets does not change.
The NY stock exchange is worth approx $14tr
Global Bond Markets are worth approx $82tr
The Monetary Base is approximately $2.5tr
The monetary base does not change
The Fed Funds rate does not change

12. Effect of a Sterilized Intervention
There is not guaranteed to be an effect on the currency
Portfolio Balance Channel (weak)
The intervention causes a shift in the relative weights of domestic vs foreign assets for an average portfolio
Signaling Channel (stronger)
The intervention causes a shift in the market perception of the central bank’s policy

13. Balance of Payments
The balance of payments is a bookkeeping system for recording all receipts and payments that have a direct bearing on the movement of funds between a nation (private and government) and foreign countries.

14. The Current Account
The current account – These are international transactions that involve currently produced goods and services. The current account includes data on:
Imports and exports of goods – (the trade balance -$378bn in 2009)
Imports and exports of services – financial, legal, medical etc (132bn in 2009)
Income on financial assets (+121bn in 2009)
Transfers between countries. Foreign aid, remittances, international gifts etc (-125bn in 2009)
Thus the current account showed a deficit of -250bn in 2009.

15. The Capital Account The Capital Account – This includes:
Foreign direct investment – for example the purchase or development of a Toyota plant in the US
Investment in business, real estate, stocks and bonds (these are often put in what is called the Financial Account)
Other financial transactions – for example, cross border bank accounts.
In 2009 the capital account was $140m. Thus 140m more capital flowed into the United States then flowed out.

16. Official Reserve Transaction Account
The sum of the current account and the capital account is the official reserve transaction balance (net change in government international reserves).
In 2009 the official reserve transactions balance was -250bn+140m = -$249.86bn

17. Current Account Deficit
if it is financed by the capital account then a country is foregoing capital assets for goods and services.
If it is financed by borrowing money from abroad then it can show up through the official reserve transaction account