1. Pigs and Pig Meat Michael A Martin Specialist Pig Development Officer Situation and Outlook Conference 2008

2. Pig Development Unit Outline 1. Margin over Feed Costs 2. Non Feed Costs 3. Production 4. Crisis 5. Price Prospects 6. Feed Prospects

3. Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed Costs 1991-2007 Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices

4. Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed Cost Average for Period C per kg dead weight 1991-200747.6 1998-200746.1 1998-200244.6 2003-200747.6 Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices

5. Pig Development Unit Margin over Feed Cost Average margin has been 47.6c per kg dead weight Margin required to break even was 200645c 200746.3c Source: PigSys Report 2007

6. Pig Development Unit Non Feed Costs Low profitability means that some non feed costs are deferred Manure costs set to increase from 2011 Capital investment in dry sow housing by 2013 means higher interest and building depreciation charges Units need capital investment

7. Pig Development Unit Pig Prices and Feed Costs per kg 2007-8

8. Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed per kg Dead 2007-8 20072008 Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices

9. Pig Development Unit Financial Losses July 07-June 08 Non feed costs per kg c 46.3 Margin over Feed per kg c 33.2 Loss per kg c 13.1 Loss per 75 kg pig € 9.83 Loss on 3.11m head €million 30.6

10. Pig Development Unit Margin Over Feed per kg Dead 2007-8 20072008

11. Pig Development Unit Finisher Pig Prices 2007-8 20072008 Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices WK 49

12. Pig Development Unit Production Teagasc estimate a decline of 5500 sows from Jan 2007 CSO show herd 8000 sows less than Teagasc estimate Sow Herd Source Sows + Served Gilts CSO June 2008 139,200 Teagasc PDU 147,500

13. Pig Development Unit Sow Productivity PigSys recorded herds are producing 1.75 pigs more per sow per year than those in unrecorded herds Source No. Pigs Produced / Sow / Year 2003-7 National Data 20.9 PigSys22.1 Non PigSys 20.3

14. Pig Development Unit Pig Slaughterings: All Ireland Very small decrease in kill in Jan-Sept 2008 Over latest 13 weeks average weekly kill was 75,023 down from 76990 in 2007 First 39 weeks 20072008 Republic1,9451,912 N. Ireland 959963 Total2,9052,875 DAFF and DARDNI

15. Pig Development Unit What Needs to be Done Now? Recommence pig slaughtering immediately – financial and pig welfare Restore consumer confidence in Irish pig meat Reclaim home and export markets Maintain pig kill – no build up of pigs on units Recovery plan for each unit

16. Pig Development Unit Pig Price Prospects EU pig meat supplies will be reduced in 2009 Quarter Forecast Compared to Previous Year % 2008 3 - 1.4 4 - 4.7 2009 1 - 4.5 2 - 2.9 EU Pig Meat Forecasts

17. Pig Development Unit Feed Price Prospects Cereal prices are considerably lower than 2007 Week 47 20072008 Britain (HGCA) Wheat201105 Barley198102 France (IFIP) Wheat222136 Barley223116 Maize206125

18. Pig Development Unit Summary Sector is facing serious difficulties Economic climate impacts on prospects Feed prices to decline but GM approval issue remains Non feed costs to increase Pig supplies reduced Difficult year ahead

19. Thank You