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Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21, 2013 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21, 2013 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21, 2013 1

2 US agricultural exports projected at record high Bil $ FY 2013 exports: $142.0 b FY 2013 imports: 112.5 b Net trade bal: 29.5 b Fiscal year

3 China remains top destination for US agricultural exports for 2 nd straight year Bil $ Fiscal year

4 Soybeans and cotton account for two- thirds of US agricultural exports to China Bil $

5 Export values forecast up in FY 2013 for most commodity categories

6 But export volumes flat or down for most commodities +7.4% +2.7% -37.5%-4.7% -4.1% -2.0% n/c-0.6% Mil mt

7 Brazil corn exports to surpass U.S. exports? Source: USDA-FAS monthly trade circular, Grain: World Markets and Trade, February 8, 2013

8 Global ending stocks tighten for grains Crop 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/122012/13 Days of use Wheat769611211010496 Corn626965555450 Rice697779818480 Soybeans8372931018084 Upland Cotton 187208144156245281 lowest since 1973/74

9 China builds cotton inventory Million bales

10 Much of area exiting CRP is located in Plains states Acres Source: Farm Service Agency

11 Planted acres projected to decline in 2013 Million acres Crop2007200820092010201120122013F Percent change Corn93.586.086.488.291.997.296.5-0.7 Soybeans64.775.777.577.475.077.277.5+0.4 Wheat60.563.259.253.654.455.756.0+0.5 Upland cotton10.59.39.010.814.412.19.8-19.0 Minor feed grains15.515.813.611.410.612.612.9+2.4 Rice2.83.03.13.62.7 2.6-3.7 Total 8 crops247.5253.0248.7245.0249.0257.5255.3-0.9 CRP36.834.633.731.431.229.527.1-8.1 8 crops + CRP284.3287.6282.4276.4280.2287.0282.4-1.6

12 Drought persists across much of the United States

13 Corn and soybean production projected to rebound in 2013 CropUnit20122013Change CornMil bu10,78014,53034.8% SoybeansMil bu3,0153,40512.9% CottonMil bales17.014.0-17.7% RiceMil cwt199.5192.0-3.8% WheatMil bu2,2692,100-7.4%

14 Preseason precipitation and Iowa corn yields Corr= 0.059

15 Weekly ethanol production below RFS caps for conventional biofuels Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

16 US corn use for ethanol rebounds, but below 5 billion bushels Percent Mil bushels

17 Motor gasoline use projected to decline Source: DOE--Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook Bil gal

18 Commodity prices fall from record levels Crop2009/102010/112011/122012/132013/14F% Change 2011-12 Wheat4.875.707.247.907.00 -11.4% Corn3.555.186.227.204.80 -33.3% Soybeans9.5911.3012.5014.3010.50 -26.6% Rice14.4012.7014.5014.9015.20 +2.0% Cotton62.981.588.371.073.0 +2.8% Source: USDA-NASS and Office of the Chief Economist, February 2013 Wheat, corn and soybeans in dollars per bushel; rice in dollars per hundredweight; cotton in cents per pound. Numbers in red denote record levels.

19 High feed costs keep feed ratios at low levels Dairy and Broilers Hogs

20 Livestock, dairy and poultry prices projected to increase in 2013 Animal products 20092010201120122013F% Change 2012-13 Dollars per cwt Cattle83.2595.38114.73122.86129.50 5.4 Hogs41.2455.0666.1160.8863.00 3.5 Broilers77.6082.9079.9086.695.00 9.7 Milk12.8316.2620.1418.5119.25 4.0 Source: Office of the Chief Economist, February 2013 20 Prices in red denote record levels.

21 Food CPI to rise in 2013 but likely to remain below levels in 2008 and 2011 ERS forecast: 3.0-4.0% for 2013

22 Net cash income projected to fall in 2013, but remain high relative to historical levels Bil dollars

23 Net cash income projected to fall for most crop producers $ thou Source: Economic Research Service

24 Net cash income for livestock producers expected to decline in 2013 $ thou Source: Economic Research Service

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