1. Present Status of Software for Site Specific Fertilizer Recommendations and Future Outlook for improving its Scope and Precision

2. Crop Production Regions in Punjab CPR-1 (Cotton-Wheat) Multan, Lodhran, Khanewal, Vehari, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, D.G.Khan CPR-2 (Rice-Wheat) Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujrat, Mandi Baha-ud-Din CPR-3 (Mixed Crops) Sahiwal, Pakpattan, Okara, Kasur, Lahore, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Jhang, Chiniot, Sargodha CPR-4 ( Thal) (Pulses-Wheat) Layyah, Bhakkar, Khushab, Mianwali CPR-5 (Rainfed) (Maize-Wheat/Oilseeds) Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Rawalpindi, Islamabad

3. Soil Fertility status of Punjab soils Organic Matter (%) Available Phosphorus (%) Available Potassium (%) Low Medium HighLow Medium HighLow Medium High CPR-I 8613174233112960 CPR-II 7719478202284824 CPR-III 8116365305846 CPR-IV 91818513265323 CPR-V 8513286122196615

4. MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCY (%)

5. Summarized N balance Sheet Nitrogen (Kg/ha) Year 85-8695-9600-0105-0608-09 CPR-I -14.88.6-7.23.62.9 CPR-II -12.3-2.0-19.70.25.7 CPR-III -10.27.6-9.6 -19.7 CPR-IV -7.4-8.2-13.1-16.2-11.6 CPR-V -18.3-18.9-14.6-25.4 Punjab -12.42.4-6.6-3.8-9.1

6. Summarized P balance Sheet Phosphorus (Kg/ha) Year 85-8695-9600-0105-0608-09 CPR-I -12.7-12.8-24.9-25.1-26.5 CPR-II -12.1-13.1-23.2-21.2-25.1 CPR-III -12.2-12.0-23.3-28.7-33.0 CPR-IV -7.1-8.6-14.2-17.2-15.9 CPR-V -8.3-9.3-10.8-17.3-19.9 Punjab -11.4-11.8-19.8-22.5-27.0

7. Summarized K balance Sheet Potassium (Kg/ha) Year 85-8695-9600-0105-0608-09 CPR-I -28.8-35.0-50.1-56.4-62.6 CPR-II -7.0-4.0-38.5-41.1-50.7 CPR-III -26.5-30.5-51.1-71.3-82.7 CPR-IV -22.7-28.0-32.8-44.6-32.4 CPR-V -35.1-37.9-32.8-50.3-55.6 Punjab -24.2-27.9-45.6-56.5-63.5

8. Use of N, P & K (Kg/ ha) in Punjab Year NitrogenPhosphorusPotassium 71-72 20.12.2- 79-80 43.012.40.4 89-90 70.319.22.0 99-00 93.726.00.7 04-05 116.538.81.4 05-06 124.836.81.2 06-07 107.041.01.9 07-08 120.826.01.2 08-09 124.427.21.1 09-10 148.336.21.0 10-11 132.0 32.5 1.4

9. CPR Wise Use of N, P & K (kg/ha) during 2010-11 CPRNPK CPR-1161.538.60.93 CPR-2133.323.70.70 CPR-3148.027.11.28 CPR-442.210.10.19 CPR-552.36.20.01 Punjab132.032.51.42

10. District Wise Use of N, P & K (kg/ha) during 2010-11 District NPK Multan 280.465.71.4 M. Garh98.719.90.8 Gujranwala176.030.50.9 M. B. Din128.424.21.4 Okara195.930.02.2 Sargodha92.420.10.8 Layyah99.828.80.6 Bhakkar28.66.10.1 Jhelum91.818.30.03 Chakwal10.61.7-

11. Fertilizer Recommendations for Wheat over the Years Irrigated Rain-fed Soil TypepoorMediumFertile Progressive Farmers<350 mm350-500 mm>500 mm Year N: P: K 1973 114: 85: 0 1985-86136: 111: 57114: 67: 5784: 57: 57 57 :57: 5784: 57: 57114: 57: 57 1993-94136: 114: 62114: 84: 6284: 57: 62158: 114: 6257: 57: 6284: 57: 64114: 84: 62 2004130: 114: 62104: 84: 6279: 57: 62158: 114: 62 2006-07130: 114: 62104: 84: 6279: 57: 62158: 114: 6257: 57: 6284: 57: 62114: 57: 62 2007-08130: 114: 62104: 84: 6279: 57: 62158: 114: 62 2008-09130: 114: 62104: 84: 6279: 57: 62158: 114: 62 2009-10130: 114: 62104: 84: 6279: 57: 62158: 114: 62 2010-11130: 114: 62104: 84: 6279: 57: 62 57: 57: 30114: 114: 30 2011-12130: 114: 62104: 84: 6279: 57: 62 References: Agriculture department, Govt. of Punjab; Agricultural Research Council

