1. Enrollment Projections CBO Mentor Program January 2009 1

2. 2 Enrollment Projections Straight line Projection

3. What is the purpose of the projection? Short term 1 to 2 Years (For Budgetary and staffing purposes, tends to be conservative) Medium Range 3 to 5 Years (For Boundary stability) Long Range 5 to 10 Years (for facility or school construction needs) The purpose of the projection will help define the methodology 3

4. Factors that Influence Enrollment  Boundary changes and new or closing schools  Changes or additions to programs  Change to grade configurations  Employment shifts  Magnet/Charter/Private Schools  Birth rates  Residential construction/demolition  Move in/out of families in existing homes  Drop-outs  Changes in school capacities  Transfer students  NCLB PI schools 4

5. Good Economy 5

6. But when things go wrong… Land! 6

7. A Simple Solution Cohort - Survival  Short-term projection method Required by state for eligibility SAB50-01  Based purely on a weighted mathematical formula assuming enrollment changes in the past will continue into the future  May be A BIG ASSUMPTION! 7

8. Enrollment Projections – Cohort Survival The enrollment projection method used by most educational agencies is the cohort survival technique. This technique uses a grade regression ratio (GRR), which is the quotient obtained by dividing the current enrollment of one grade level into the next higher grade level one year later. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade level to the next, and accounts for retention, dropouts, and migration, grade by grade. Cohort Survival predicts what will happen in the future based on what happened in the past. 8

9. A Closer look at Cohort - Survival 100 Grade 1 Enrollment 105 Grade 2 Enrollment 2007 2008 80 Grade 1 Enrollment ?? Grade 2 Enrollment 2008 2009 9

10. Cohort – Survival Pro and Con Pro  Simple formula/simple explanation  Valid for short term projections  Valid for areas with stable/consistent change  School projections using cohorts take into consideration intradistrict student transfers: valid for short-term staffing needs Con  Lumps all factors influencing projections into a mathematical formula.  4 years of data/3 years of change: valid for only short-term projections  K changes based upon historical K  Poor method for areas of residential growth/changes (suburban)  School-based projections lose validity when boundary changes affect historical enrollment data stream  Projections lose validity when education policy changes (i.e.. magnet schools, program changes at site, etc.) affect historical enrollment data stream at individual school sites 10

11. When you need something more… …Then it’s time to get into the dirty details of projections. 11

12. What goes into a projection? Short & Medium Term Current StudentsFuture Students 12

13. Factors that effect enrollment  Drop outs  In and out Migration  Private and Charter Schools  Immigration  Changing Birth rates  Residential construction of demolition  Student Yield from new construction  Transfer students (Open enrollment, Inter, Intra) 13

14. A More Detailed Methodology Study Area Concept Small areas to analyze demographic changes over time independent of attendance boundary shifts Projections at this level can be used to shift boundaries for analyzing opening/closing of school sites 14

15. Map of Study Areas 15

16. A Projection Methodology Graduate 12th grade; move up other grades Increase/decrease future K classes based upon changes in births within the last 5 years Add enrollment generated by new construction Modify enrollment as grades progress each year based upon a cohort factor calculated from historical enrollment in areas with no new construction (addresses in/out migration, drop-outs and private school movement) 16

17. Geocoding Students 17

18. Housing tracts 18

19. Housing Tract Data 19

20. Student Yield Each dot represents a family, there are 83 students represented by these dots. There are 96 parcels in this small area. 83/96 =.86 20

21. Migration Analysis 21

22. Study Area Projection No migration factors and no new housing 22

23. Study Area Projection Small negative Migration factor and no new housing 23

24. Study Area Projection Small negative Migration factor and new housing 24

25. District Projection 25

26. Birthrates +5 years 26

27. Birthrates +5 years 27

28. Enrollment Projections – Kindergarten Del Norte “County” Unified School District 28 Source: DataQuest and Center for Health Statistics

29. Enrollment Projections – Kindergarten Other School Districts in County or Area Percentage of CBEDS to County Live Births ie. 20% if 5 districts in County and equal in size Information by Zip Code Same analysis as with County Data except by Zip 29 Source: Center for Health Statistics

30. DataQuest information 30

31. Class Exercise Demonstration of Excel Spreadsheet Calculate enrollment projections based on information provided 31

32. Procedures for Boundary Changes Student Housing Committee Steering Committee Full Committee Public Presentations Initial presentation Detailed presentation 32

33. Procedures for School Closures Student Housing Committee Steering Committee Full Committee Public Presentations Initial presentation Detailed presentation All heck breaking loose………. 33

34. Example of Public Presentation 34

35. The Clovis West Area 35

36. Millerton New Town Development 520 elementary students projected for the Clovis West Area in the next 6 yrs 36

37. Copper River Development 324 elementary students projected for the Clovis West Area in the next 6 yrs. 37

38. CUSD Master Facility Plan from 2006-2012 Clovis North HS & Granite Ridge IS open in fall of 2007 Rank Elementary open in fall of 2007 Dakota/Armstrong School opens in fall of 2009 Future Sites under consideration after 2012 –Millerton New Town –NW Urban Village (2 sites in the Clovis General Plan) –Shields/Locan Site –4 th Ed Center Site 38

39. The Solution: 850 new students are projected from developments in the Clovis West Area over the next 6 years There is space available in the existing elementary schools in the CW Area to handle this growth: –CW Elementary Enrollment capacity: 4950 –Current enrollment in CW Elem. Schools: 3955 –Spaces available for new students: 995 39

40. Student Housing Decision Timeline 8/06SH Planning Steering Committee begins meeting 10/06District Elementary Student Housing Committee Meetings begin & continue until recommendation 11/06 & 08Community Forums to intro the process 2/07Student Housing Recommendation is posted on the District website 3/072 nd Community Forums are held 4/07Recommendation is made to Supt. Cabinet 5/07Supt. Cabinet makes recommendation to the Gov. Board 6/07Board approves boundary changes 8/08New elementary boundaries go into effect for the Clovis and Clovis West Areas 40

41. The Student Housing Committee Process Who serves on the Student Housing Steering Committee? Who serves on the District Student Housing Committee? Who serves on the Superintendent’s Cabinet? 41

42. Guiding Principles November 1, 2006 The following “Guiding Principles” will serve as a “filter” for boundary change options to address future growth in the CW Area: Attempt to: Utilize all existing school facilities to their enrollment capacity Accommodate future enrollment growth within existing elementary school facilities before considering building new schools Maintain existing secondary boundaries Create boundaries that will last at least 6 years Optimize academic and co-curricular opportunities for students at all existing elementary schools 42

43. Community Input Tonight Your elementary Principal will facilitate discussion of the following topics: –What are your question and/or concerns about the Boundary Change Process? –What would you like the 2006 Student Housing Committee to consider during their study? 43

44. Community Connection to the Student Housing Process 1.District Web Site 2.Elementary School News Letters 3.CUSD Today 4.Clovis Independent & Fresno Bee 5.School Site SART 44

45. Thank You! Our Next Community Forum will be in March 2007 45

46. Resources DecisionInsite – Process paper Michael Dodge’s Spreadsheet 46