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Identifying Global Economic Opportunities ….. the next steps Prof. Jamaluddin Husain Purdue University Calumet, USA Symposium on: EMERGING TRENDS, THREATS.

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Presentation on theme: "Identifying Global Economic Opportunities ….. the next steps Prof. Jamaluddin Husain Purdue University Calumet, USA Symposium on: EMERGING TRENDS, THREATS."— Presentation transcript:

1 Identifying Global Economic Opportunities ….. the next steps Prof. Jamaluddin Husain Purdue University Calumet, USA Symposium on: EMERGING TRENDS, THREATS & OPPORTUNITIES June-18-2011 @ Houston, TX

2 ASSUMPTIONS: 1. We wish to identify investment & business opportunities in “countries of opportunities” 2. Most of us would be interested in “active investment” possibilities, i.e., where we have personal involvement & control over our investment/business

3 IDENTIFYING “COUNTRIES OF OPPORTUNITY” PERSONAL CRITERIA could be: a.Language preferences b.Country of origin; presence of family c.Religious factors, like JKs, etc. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS could be: d.Political stability e.Linguistic ease, flexibility f.Economic Stage of the country, etc. 3June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

4 COUNTRIES WITH “AKDN” PRESENCE 1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Canada 6. Congo (Dem Rep of) 7. Ivory Coast 8. Egypt 9. India 10. Kazakhstan 11. Kenya 12. Kyrgyz Republic 13. Madagascar 14. Mali 15. Mozambique 16. Pakistan 17. Portugal 18. Switzerland 19. Syria 20. Tajikistan 21. Tanzania (& Zanzibar) 22. Uganda 23. United Kingdom 24. United States 4June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

5 (*) DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (**) POLITICALLY UNSTABLE COUNTRIES 1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Canada (*) 6. Congo (Dem Rep of) 7. Ivory Coast 8. Egypt (**) 9. India 10. Kazakhstan 11. Kenya 12. Kyrgyz Republic 13. Madagascar 14. Mali 15. Mozambique 16. Pakistan 17. Portugal 18. Switzerland (*) 19. Syria (**) 20. Tajikistan 21. Tanzania (& Zanzibar) 22. Uganda 23. United Kingdom (*) 24. United States (*) 5June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

6 POLITICALLY STABLE “DEVELOPING” COUNTRIES 1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Congo (Dem Rep of) 6. Ivory Coast 7. India 8. Kazakhstan 9. Kenya 10. Kyrgyz Republic 11. Madagascar 12. Mali 13. Mozambique 14. Pakistan 15. Portugal 16. Tajikistan 17. Tanzania (& Zanzibar) 18. Uganda 6June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

7 COUNTRIES with no JKs 1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. Bosnia-Herzegovina 4. Burkina Faso 5. Congo (Dem Rep of) 6. Ivory Coast 7. India 8. Kazakhstan 9. Kenya 10.Kyrgyz Republic 11. Madagascar 12. Mali 13. Mozambique 14. Pakistan 15. Portugal 16. Tajikistan 17. Tanzania 18. Uganda 7June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

8 “AKDN” COUNTRIES + JK 1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. India 4. Kenya 5. Madagascar 6. Mozambique 7. Pakistan 8. Portugal 9. Tajikistan 10. Tanzania 11. Uganda 8June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

9 COUNTRIES WITH “LANGUAGE” ISSUES 1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. India 4. Kenya 5. Madagascar 6. Mozambique 7. Pakistan 8. Portugal 9. Tajikistan 10. Tanzania 11. Uganda 9June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

10 The LANGUAGE FACTOR OFFICIAL LANGUAGES 1. Afghanistan……PUSHTO & DARRI 2. Bangladesh ……BENGALI & ENGLISH 3. India……HINDI & ENGLISH 4. Kenya……SWAHILI & ENGLISH 5. Pakistan ……URDU & ENGLISH 6. Tajikistan ……TAJIKI 7. Tanzania……SWAHILI & ENGLISH 8. Uganda ……ENGLISH 10June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

11 “PREFERRED” COUNTRIES LIST 1. Afghanistan 2. Bangladesh 3. India 4. Kenya 5. Pakistan 6. Tajikistan 7. Tanzania 8. Uganda 11June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

12 ECONOMIC SCREENS A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3 B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP); GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends C.FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) D.EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings (*) “www.doingbusiness.org” 12June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