12. Nutrient off take vs. yield of major crops in Punjab

13. Percent increase in Yield by Balanced Fertilizer

14. Projected Impact of Balanced Fertilization in Punjab, on 50 % area, 2009-10 Impact WheatRicesugarcaneMaizeCottonTotal Area (000 ha) 6914.71634.6574.0366.31975.0011464.6 % of cultivated area of Punjab 41.569.823.452.2011.8768.90 Additional Yield (000 tons) 5342.22615.511290.4626.61659.00 Financial Gain (Rs 000 million) 126.8869.9928.2310.6542.51278.26 Variation in Fert. Consumption (000 tons) :N 20.33-16.5523.4024.9168.65120.74 :P 268.8651.2025.9726.3357.02429.38 :K 109.8443.8135.5222.6797.26309.11 Additional Fertilizer cost (Rs 000 million) 33.938.546.395.2616.4670.59 Net Gain (Rs 000 million) 92.9461.4521.835.3926.38208.00 Note: Calculation covered 100% wheat area; 84% rice area; 95.5% sugarcane area; 68.5% maize and 81.1% cotton area of Punjab

15.  Soil Test Based Fertilizer Recommendations:  To improve the yield at the same level of inputs OR  To decrease the amount of inputs at the same level of yield WE MUST MOVE TO :

16. OBJECTIVES OF PROJECT  Collection and synthesis of available fertilizer trials data.  Software development for site-specific recommendations and dissemination through CDs and access to web.  Diagnostic survey for low adoption of fertilizer use technology and imbalance use of nitrogen and phosphorus.

17. COLLECTION AND PROCESSING OF DATA Collection of relevant reports, research papers, hand outs and personal communication for last 10 years. Extraction of fertilizer trials data (yield with soil analysis) separately for each district. Selection of treatments with balanced NP graded doses Processing of data for modeling and development of software Verification of predictions with original treatments Uploading of soft ware on the web.

18. Prediction Models on the Web  Prediction models for soil analysis based fertilizer recommendations(N&P) have been completed for all the districts of Punjab for wheat crop and relevant districts for rice(12 districts) and maize(7 districts) crops which are available on Web:  http://www.fertilizeruaf.pkhttp://www.fertilizeruaf.pk  Similar models for Sugarcane crop will be on the web up to mid September.  Models for cotton crop will be completed before the end of this year.

19. Involvement of stakeholders  August 2011: Internal review by Vice Chancellor and his team  September 2011: Meeting of stakeholders i.e. Agri. Research, Agri. Extension, Fertilizer Companies, UAF experts  October 2011: Review by Secretary Agriculture and his team  November 2011: Stakeholders workshop – Attended by Field staff of Agri. Extension, Research and Fertilizer companies working in Multan and their heads, Farmers from Multan, UAF experts.

20. Training of Field officers  Training of nominees of DOs Agri. Extension for use of Fertilizer Prediction models for imparting awareness to the farming community of their district.  Training of nominees of Soil Fertility Laboratories in Punjab for using the Fertilizer Prediction Models for giving recommendations on the basis of Soil analysis.

21. Validation Fertilizer Trials, Multan  Stakeholders Conference in Nov, 2011  Dr. Shahid Mahmood Dir. Soil Fertility- Focal Person  Plan of trials: 0-0, 50-25, 75-40, 100-50, 125-65, 150- 75, 175-85, 200-100  Allocation of trials: Soil Fertility-8, Agri. Extension- 9, Engro Fertilizer-3, FFC-2, Jaffer Brother-3, Fatima Fertilizer-6  Results of some trials discussed:

22. Munawwar Hussain, Moza Mansoor Pur, Jalalpur Pirwala Wheat Yield (Kg/ha) Applied N (Kg/ha) Applied P (Kg/ha) Predicted N (Kg/ha) Predicted P (Kg/ha) 1705 00 00 2894 5025 5227 3468 7540 8242 3939 10050 9647 4255 12565 10250 4552 15075 10954 4774 17585 11659 4674 200100 11454

23. Lal Muhammad, Haveli Lang, Moza Thelan, Jalalpur Pirwala Wheat Yield (Kg/ha) Applied N (Kg/ha) Applied P (Kg/ha) Predicted N (Kg/ha) Predicted P (Kg/ha) 1608 00 00 2632 5025 3717 3126 7540 6735 3458 10050 8435 3781 12565 10149 3929 15075 10654 4006 17585 10954 4046 200100 10954

24. Umar Farooq Chattha, Moza Baghdar Wala, Makhdoom Rasheed Wheat Yield (Kg/ha) Applied N (Kg/ha) Applied P (Kg/ha) Predicted N (Kg/ha) Predicted P (Kg/ha) 1871 00 00 2943 5025 4725 3480 7540 7740 3907 10050 9145 4257 12565 9749 4517 15075 10352 4761 17585 11157 4881 200100 11657

25. Muhammad Aleem, Shah Pur Ubha, Shujabad Wheat Yield (Kg/ha) Applied N (Kg/ha) Applied P (Kg/ha) Predicted N (Kg/ha) Predicted P (Kg/ha) 1932 00 00 2841 5025 4925 3285 7540 7737 3677 10050 9647 4063 12565 10251 4386 15075 10854 4689 17585 11657 4909 200100 12864

