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NCCARF 2014 Steve George.

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Presentation on theme: "NCCARF 2014 Steve George."— Presentation transcript:

1 http://www.sealevelrise.info/ NCCARF 2014 Steve George

2 Canute: The Sea Level Calculator Online Decision Support Tool Impact of (varying) sea-level on the coastal environment. Geographical quantification of: Storm surge (floods) Soft shoreline recession Wave activity

3 Canute: The Sea Level Calculator Online Decision Support Tool Impact of (varying) sea-level on the coastal environment. Geographical quantification of: Storm surge (floods) Soft shoreline recession Wave activity (others not discussed, or in development) Steady climate variability Additional impacts due to climate change

4 Canute Output Storm Surge

5 Storm Surge: Likelihood of flooding What has been done previously? Find your nearest decent tide- gauge (what’s happened previously) Fit a distribution to the extremes & extrapolate Calculate risk you are willing to take. e.g. Melbourne Water requires that any new development is protected in the 1 in 100 year flood event.

6 Storm Surge: What of the future? Sea-level is rising, so can no longer just look to the past for what will happen in the future. One options is to choose an arbitrarily large height (above which you are allowed to build) This can be expensive, and prevents a planner from performing a comprehensive risk analysis. Alternatively, provide a localised calculation of flood likelihood. Uncertainty in past Uncertainty in future

7

8

9 Canute Output: Storm Surge

10 AEP vs. ARI ARI (years)AEP 10.632 20.393 50.181 100.095 200.049 500.020 1000.010

11 Canute Output: Storm Surge Number of Events The EP gives the probability of one or more events. The expected number of events at a certain level is possibly more relevant: Recent Addition

12 Canute Output Coastal Setbacks

13 Canute Output: Coastal Setback How far back from the sea should I build my beach house? S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion (storm demand) S2: Allowance for ongoing underlying recession S3: Allowance for recession due to future sea level rise (SLR) S4: Allowance for beach rotation S5: Allowance for dune stability

14 Canute Output: Coastal Setback How far back from the sea should I build my beach house? S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion (storm demand) S2: Allowance for ongoing underlying recession S3: Allowance for recession due to future sea level rise (SLR) S4: Allowance for beach rotation S5: Allowance for dune stability

15 Canute Output: Coastal Setback Beach Modelling Results of Modelling by Water Research Laboratory Forced by storm surge high water levels (tide gauge), and significant wave height(CSIRO) Regionally specific Regionally specific beach types modelled under localised storm-surge conditions

16 Coming soon: S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion S5: Allowance for dune stability Coming soon: S1: Allowance for short term storm erosion S5: Allowance for dune stability

17 Canute Output Wave Activity

18 Canute Output: Wave Activity Sea-level is more than just the still-water level Wave setup is the superelevation of mean water level caused by wave action (total water depth being the sum of still-water depth and wave setup). Wave runup is the maximum elevation of wave uprush above still- water level: it is the sum of the setup and incident wave runup.

19 Canute Output: Wave Activity Present day variability: developing tool First version required user to provide location specific data on offshore wave climatology (e.g., from sparse network of Waverider buoys). Latest version provides full coverage around the Australian coast by utilising results from NOAA WAVEWATCH III ocean wave model. Development system has access to assorted model datasets (e.g., ECMWF and CSIRO wave data). Future system will incorporate results from XBeach modelling.

20 Canute...and finally

21 Canute: The Sea Level Calculator Online Decision Support Tool Impact of (varying) sea-level on the coastal environment. Geographical quantification of: Storm surge (floods) Soft shoreline recession Wave activity (others not discussed, or in development) Steady climate variability Additional impacts due to climate change

22 Canute: Usage Users who have completed the training

23 http://www.sealevelrise.info/ http://staff.acecrc.org.au/~segeorge

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