13 3 x ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES 1.FACTOR DRIVEN – primarily extractive in nature; unexploited natural resources 2. EFFICIENCY DRIVEN – exhibit scale-intensity as a major driver of development 3. I NNOVATION DRIVEN – characterized by their production of new & unique goods & services that are created via sophisticated & often pioneering methods 13June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

14 “ECONOMIC STAGES” BASED ON?? PRIMARILY BASED ON: G DP per capita & share of exports of primary goods in total exports of the country June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain14

15 ECONOMIC SCREENS A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3 B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP); GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends C.FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) D.EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings “www.doingbusiness.org” 15June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

16 GDP Per Capita US$ COUNTRY 2008 … 2002 2001 Aghanistan 405... 175 102 Bangladesh 497 … 326 328 India 1,067 … 484 463 Kenya 738 … 397 402 Pakistan 955... 499 511 Tajikistan 716... 194 173 Tanzania 503... 309 305 Uganda 490 … 237 232 United States 45,989 … 36,797 35,898

17 ECONOMIC SCREENS A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3 B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP); GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends C.FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) D.EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings “www.doingbusiness.org” 17June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

18 FDI -- Net Inflows US$ Millions COUNTRY 2008 2007 … 2002 2001 Aghanistan 300 243... 50 ~ 0 Bangladesh 1,010 653 … 52 78 India 41,315 25,127 … 5,7717,606 Kenya 96 729 … 28 5 Pakistan 5,438 5,590... 823 383 Tajikistan 376 360... 36 9 Tanzania 400 647... 388 388 Uganda 729 792... 185 151 USA 328,334 271,211 … 84,370 167,020 18June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

19 ECONOMIC SCREENS A. ECONOMIC STAGES of COUNTRIES x 3 B. Gross Domestic Product (GDP); GDP per Capita; growth patterns/trends C.FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) D.EASE OF DOING BUSINESS rankings “www.doingbusiness.org” 19June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

20 EASE OF DOING BUSINESS 10 x factors 1.Starting (Time, Cost, Procedures, etc.) 2.Dealing with Construction Permits 3.Employing workers 4.Registering property 5.Getting credit 6.Protecting Investors 7. Paying Taxes 8. Trading across borders 9. Enforcing Contracts 10.Closing a business June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain20

21 EASE OF STARTING & DOING BUSINESS STARTING DOING 1. Afghanistan … 25 … 167 2. Bangladesh … 79 … 107 … 3. India …… 165 … 134 4. Kenya..… 125 … 98 5. Pakistan … 85 … 83 6. Tajikistan … 136 … 139 … 7. Tanzania … 122 … 128 8. Uganda … 137 … 122 9. USA… 5 … 5 21June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

22 THE NEXT STEPS A. Other countries to think about? -- New Zealand; Australia; Indonesia; B.Other people’s experiences (C.A.S.E. method….. :) C.Seek advice from professionals D. Visits countries of choice 22June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

23 COUNTRIES WITH GOOD LIFE-STYLES? HOW ABOUT: NEW ZEALAND AUSTRALIA PAPUA NEW GUINEA SOUTH AFRICA INDONESIA June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain23

24 » AFGHANISTAN » TAJIKISTAN » AFRICA (K/T/U/R/B/M/M/SA) » BANGLADESH June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain24

25 C.A.S.E. studies Russia  Tajikistan USA  Pakistan Pakistan  Bangladesh USA/Dubai  Pakistan USA  Brazil USA  Tanzania (FMCG) USA  Bangladesh 25June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

26 DO’sThink LONG-TERM 2-3 yrs is NOT long-term Think BIG $100K …not BIG enough Local PARTNERS ? Maybe a good idea Start with Trading (Imp/Exp) Low ENTRY & EXIT barriers 26June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

27 DON’Ts Don’t be shocked by SURPRIZES Don’t RUSH - take your time Don’t burn your bridges Don’t raise your expectations Don’t think short-term 27June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

28 OPIC LARGER INVESTERS & THOSE LESS INTERESTED IN ACTIVE INVOLVEMENT MAY WANT TO STUDY WHAT THE “OVERSEAS PRIVATE INVESTMENT CORPORATION” aka “OPIC” HAS TO OFFER (See handout) 28June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

29 THANK YOU! 773-531-4000 jhhusain@gmail.com jhhusain@purduecal.edu 29June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

30 ??? » Airports » Customs » Bureaucracy » Due Diligence » FMCG » Knowing the Ropes » Connections » Corruption, etc. 30June-18-2011 Houston-EPB-JHusain

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