1. The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math. 2/18/1996

2. Goal What is the scientific method? What does the scientific method assume? Does the scientific method work? What is not a scientific argument. Does astrology follow the scientific method?

3. What is science? Science is a tool. Medicine: “I have high cholesterol, what should I do?” –Take cholesterol lowering medication. –Consult your astrologer. –Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat.

4. The Scientific Method 1.Observe an event. 2.Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a prediction. 3.Test the prediction. 4.Observe the result. 5.Revise the hypothesis. 6.Repeat as needed. 7.A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific Theory. model test

5. Medical Science Scientific MethodHigh Cholesterol ObservationPatient has high cholesterol Hypothesis (prediction) Certain chemicals may dissolve cholesterol deposits. TestGive 100 patients these chemicals, give 100 patients placebo. Observe resultSame number lower their cholesterol as placebo patients. Revise hypothesis? Try different combo of chemicals. New test?Re-run medical test. Observe results. Scientific TheoryLipitor reduces cholesterol.

6. Everyday Science Scientific MethodCar Repair ObservationEngine won’t turn over. Hypothesis (prediction)Predict battery is dead. TestReplace battery. Observe resultEngine now turns over. Revise hypothesis?Not needed. New test?Not needed. Scientific TheoryCars won’t work without a fully charged battery.

7. Everyday Science Scientific MethodMaking Spaghetti Sauce ObservationSpaghetti sauce should be red. Hypothesis (prediction) Try a tomato sauce. TestHeat pot of tomato sauce. Observe resultTaste the sauce - bland. Revise hypothesis?Use tomato sauce and garlic! New test?Add garlic, taste - not so bland. Scientific TheoryThe Final Recipe.

8. Food Science Throwing something together  Hypothesis Your grandmother’s time-tested recipe  Scientific Theory.

9. Repeatability A successful theory is repeatable. –By you. –By anyone. Examples: –Cold Fusion (1989) –Ecstasy (Science, 2003)

10. Requirements Objective reality –We all see the same world. Constant Laws of Nature –What happens here, happens there. –What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow. The Cosmos is knowable.

11. Does it work? Scientific Method is a tool. Does this tool work? –Life expectancy –Mortality rates Are there better tools?

12. Recap: Theories, Guesses, Laws What does the word “Theory” mean to you? “A conjecture; guess” (Webster’s Dictionary) Does it mean the same to a scientist? “A model which has been born out by repeated tests and observation.” Is a Theory less than a Law? “Evolution is just a theory, it is not a fact.” Do Theories “grow up” to be Laws? “Einstein’s Theory of Relativity”

13. Theories So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis. All hypotheses make predictions. All theories make predictions. All theories can be tested. Result: Any scientific theory is subject to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

14. Non-scientific Theories Make no predictions Un-testable Can’t be falsified

15. Non-scientific Theories Car won’t work?  Aliens drained the battery. Spaghetti is bland?  You were meant to eat bland food. Car won’t work?  Gods must be angry. Spaghetti is bland?  At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

16. Non-scientific Theories The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance, a divine intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design). Face on Mars. Viking Orbiter (1976)Mars Global Surveyor (1998)

17. Falsification A real Scientific Theory tells you what observations are necessary to falsify it. –Not so proponents of: Face on Mars Moon Hoax Astrologers