1. Climate Change: Production Variability and Diversity
Alok K. Sikka
Deputy Director General (NRM)
Indian Council of Agricultural Research
New Delhi

2. Climate Change and Indian Agriculture- Challenges
Indian agriculture has to feed 17.5% of the global population with only 2.4% of land and 4% of water resources at its disposal.
Large country with diverse climate
Sixty percent of net sown area rainfed
High monsoon dependency
Increase in frequency of extreme weather events
Diverse seasons, crops and farming systems
Close link - climate and water resources
Small holdings, poor coping mechanisms and low penetration of risk management products 2 2

3. Trends in temperature, atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O
IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2014)
Atmospheric CO2 concentration has crossed 400 ppm.
Methane concentration increased from 800 to 1800 ppb.
Nitrous oxide concentration increased from 270 to 320 ppb.
Heat stress on agriculture would intensify in coming years.
Climatic variability will also increase causing more uncertainties with agricultural production.

4. Emission of greenhouse gases from various sub-sectors of agriculture in India in 2010
Currently N2O from soil and fertilizer is the 2nd largest source

5. Climate at district level (Post 1970)
Climate at district level (Pre 1970)
Moist sub-humid districts in eastern region turned dry sub-humid

6. Delay in onset of monsoon projected in Western and peninsular region
Increase in Total rainfall in western India hints at possibility of extreme events

7. Increase in Max and Min Temperatures across India

8. Probability of increase in heat wave

9. Area prone to floods (%GA)
Drought Incidence
Area prone to floods (%GA)
Cyclone-proneness
Cyclone proneness: Composite index based on five attributes: No. of cyclones crossing the district, no. of severe cyclones crossing the district, probable maximum precipitation for a day, probable maximum winds in knot, probable maximum storm surge

10. Drought in 2009-10 and its impact on Foodgrains production
2009 -Third worst monsoon since 1901
( %, %)
Source of data: Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation

11. Extreme events becoming matter of concern
Year
SWM Rainfall Departure (%)
2001
-15
2002
-19
2003 +2
2004
-13
2005 -1
2006
2007 +5
2008 -2
2009
-23
2010
2011 +1
2012 -8
2013 +6
2014
-12
2002 drought
20 day heat wave during May 2003 in Andhra Pradesh
Extreme cold winter in the year
Drought like situation in India in July 2004
Abnormal temperatures during March and flood in 2005
Floods in 2005
Cold wave
Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006
Abnormal temperatures during 3rd week of Jan to 1st week of Feb 2007
All India Severe drought 2009
2010 – One of warmest years
2011 – Failure of September rains in AP
2012 – Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat & Karnataka. Cyclone, AP floods
2013- Uttarakhand Flood, Phalin cyclone, and hailstorms
2014- J & K Flood, cyclone ‘Hudhud’ 11 11

12. Hail frequency in India (1978-2011)
Hail Storms
Impact on crops

13. Vulnerability Atlas District level vulnerability assessment completed
More vulnerable districts identified

14. Impacts of climate change in 2020 scenario on various crops
Rice
Wheat
Mustard
Irrigated rice, wheat and mustard productions may be reduced by 6%, 4% and 4%, respectively.
Adaptation strategies can compensate the reductions.
Rice

15. Impacts of climate change in 2020, 2050, 2080 scenario on various crops
Climate Change Impact
Rice
Projected reduction in rice productivity (2020 to 2080):
4-10% in irrigated rice & 2.5 to 6% in rainfed rice
Pollen sterility and poor germination of pollen due to high temperatures, adverse effect on basmati rice
Wheat
Projected reduction in wheat yield (Global - MIROC3.2.HI, Regional - PRECIS): 6-23% by 2050; 15-25% by 2080
High thermal stress during post flowering period reduced wheat yield by 18%
Mustard
60% reduction (projected)
Potato
12% reduction (projected)
Apple
1°C increase in the Himalayan region is adversely affecting apple yield
Sorghum
2-14% reduction in Kharif sorghum yield by 2020
Worsening impact by 2050 and 2080
Maize
18% reduction at regional level in irrigated kharif maize by 2050 due to warming which can be partly off-set by increased rain
Milk
Annual loss (production) of 1.8 mt by based on ambient THI with maximum impact in U P, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and West Bengal

