1. 1 Strategy of electric power industry development in Russia for the period up to 2030 1 Director of OJSC «ENIN», Academician of RAS Eduard P. Volkov

2. 2 Main purposes of strategy Providing the energy security of the country. Increasing of the efficiency of production, transport, electricity distribution and usage up to the level of developed world countries. Providing the reliability of Russian power companies (UES of Russia) and the reliability of electricity supply of consumers on the level of developed countries. Fulfillment of environmental standards in accordance with the adopted international commitments and national standards.

3. 3 Basic economic conditions: forecasted growth of GDP by 2030 in 4.4 times in variant with 2000 TWh and in 6.4 times in variant with 3000 TWh A concept of accelerated development is adopted for 3000 TWh 3000 TWh – a formation of the world leadership in production of the materials of ligh-level processing in the basis of high-technological conversion of natural and power resources

4. 4 Levels of inside electricity consumption for 2000 GWh Concept of MEDT 2020 2030 Scenario 1 1410-1430 1770-1790 Scenario 2, 3 1630-1660 2150-2190 Variant 3 с 1740-1770 2400

5. 5 Heat production by centralized sources for 2000 TWh

6. 6 Production and export of gas and petroleum 20062010201520202030 Gas recovery, billion m 3 656.3702-717750-842815-900900-950 Gas export, billion m 3 202.8218-223243-303280-315283-320 Oil production million t 480492-514500-530500-545490-540 Oil export, million t 248.4254-269255-275255-280245-265

7. 7 Price conditions at the fuel markets: the world trend of oil price growth by 2030 up to 80-100 $ per barrel and output of inner gas prices for the equilibrium with Europe up to 2010 will change sharply the fuel supply of electric power industry

8. 8 Hydro energy potential Region Hydro energy potential, TWh Degree of hydro energy potential development by operating HES and HES under construction, % European part (with Ural) Eastern regions, including Siberia Far East Total 120 730 430 300 850 52.1 18.6 27.5 6.3 23.5

9. 9 Resources of non-traditional renewable sources in Russia ResourcesGross potential million tce/year Technical potential million tce/year Economic potential million tce/year Small hydro energy 360,4124,665,2 Geothermal energy **115* Biomass energy 10  10 3 5335 Wind energy 26  10 3 200010.0 Solar energy 2.3  10 6 230012.5 Low-potential heat 52511536 Total for RES 2.34  10 6 4592.6273.7 By approximate evaluation the geothermal energy resources in the upper width with a depth up to 3 km constitute about 180 trillion tce, while the natural resources for utilization - about 20 trillion tce. The evaluation of resources of primary development of thermal energy waters and steam hydrotherms using the geocirculating technology was assumed to be the economic potential.

10. 10 New technologies 1.Energy-technology plants. 2.Solid fuel gasification and use of combined cycle. 3.Nuclear-hydrogen power engineering. 4.Controlled transmission lines. 5.Technologies using the superconductivity phenomenon.

11. 11 Installed capacity of electric power stations (N, GW) and electricity generation (Е, billion kWh/year) in Russia (basic variant with 2000 TWh) 0 100 200 300 400 200520102015202020252030 N 1990199520002005 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 100 200 300 400 N Е Е 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 1990 – 2005 2005 – 2030 (forecasting) Installed capacity N, GW Electricity generation E, TWh/year

12. 12

13. 13 Development of generating capacities and electricity production at electric power stations of different types in 2005 – 2030 (basic variant) 2005 2010 2020 2030 Electricity generation, TWh Installed capacity, GWт

14. 14 2005 2010 2020 2030 TPP NPS HES&WPP 952 TWh in 2005 2080 TWh in 2030 Structure of electricity generation by electric power plants of different types, % (basic variant)

15. 15 Consumption of primary energy resources by electric power stations (basic variant) Year 20052030 mln. tce % % Total 396.4100687.5100 Incl. NPS 50.512.713720 HES&WPP 63.816.18912.9 gas 195.049.224034.9 solid fuel etc. 78.719.921030.5 mazut 8.48.42.12.111.51.71.7

16. 16 Development of UES electric grids (1) UES and powerful regional power systems are mainly constructed as the balanced ones. Current density in the newly designed transmission lines must be decreased in 1.5-2 timed for decreasing the available considerable electricity losses in the electric networks. The controlled devices will be used in the necessary amounts (controlled shunting reactors, thyristor static compensators, longitudinal capacity compensation, unified regulators of power flow, phase shifters, STATCOMs; asynchronous communication interface adapters – dc links, electromechanical converters; energy storages). The main direction of Russian UES development is a strengthening of the structure of its main electrical grid. The capacity of intersystem ties between IPS must be substantially increased. The superconducting devices, first of all, cables, energy storage, current-limiting devices will be used in prospect.

17. 17 Development of UES electric grids (2) Creation of East-West bridge in some directions (Northern, Central, Southern). Integration of UES of Russia with the unified energy systems of other countries, formation in prospect of powerful electric energy chain: Japan – China – Siberia – Kazakhstan – European part of Russia – other CIS countries – European countries and creation of Eurasian super power unification. The capacities of intersystem ties in the forming Eurasian power unification must be sufficient for providing the security of combined operation of power systems forming it, provide the economically sound exchanges and the efficiency of functioning the formed common electricity market at Eurasian continent. Energy support of global infrastructural projects of gas supply, oil supply, railway and automobile networks.

18. 18 General volumes 1 Construction of OTL with voltage 110 kV and higher, 92 thous. km including OTL with voltage 330 kV and higher 34 thous. km 2 Modification and technical updating of OTL with voltage 110 kV and higher 22 thous. km 3 Ggeneral volumes of constructing substations with voltage 110 kV and higher, 714 mln. kVA Including the substations with voltage 330 kV and higher 150 mln. kVA 4 Modification and technical updating of substations with voltage 110 kV and higher 202 mln. kVA Evaluation of the volumes of constructing the transmission lines on 110 kV and higher for the period up to 2030 in variant with 2000 TWh, thous. km

19. 19 Layout of main inside and outside intersystem connection of UES of Russia

20. 20 Estimates of necessary demands of investments in development of electric power industry (billon $), for variant with 2000 TWh Capacities putting into operation and capital investments Objects of lectric power engineering Capacities being put into operation in 2006-2030, GW Capital investments, Billion $. NPS48.7 98 HES and WPP45.090 TPP173.6198 Total at electric power stations 267.3386 Electrical networks 204 Total 590

21. 21 Main expected results of realizing strategy with 2000 TWh 1.Technical updating and renovation of electric power industry on the basis of new technologies. 2.Increasing of power supply reliability 3.Provision of general balancing of UES. 4.Creation of mechanisms for sustainable development of electric power industry. 5.Integration of electric power industry of Russia in Eurasian super power unification. 6.Energy support of global infrastructural projects of gas- and oil- supply systems, railway and automobile networks. 7.Reliable power supply of large cities, huge towns and industrial centers.

22. 22 Thank you very much for your attention volkov@eninnet.ru 7-495-955-3100 ENIN