1. Capturing Revenues from Extractive Industries for Financing Structural Change FTC Annual Conference Lima 14-15 October

2. Example of Forgone Revenues: The Zambian Copper Sector No significant revenue capture both under private and public ownership Under state ownership – collapse of world markets, low investments Under private ownership it is a: 1.A result of contracts that provided generous terms to companies; and 2.Transfer pricing schemes.

3. 1. Generous contracts pre-2008 Mineral royalty rate of 0.6% Below the IMF’s own estimates of between 5% and 10% for developing countries No VAT charged on mine related transactions Capital expenditure had a deductible allowance of 100% Tax stability periods of up to 20 years The World Bank noted that the marginal effective tax rate was in the neighbourhood of 0%

4. 2. Transfer Pricing Companies registered in Switzerland have copper producing subsidiaries in Zambia A Zambian based subsidiary sells copper to its Swiss-based mother company at a price well below the market (so profits are not recorded in Zambia) The Swiss-based company sells the copper at world prices as if it originated from Switzerland Zambia lost US$17.3 billion (in real 2010 prices) in illicit capital flows between 1970 and 2010

5. Mineral Revenues (percent of total revenue )

6. Fiscal Revenue and Export Earnings

7. Actual and Counterfactual Revenue Flows (% of GDP)

8. Contrasting Examples: Botswana’s Revenue Capture Govt. of Botswana has a 15% share holding in De Beers Debswana Diamond Company, a De Beers – GoB joint venture (on 50/50 shareholding) and 80/20 revenue share (in favour of GoB)

9. Botswana: Revenue Utilization 93% of expenditure on education is public. School fees abolished: adult illiteracy rate fell by half (1980-2001) 61% of expenditure on health is public Maternal & under-five mortality rates less than 40% of the average for SS Africa Total roads network increased from 8,134km in 1991 to 25,798km in 2005

10. Revenues for Diversification: Indonesia Share of oil and gas in Indonesia’s public revenue fell from 49% in 1982 to 23% in 2005 Promoted exports of non-oil goods (textiles & footwear) through tax incentives, credit and subsidies 12% average annual growth rate of manufacturing (1965-2000)

11. Malaysia Focused on labour intensive high- skill manufacturing Selected products for exports (electronics, aircraft parts, building materials, furniture, chemicals etc.) Incentive measures were drawn up for each of these commodities - tax, credit, subsidy, mainly for SMEs

12. Thailand Focused on value addition (agro- processing) Flexible financing from commercial banks Exports of raw farm and marine products fell from 63% to 16.5% of total exports (1970-2000) Processed farm and marine products increased from 0.6% to 9.4%. (e.g. export tinned tuna, tinned fruit)

13. Chile Policy incentives were designed to promote the winery, horticulture and salmon fishing sectors Royalty payments from mining to fund R&D, technological transfer & diffusion, vocational education and training Established the Fund for Innovation and Competitiveness (FIC)

14. Policy Implications Strengthen contract negotiation and tax collection capacity Strengthen capacity to select key sectors to support through fiscal measures: tax, credit, subsidy incentives Policy lending or low interest finance, in an environment of underdeveloped financial sector Macroeconomic policies - exchange rate policy for export promotion But: Know when to exit and phase out industrial policies

15. Thank You degol.hailu@undp.org