16. Sensitivity of rice yields to change in minimum temperatures
Rising trends in minimum temperature
-negative impact on rice yields.
About 268 districts exhibited a negative impact of rising temperature and 49 of them showed statistical significance.
Negative impacts mostly in the on the eastern parts, Madhya Pradesh and Indo-Gangetic Plains.
Correlation between district level minimum temperature rice yields

17. THI map(s) to Identify Different Strategic Locations for assessing Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production
April Baseline
April 2030

18. Impact of Thermal Stress
Both increase in T max (> 4oC above normal) during summer and decline in T min (>3oC than normal) during winter, negatively impact milk production
The northern India is likely to experience more negative impact of climate change on milk production
The decline in milk production will be higher in crossbred (0.63%) than buffalo (0.5%) and indigenous cattle (0.4%)
Frequency and incidence of mastitis, FMD, tick born diseases affecting crossbred cows and other high producing animals may increase due to increase number of stressful days
Rise of 1-2˚C will marginally affect Milk production but rise of more than 2˚C will increase incidence of silent estrus, short estrus and decline in reproduction efficiency

19. Recent Government Initiatives on Climate Change in Agriculture
Timeline
Initiative
Objective
2004
ICAR - Network Project on Climate Change
To quantify sensitivities of food production systems to climate change scenarios
Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agro-ecosystems
Policy support for international negotiations on global climate change
2010 (approval)
PM’s Council - National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)
Evolve National Policy on climate change
Initiate eight National Missions
2013
MoA – National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)
Enhance agricultural productivity and sustainability through adaptation measures on 10 key dimensions of Indian agriculture
Judicious utilization of resources of commons via community based approach

20. National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA)
Objective
To enhance resilience of Indian agriculture (including crops, livestock and fisheries) to climatic variability and climate change
To demonstrate site specific technology packages on farmers’ fields to cope with current climatic variability
To enhance the capacity of scientists and other stakeholders in climate resilient agricultural research and awareness of impacts
Programme Area
Rainfed crop production systems
Soil, water and nutrient management
Irrigated crop production systems
Monitoring of GHGs
Horticultural production systems
Energy efficiency in agriculture
Improved machinery for adaptation and mitigation
Livestock and Dairy sector
Fisheries including Aquaculture
All aspects covering the production systems in NE
NICRA Project Components
Strategic Research
Technology Demonstrations
Capacity Building
Sponsored / Competitive research grants

21. Major Achievements
Extensive field phenotyping of germplasm of target crops (rice, wheat, maize, pigeonpea, tomato) to multiple abiotic stresses
District level vulnerability mapping – Atlas prepared
Technology development for climate resilient horticulture
Role of NRM in adaptation – Biochar, CA, water foot prints and emission reduction through efficient energy management, quantification of carbon sequestration by agroforestry
Unique traits for thermal tolerance in livestock mapped, heat care mixture for poultry ready for commercialization
Relationship established between increase in SST and catch and spawning in major marine fish species.
Three years of on-farm technology demonstrations came up with several models for upscaling under NMSA

22. Coping with current climate variability: Demonstrating climate resilient technologies on farmers fields in vulnerable districts

23. Technology Demonstration Modules (4 modules)
Implemented through KVKs
In-situ
Ex-situ RWHS
TDC NICRA
NRM
Livestock & Fisheries
Institutional Interventions
Crop Prod.
Tolerant Breeds
Tolerant cultivars
Shelter Mngmt
Contingency interventions
Health
Planting time
Feed/ Fodder
Crop diversification
CHC
Seed/ Fodder bank

24. In-situ Rain Water Harvesting Structures
Demonstrated on
67 ha involving 229 farmers
Value of convergence Rs
Convergence with MGNREGA
Umarani village, Nandurbar

25. Staggered Community nursery technique
Coping with delayed onset of monsoon
Staggered Community nursery technique
To avoid transplanting of over-aged seedlings (medium to long duration varieties in lowlands)
Nursery sowings on 15th June, 28th June and 12th July
Technique adopted by the State Dept. of Agriculture, Bihar in 2013 (Rs /acre nursery)

26. Direct Seeded Rice: Coping with monsoon delay
Punjab, UP, Bihar & Jharkhand
Technology
Input cost
(Rs/ha)
Av. Yield
(q/ha) BC
Ratio
Direct Seeding 30 kg/ha
14100/-
45.0
2.19
Conventional method (60-80 kg/ha)
18900/-
47.0
1.85
Timely sowing
Water saving (25%)
Diesel saving for pumping (27%)
Labor saving (35-40 mandays)
Early maturity (7-10 days) for timely rabi cropping
Low methane emissions / less GWP (33% reduction compared to Tp)
Scope for upscaling
North-west IGP, Biahr, Jharkhand, Odisha, AP, Chattisgarh

