1. Together we stand, without data we fall how focusing on NTR can build team between admissions and financial aid Christine Saadi, Alvernia University Jen Wick, Scannell & Kurz

2. AGENDA  Partnership between Admissions and Financial Aid  Using Data to Set Awarding Policy  Case Study

3. WHY IS A PARTNERSHIP IMPORTANT?  Communicating affordability  Providing excellent customer service  Developing mutually supportive processes  Ensuring strategies that support enrollment goals

4. FOCUS ON NTR, NOT JUST CLASS SIZE OR THE AID BUDGET  Admission’s goal is not just the number and mix of students  Financial Aid’s goal is not just staying in budget  Keeps admissions and financial aid on the same page  Remember to think long term – new students’ discount rate will affect the overall discount rate

5. USE DATA, NOT ANECDOTE TO ESTABLISH AID POLICIES  Keeping an “ear to the ground” plays a role, but that should not be the foundation of your awarding strategies.  Using analytical approaches to understanding student responses to your aid offers is where your strategy needs to begin.  Table analysis  Predictive modeling  Simulation tools

6. TO ASSESS HOW EFFECTIVELY YOUR AID PROGRAM IS CURRENTLY RESPONDING TO MARKET FORCES, THERE ARE 4 KEY QUESTIONS TO ANSWER 1. Are we perceived as worth the price we’re charging? 2. Have we convinced our families that we are affordable? 3. How much aid do we need to spend to meet our enrollment goals? 4. How can we be sure we are spending our aid wisely?

7. QUESTION #1: ARE WE PERCEIVED AS WORTH THE PRICE WE’RE CHARGING?  Monitor trends in your pool  Identify your competition  Benchmark against the competition  Define your institutional advantage  Gather and share outcomes data

8. SAMPLE BENCHMARKING

9. QUESTION #2: HAVE WE MADE THE CASE FOR AFFORDABILITY?  Do you lose your overlap with public institutions as you progress through the admissions cycle?  Has the distribution of applicants by socioeconomic level changed over time?  How does the level of need and unmet need impact yield rates and retention rates?

10. QUESTION #3: HOW MUCH AID DO WE NEED TO SPEND TO MEET ENROLLMENT GOALS?  It DEPENDS!!!  If at capacity, the focus should be trade-offs.  If not at capacity, the priority has to be maximizing net tuition revenue.  The institution’s long-range strategic plan needs to include a plan for enrollment.

11. BUT WHAT DRIVES THE DISCOUNT RATE?  Market Forces (i.e., the competition)  Changes in Ability to Pay  Trends in family contributions  Percentage of students applying for aid  Changes in Willingness to Pay  Yield by need level and grant level  Changes in Outside Support  Retention by Need Level and Grant Level  How you build your pool  Institutional Goals  Commitments to diversity, quality, etc.

12. NET TUITION REVENUE TABLE -- TUITION $21,000

13. QUESTION #4: HOW CAN WE BE SURE WE ARE SPENDING OUR AID WISELY?  Are you under-funding need-based grant programs?  Are you focusing institutional aid too heavily on merit programs or is the merit aid focused on the wrong applicant segment?  How much revenue is lost by offering entitlements?  The competition is offering aggressive merit programs; should you respond?

14. CLEARLY THE NEED FOR A DATA-DRIVEN APPROACH TO ANSWERING THESE QUESTIONS HAS NEVER BEEN MORE IMPORTANT  The challenge will be to balance often conflicting enrollment goals.  There is a need for more sophisticated means to fully understand the tradeoffs and the impact of various strategies.  Institutions can’t afford to get it wrong.

15. DATA-DRIVEN DISCOUNTING Are there market segments where the “universal truths” don’t hold? NEED Yield AID (FREE $) Yield

16. DATA-DRIVEN DISCOUNTING: SAMPLE YIELD TABLE Tuition =$15,000

17. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS Current NTR 55 * ($15,000 - $10,500) = $247,500 20 * ($15,000 - $7,500) = $150,000 8 * ($15,000 - $4,500) = $ 84,000 $481,500 Projected Enrollment (Average total grant $10,500) 220 * 55% = 121 Projected NTR 121 * ($15,000 - $10,500) = $544,500

18. PREDICTIVE MODELING  Predictive modeling, also known as econometric modeling, allows you to better understand these tradeoffs and present alternatives to institutional decision-makers  Modeling allows you to test assumptions and interactions before taking action

19. GOALS OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING  Identify factors that are important in the enrollment decision  Determine the impact of institutional grants on the probability of enrolling  Determine the revenue-maximizing levels of grants  Identify alternative financial aid packaging strategies  Simulate the results of alternative admissions and aid strategies and policies