26. Muhammad Ishaque, Chak 86-M, Jalalpur Pirwala Wheat Yield (Kg/ha) Applied N (Kg/ha) Applied P (Kg/ha) Predicted N (Kg/ha) Predicted P (Kg/ha) 2956 00 4927 3129 5025 5730 3822 7540 9144 3953 10050 10152 3410 12565 6937 3446 15075 6937 3045 17585 4927 3650 200100 7940

27. Mohammad Nasir, Moza Jalalabad, Makhdoom Rasheed Wheat Yield (Kg/ha) Applied N (Kg/ha) Applied P (Kg/ha) Predicted N (Kg/ha) Predicted P (Kg/ha) 1882 00 00 2875 5025 5230 3146 7540 6935 3461 10050 8442 3825 12565 10149 4167 15075 12162 4479 17585 13467 4893 200100 14171

28. DEFICIENCIES IN THE DATA 1.Uneven distribution of trials leading to less no of observations in certain districts: i.Wheat: ii.Rice iii.Maize iv.Sugarcane

29. Number of trials for wheat DistrictNo of trials DistrictsNo of Trials DistrictsNo of Trials Faisalabad171Muzaffargarh44Layyah23 Bahawalnagar143Narowal42D.G.Khan23 Multan132T.T.Singh39kasur20 Bahawalpur117Hafizabad34Okara19 Sheikhupura115Khanewal32Lahore16 Rawalpindi94Chakwal26Pakpattan9 Gujrat90Jhelum25Rajanpur7

30. Number of trials for Rice DistrictNo of TrialsDistrictNo of Trials Sheikhupura95Sialkot33 Faisalabad91Sargodha28 Gujranwala64Hafizabad27 Kasur49Jhang26 Narowal47Lahore20 Gujrat45M.B.din10

31. Number of Trials for Maize DistrictNo of TrialsDistrictNo of Trials Faisalabad71Okara26 T.T.Singh63Pak Pattan8 Rawalpindi51Sargodha9 Sahiwal45Kasur6 Attock36Jhang2

32. Number of Trials for Sugarcane DistrictNo of TrialsDistrictNo of Trials Faisalabad23M.B.Din4 Sheikhupura12Jhang2 Sargodha11Pak Pattan2 T.T.Singh6R.Y.Khan2 Sahiwal4Kasur1

33. 2. Few points for the Prediction curve: WheatRice Basmati Coarse Maize Hybrid Non Hybrid SugarcaneCotton Non-BT BT 0: 0: 0 150: 120: 90 160: 57: 62 160: 114: 90 225: 120:60 240: 114:60 Arid Region 60: 40: 24 100: 0 : 60 100: 50: 60 100:100: 60 150:100: 60 0: 0: 0 90: 90: 60 120: 90: 80 135: 90: 60 160: 114: 90 180: 90: 60 0: 0: 0 150: 0: 75 150: 50: 75 150: 100: 0 150: 100: 75 150: 150: 75 225: 100: 75 0: 0: 0 120: 90: 62 150: 0: 75 150: 75: 75 150: 150: 75 175: 150: 100 180: 150: 120 270: 150: 120 0: 0: 0 150: 0: 75 150: 75: 75 150: 150: 75 175: 150:100 225: 150: 75 0: 0: 0 125: 125: 125 250: 0: 125 250: 125: 125 250: 150: 125 250: 250: 125 375: 125: 125 0: 0: 0 120: 0: 60 120: 40: 60 120: 80: 60 120:120:60 160: 40: 62 160: 80: 60 180: 80: 60 240: 80: 60 0: 0: 0 125:100:100 250: 0: 0 250: 50:100 250:100:100 250:150:100 375:100:100 400:100:125

34. What we have What we need ( Few points for Yield vs N/P) ( More points for Yield vs N/P)

35. 3. Fertilizer trials- Yield but no soil analysis 4. Salt affected soils- Area affected 2.68 mha in Punjab and within irrigated areas, the figure is 1.7 mha but no data available regarding salinity effect on fertilizer use efficiency 5. Rainfed Agriculture- 2.9 mha but no data available for quantifying the relation of moisture content in the soil with fertilizer use efficiency

36. These Deficiencies lead to:  Low precision of prediction models(Around 80%)  Low reliability for prediction in rainfed areas( 60 to 70 %)  No prediction for salt affected soils

37. Recommendations 1. Divert the resources to improve the fertilizer use efficiency: –Conduct soil analysis based demand oriented trials –Conduct soil moisture based fertilizer trials in rainfed areas –Conduct fertilizer trials in salt affected areas 2. Improve the efficiency of soil testing laboratories

38. FUTURE PLANS Fertilizer prediction models for Fruits plants, vegetables and minor crops Addition of K and micronutrients Establishment of Farmers Facilitation Centre at University of Agriculture, Faisalabad Site specific fertilizer recommendations to site specific crop production technology Commercialization