27. Advancing Planting date to escape from terminal heat / drought – Satna, MP
Crop
Normal
Intervention
Mustard
Last week of Oct to Ist week of Nov
1-15 Oct.
Wheat
05-20 Dec.
15-30 Nov.
Chick pea
10-25 Oct.
Nov,4,2011
Oct,13,2011
Dec,17,2011
Nov,19,2011

28. Demonstration of Tolerant Paddy varieties in Flood prone areas
TDC
Demonstration of Tolerant Paddy varieties in Flood prone areas
Flood tolerant paddy varieties demonstrated in Assam, AP, Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal, Gujarat
Identified performing varieties in low, medium and high inundation areas
Submergence tolerance from 7-10 days
Increased yield due to reduced extent of lodging
Prevented loss in grain and straw yield
Swarna sub-1
Tolerant paddy cultivars
Yield (q/ha)
% increase in yield
B: C ratio
Demo
Local
Swarna Sub-1
41.25
33.75
18.9
2.09
MTU-1061
45.28
28.1
23.1
1.84
MTU-1140
55.1
31.8
73.2
2.01
MTU-1061
MTU-1140

29. Change of cultivars and potassium spray helped farmers save paddy crop from floods post Neelam cyclone timm
Swarna (MTU-7029) Indra (MTU-1061)
4.1 t/ha t/ha
Sirsiwada village could save Rs.45 lakhs worth paddy in one season

30. Conservation Agriculture and Carbon Sequestration in Rainfed Agriculture (Maize - horsegram system ( )
Residue retention of kharif maize and ZT improved soil profile storage capacity and C sequestration which helped grow post rainy- horsegram, in rainfed Alfisols:
Otherwise monocropped region

31. Improved planting methods to increase rainwater use efficiency & crop productivity
Soybean at Datia, MP
BC ratio: 3.51 vs 2.41
Making of BBFs
Drainage in furrows
Crop stand in BBF
Onion atTumkur
Additional gross returns: Rs.1,50,000/-
Cotton at Aurangabad

32. Short duration drought tolerant cultivars : Answer to reduced duration due to climate change
Location
Crop
Variety
Duration
Varanasi
Rice
Pigeonpea
Vandana
T-21 93
176
Phulbani
160
Arjia
Maize
Surya
70-75
Anantapur
Groundnut
Vemana
Indore
Soybean
JS-90-41
87-98
Rewa
Kalinga-3 90
Akola
Cotton
AKH-081
Bijapur
Sunflower
KBSH-1
90-95
Solapur
Sorghum
Mauli
Hisar
Pearlmillet
HHB-67
60-62
Bangalore
Fingermillet
GPU-26
90-105
CRIDA
Source: AICRPDA-CRIDA, Hyderabad 32

33. Intercropping - the best way to Adapt to climate change by small holders (eg.India)33

34. Crop diversification in Rice-wheat system : Short duration maize & pigeonpea
South Bihar
Interventions
Demo
Critical input
No of farmer
Area
(ha)
Yield (Q/ha)
Local
% increase
Maize
Short duration varieties
Seed
Var. GK3017
Var. DMH849
104
7.5
40.2
18.7
114
Economics of Demo Rs/ha Economics of Local Rs/ha
Gross Cost
Gross Return
Net Return
B:C:R
18750
56280
37530
3.00
16650
24310
7660
1.46
MAL-13

35. Crop diversification – Contingency measure
No. of. farmers
Area (ha)
Av. Yield (q/ha)
Gross Cost (Rs/ha)
Gross Return
(Rs/ha)
Net Return
BC Ratio
Groundnut 3 5
7.7
18500
24640
6140
1.33
Castor 15 6
8.83
16250
32671
16421
2.01
Foxtail millet
12.3
7500
23000
15500
3.07
Field day on ‘foxtail cultivation’
Castor + pigeonpea (1:1) intercropping

36. Crop Diversification of Wheat with Maize and Bed Planting
20-25 % Saving in irrigation water
Conventional Raised Bed planting
Opportunity for crop diversification
Suitable for mechanical weeding & reduces herbicide use
Source: NATP Irrigated Ecosystem
CRIDA 36

