1. 1 Alternative Energy Strategies Transitions to renewables and supply security Philip Peck IIIEE at Lund University, Sweden II Energy Club meeting, Minsk, Belarus, 11 March 2010

2. Peck, March 2010 2 Idea generation – thought provocation Can political will and ‘comparative advantage’ shift a national energy mix ?  Rapidly?  In several sectors? Can a country substitute TWh scale volumes of gas with renewable gas?  Example 1 – Mobilising biomass resources at large scale  Example 2 – Looking for opportunities for ‘cleaner’ fossil fuel systems

3. Peck, March 2010 3 Energy security I... (my view...) Secure fuel supply from diverse sources: to ensure that there is sufficient fuel to meet demand, and that there are alternative fuel sources if one fails Sufficient amounts of generation or supply to compensate for unforeseen plant failures Diverse means of generation: to provide security against any fuel shortages and generic faults in one particular form of generation

4. Peck, March 2010 4 Energy security II... (my view...) Reliable energy infrastructure: to ensure that energy is transported to the point of use effectively Flexibility in use: the ability to reduce demand if necessary, or to use an alternative form of energy Maximum energy efficiency at point of use eg buildings, vehicles and appliances

5. 5 Shift an energy mix? Can political will and ‘comparative advantage’ shift an energy mix ?

6. Peck, March 2010 6. Decentralized CHP (orange). Wind mill park (green). Centralized CHP (red) Denmark 1980 --- Denmark 2005

7. Peck, March 2010 7 Denmark... Dramatic shift 1988  Decentralised CHP in the West Danish power grid150MW  Total wind 100 MW. 2004  Decentralised CHP 1600 MW  Wind 3125 MW, 18.5% electricity supply. 2007  Wind 3125 MW, 19.7% supply. Driven by policies that reduced risks for investors in new technologies, and provided CHP, renewables and waste priority access to the grid

8. Danish power system (1988-2004) Peck, March 2010 8 Risø Energy Report 4 Flexibility, stability and security of energy supply, POUL SøRENSEN, PETER MEIBOM, PER NøRGåRD, RISø NATIONAL LABORATORy, DENMARK

9. Decentralised CHP in Denmark Peck, March 2010 9

10. 10 MASNEDØ CHP plant Denmark 18000 households 40Ktpa straw 8.3MW e 21MW h

11. Peck, Lund, Oct. 2009 11 Wind Straw Other agricultural waste

12. 12 Sweden Multiple shifts since 1970

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19. 19 Agricultural waste Straw – a natural starting point for agricultural economies

20. Peck, March 2010 20 Net straw surplus/deficit (1000 tonnes/region) estimated from national studies and cattle breeding data (Eurostat: Spain – year 2002, Bulgaria – year 2001, other countries - year 2003)

21. Peck, March 2010 21 40 MW straw plants feasible in EU 200ktpa (40MW) reserve 50% transport radius 50 km. Key ingredients for an efficient system 1.Harvest waste 2.Heat sinks

22. 22 Large volumes renewable gas? Can a country substitute TWh scale volumes of gas with renewable gas?

23. Peck, March 2010 23 Gothenburg Energy plant CoBiGas – synthetic biogas from gasified biofuels  Transportation fueld  Industrial processes  Combined heat and power 100 MW gas... circa 800 GWh/år. Gasification plant  2 stages – 1st (ca 20 MW) 2010-2012,  2nd (ca 80 MW) 2013-2015.

24. Peck, March 2010 24 Sweden’s road transportation fuels Petrol (Gasoline) – circa 50TWh Diesel – circa 20 TWh Some rough figures.... feasible figures Biogas potential (waste + dedicated crops) 15TWh Synthetic biogas potential (forestry waste) 25TWh

25. Peck, March 2010 25 Some rough estimates 100MW 100 MW capacity...operational year...circa 1 TWh 250 000t wood..... Circa 1 TWh 500 000t straw..... Circa 1 Twh 600m 50m 15m Timber (roundwood)

26. Peck, March 2010 26 This much wood every year? (200MW capacity?) ~ 500 000m 3 solid wood (???)

27. Peck, March 2010 27 Can large plantation forestry produce results quickly? (Australia) Tax scheme 1997 10 years of plantings at 70 000ha/year Eucalyptus Landuse change >700 000 ha farmland (650mm to 750mm annual rainfall zone) – now carbon sink. 10-15 year pulp wood cycle, 20-30 year saw log cycle First pellet plants (slash and harvest waste) online 2008-2010 (13 x 125ktpa modules in 6-8 locations) First contracts with European Power utilities for pellet supply 2009 Within 5 years 1.6 Mtpa pellets Roughly 8TWh --- or sufficient to cofire 10% wood pellets in 8 x 1000MW capacity coal fired plants

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29. Peck, Lund, Oct. 2009 29 A demonstration BTL plant in Germany (15ktpa) ….. Multiply by 10 ?

30. Peck, Lund, Oct. 2009 30 Or this much wood ?? "Mount Byholma" --- storm fellings 900 000m 3 timber Piles 13 meters high & 2 km long Foto: Göranssons Åkeri.

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32. Peck, Lund, Oct. 2009 32 Fischer Tropsch plant 1Mtpa

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