20. SAMPLE SIMULATION SUMMARY

21. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES THAT ARE OF VALUE IN MANAGING FINANCIAL AID STRATEGICALLY: Watch and analyze trends Know what the competition is doing – benchmark Track the behavior of subpopulations – their yields and mean values as well as retention rates Utilize econometric modeling techniques to test tradeoffs between goals

22. CASE STUDY: ALVERNIA UNIVERSITY  Private, Catholic university located in Eastern PA  Fall 2013 total enrollment:1500  400 new freshman/115 transfers  Average SAT – 985  Male/Female Ratio – 28% Male/72% Female  Out of state enrollment – Approx. 28%

23. ORGANIZATION VP for Enrollment Management Dean of Admissions & Student Financial Planning Director of Admissions Direct Reports 15 Director of Student Financial Planning Direct Reports 8

24. COLLABORATING ON AFFORDABILITY MESSAGES  Designing the right Net Price Calculator  What is your goal for use: meet Dept of Ed requirements or as an enrollment tool?  Simplicity vs. accuracy  Work with Admissions to create NPC  Get your marketing department involved  Front-and-center or buried on website  Alvernia advantage

25. USING PREDICTIVE MODELING TO DEVELOP AID STRATEGIES  Nursing & OT packaging vs. other programs  Decision to change OT in 2011 2010 % need met ranged 40% to 55% 2011% need met ranged 35% to 45% OT packaging changes 201020112012 OT Fresh324941 Tuition$819,840$1,307,810$1,152,510 Inst Aid$368,350$429,330$457,500 NTR$451,490$878,480$695,010 DR0.4490.3280.397 Ave Pkg$11,510.94$8,762$11,159 Total Pkgd324941

26. COMBINED GOALS: FOCUSING ON NTR SAMPLE NTR BUDGET MODEL 2011 Tuition and fees$26,770 Total Institutional Grant Aid Number of Students Receiving Grant Discount Rate Net Tuition Revenue Gross Tuition Revenue Average Grant Award # in Class Estimated Conv. Of Students % Getting Aid Freshmen$3,928,106.003710.385$6,271,264$10,199,370$10,588381 0.97 Freshmen attended before$669,713810.288$1,659,277$2,328,990$10,160870.220.93 Sophomore$3,033,5603130.342$5,827,310$8,860,870$10,1603310.710.95 Junior$2,548,9203070.283$6,472,570$9,021,490$8,3933370.990.91 Senior$2,618,6333370.268$7,152,417$9,771,050$8,2903651.130.92 Totals$12,798,93214090.319$27,382,838$40,181,770$9,0841501 Deflation Factor = 96% for students; 97.4% for Grant Aid Annulized totals$12,466,1600.323$26,108,339$38,574,4991,441 Estimated 2012 Tuition and fees$27,975 Total Institutional Grant Aid Number of Students Receiving Grant Discount Rate Net Tuition Revenue Gross Tuition Revenue Average Grant Award # in Class Estimated Conv. Of Students % Getting Aid Freshmen$4,450,2074020.388$7,019,399$11,469,607$11,076410 0.98 Freshmen attended before$954,441900.344$1,816,728$2,771,169$10,588990.260.91 Sophomore$3,424,9873230.363$6,001,352$9,426,338$10,5883370.720.96 Junior$3,194,8423140.345$6,064,767$9,259,609$10,1603311.000.95 Senior$2,970,4103540.267$8,153,990$11,124,399$8,3933981.180.89 Totals$14,994,88614840.340$29,056,236$44,051,122$10,1061575 Deflation Factor = 96% for students; 97.4% for Grant Aid Annulized totals$14,605,0190.345$27,684,058$42,289,0771,512

27. COMBINED GOALS: FOCUSING ON NTR SAMPLE NTR BUDGET MODEL

28. SUCCESSFUL ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT MUST INCLUDE A PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN ADMISSIONS, FINANCIAL AID, AND THE DATA.  Making the case for affordability and value  Supportive, efficient processes and quality customer service  Effective strategies to achieve enrollment goals

29. QUESTIONS? CHRISTINE SAADI Director, Student Financial Planning Alvernia University 400 Saint Bernardine Street Reading, PA 19607 (610) 796-8356 Christine.Saadi@alvernia.edu www.financialaid@alvernia.edu JEN WICK Enrollment Management Consultant Scannell & Kurz 71-B Monroe Avenue Pittsford, NY 14534 (585) 381-1120 wick@scannellkurz.com www.ScannellKurz.com