37. Agro-forestry systems to provide more stable incomes during years of extreme weather events (eg.India)
CRIDA
Leucaena + Sunhemp
Neem + Cowpea
Faidherbia Albida+Sorghum
Guava + stylo
Mango + Greengram 37

38. Integrated fish-duck farming Rice-fish-poultry farming
Integrated Farming System modules
Minimize risk from a single enterprise in the face of natural calamities and diversified enterprises
Year round income to farmers in monocropped paddy growing areas and improve their livelihoods and resilience to extreme weather events.
Integrated fish-duck farming
Rice-fish-poultry farming

39. Declining apple yields in Himachal due to inadequate chilling
Shift in apple cultivation to higher elevations due to non fulfillment of chilling requirement and replace d with non-traditional horticulture
Source: HPKVV/ICAR network

40. Community Seedbank: Dubri, Assam
Intervention
Purpose
Maintenance of seed bank
Quality seed of submergence tolerant and short duration late transplanted rice varieties for flood affected area
Quality seed of summer rice and toria for rabi

41. Small Farm Mechanization through Custom Hiring Centers
TDC
Small Farm Mechanization through Custom Hiring Centers
Facilitates timely sowing operations in narrow windows of moisture availability
Precision planting, good germination and better crop stand
Access to small & marginal farmers of costly machinery
Crop residue recycling
Water saving, in situ moisture conservation
Increase in crop productivity
Labor saving
Multiple operations e.g. planter & rotavator
Most Popular Implements in CHCs
Zero till drill
Drum seeder
Rotavator
Happy seeder
Ridge & furrow planter
Multi crop planter
Multi crop thresher
Power tiller
Revenue generated: Rs. 18,00,000
Sustainability fund: 25% of revenue

42. VCRMC- Key institutional Intervention
Village Climate Risk Management Committees
constituted in all NICRA villages
Bank account opened for each VCRMC
Custom hiring centres for farm machinery setup in all NICRA villages
Proceeds of hire charges deposited in bank and managed by a sub committee
New enthusiasm due to financial empowerment of village institutions
Regular meetings held for resolving community related issues while implementing NICRA interventions

43. Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch
NRM interventions
In-situ measures Farm bunding with pucca waste weir, 41 farmers, 82 ha, convergence with DWDU
(Farmer Rs 1000)
Stop dams for community use (3)
Efficient use thro’ drip irrigation (convergence)
Recharging of wells
Border plantation (578 fruit plants)

44. Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch
Crop Inteventions
Cumin (GC-4), 170 demos, 68 ha, 32% increase, 9.5 vs 7.2 q/ha)
Cotton (drip irrigation), 20 farmers, 31 ha
Cluster bean (GG-2), 100 demos, 40 ha, 26% productivity increase (17.5 vs 13.8 q/ha)
Castor (GCH-7), 15 demos, 6 ha, 16% productivity increase (40 q vs 36.6 q/ha)

45. Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch
Livestock interventions
Improved shelter for livestock for heat stress (5 models)
Community fodder production – Dhaman grass
Breed improvement in the village (3 pure breed Kankrej bulls)
Cattle health, 678 animals, convergence with Dept.
Milk yield increased by 15-25% in the village

46. Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch
VCRMC
Custom hiring centre
Rs 30000
Fodder sorghum (Gundri) (860 kg), Lucerne (620 kg)
Seed bank
Community fodder bank, 380 animals, 142 livestock owners
Bank deposit Rs 3.25 lakhs
24 meetings,
Climate resilience in Bhalot village, Kutch
Zonal Monitoring Committee (ZMC) recommendations:
Mineral Nutrient Feed Blocks
Scaling up of seed & fodder bank

47. Simple agronomic options can increase adaptation

48. Conclusions Climate change is a reality
Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to climatic variability and climate change.
This will be one of the major factors influencing future food security.
Adaptation strategies including technological interventions, management practices, institutional and policy interventions can help minimize negative impacts.
Crop and/or land use diversification may be one of the proposition.
Under technology demonstration component of NICRA, a number of climate resilient practices and technologies have shown promising results.
Mainstreaming of these smart practices in NMSA has begun with a Policy Dialogue with the Ministry of Agriculture for its out scaling.
Initiative taken for follow-up of TDC on cluster village basis through National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change.
Need for evolving suitable insurance products for risk minimization and promote climate change mitigation and adaptation.

49. Thank you!