1. A RECONSTRUCTION of EMISSIONS, PATHWAYS and DEPOSITIONS of GASOLINE LEAD in EUROPE, 1958-1997 Hans von Storch, Mariza Costa-Cabral, Frauke Feser, Charlotte Hagner Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center Geesthacht, Germany 12th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology, Norfolk, Va., 2-22 May 2002

2. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Motivation 1.Prototypical example of a reconstructing of flow and deposition of anthropogenic matter on the regional scale (50 - 1000 km). 2.Lead is chosen because the substance is during its aerial transport almost inert – that is, the problem is technically less challenging than with, say, mercury or POPs. 3.Lead is also chosen because of the highly variable emissions, with an unabated increase until about 1970 and several political regulations in the 1970s and 1980s, which ended with the out-phasing of lead in gasoline.

3. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Lead emission Total gasoline sale Consumption of gasoline in Germany (mio.litres) and associated lead emissions (tons) Political regulation in 1971, 1975 and 1985.

4. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Strategy 1.Estimation of lead emissions in time and space (Europe), 1955-1995 2.Regionalisation of NCEP re-analyses with regional climate model, 1958-1997 3.Transport and deposition of lead on a 50 km x 50 km grid in Europe, 1958-1997 4.Comparision of simulated atmospheric concentrations and depositions with limited evidence. 5.Assessment of deposition in Baltic Sea and cross- boundary flow, and of human blood levels. 6.Assessment of lead concentrations in organisms and plants

5. Estimated lead emissions (from Pacyna and Pacyna, 2000) 1955 1995 1955 1975 Up to 75% of the emissions related to leaded gasoline

6. Atmospheric concentration

7. deposition Calculated depositions 1995

8. Mean annual Pb air concentration at Schauinsland, Germany. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K validation

9. Lead deposition flux at Storelung Mose, Staaby, Denmark estimated from peat profile measurement and dating (red) [Goodsite et al., 2001] and using coupled computer models of regional climate and atmospheric transport and deposition (blue). Institut für Küstenforschung I f K validation

10. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Model as a constructive tool model estimate

11. Lead concentrations in human blood in Germany Institut für Küstenforschung I f K [ m g/l] Concentrations in various samples and a statistical estimate samples estimate Model as a constructive tool

12. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Data source: Umweltprobenbank 1999b Lead concentrations (  g/g) in spruce (Picea abies) sprouts and poplar (Populus nigra) leaves in urban areas in Saarland, 1985-1996 But concentrations in aquatic organism remain stationary since about 1980.

13. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Lead concentration (mg/kg) in Blue Mussels (Mytilus Edulis) in the North Sea, 1982-1997 Data source: Ministry of Ecology of Niedersachsen 1999 * Sample stations: Bantsbalje ( 53°34’/ 7°01’); Borkum ( 53°35.4’/ 6°47.84’); Cuxhaven Leitdamm ( 53°53.05’/ 8°41.03’); Elmshörn Rinne ( 53°29.05’/ 6°54.00’); Mellumbalje ( 53°41.09’/ 8 °08.08’)

14. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Conclusions Reconstruction of regional environmental change is doable with dynamical regional environmental models. The environmental impact of past political and economic evolutions may be assessed quantitatively by a retrospective analysis. Scenarios of environmental impact of possible future socio-economic developments are possible to be constructed. Lead reduction in gasoline was successful in reducing the presence of lead in the atmosphere, in terrestrial ecosystems and in men. In aquatic ecosystems the increase of concentrations has been halted at a level well above the natural level.