1. European Forward Looking Activities (FLA)
AUGUR stakeholder workshop
Brussels, November2011
Domenico ROSSETTI di VALDALBERO
European Commission, DG Research and Innovation

2. Modesty is a must Financial and economic crises
Technological developments
Social habits
Political movements … 2

3. EU Forward Looking Activities
Foresight, Forecast, Horizon scanning, Technology Assessment, Impact Assessment, Prospective
A long tradition in the EU
European Council: Gonzalez Report « Europe 2030 »
EP: Scientific Technology Options Assessment (STOA)
Council and Member States: Joint Programming (JPI)
European Commission 3

4. Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030”
Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an “increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent”
Source:

5. Largest countries by 2025 (100 million or over)
China (1453)
India (1431)
EU-27 (517)
USA (358)
Indonesia (263)
Pakistan (246)
Brazil (214)
Nigeria (210)
Bangladesh (195)
Russia (132)
Mexico (123)
Japan (120)
Ethiopia (119)
Philippines (117)
Egypt (105)
Not a single European country in this list
Il n’y a plus que des petits pays en Europe, mais certains ne le savent pas (Paul-Henri Spaak)
Source: UN

6. “Nobody cares” – Consumption share
Source: European Commission, DG RTD (Global Europe 2030/2050), MIRAGE model, L. Fontagné 6

7. EU energy imports
Source: European Commission, DG Energy (TREN) 7

8. Evolving regimes 1840-1914 Imperial liberalism
Mercantilism and war economy
State interventionism and socialism
Liberal capitalism
2008-… State capitalism?
Source: European Commission, DG RTD (POLINARES), R. Dannreuther 8

9. European Commission Forward Looking Activities
A long tradition:
FAST and Cellule de Prospective / BEPA
Multiannual Financial Perspectives
Long-term planning (SF, FP,…)
Europe 2020
Roadmap to a low carbon economy in 2050
Transports 2050, Energy Roadmap
JRC (cf.IPTS)
European Forum on Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA)
FP7 – Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities with both qualitative and quantitative exercises 9

10. Objectives of EU FLA To anticipate new societal challenges
To advise on the main changes that the World and Europe will have to face in the next decades
To inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts
To evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment)
To scan the weak signals and the wild cards including the potential technological and social breakthroughs
To shape a more sustainable future 10

11. Controversies on EU FLA
Baseline / Reference scenario?
Objectivity and bias among experts?
Clarity and opacity of models?
Conventional thinking and beyond it? … 11

12. SSH Expert Groups The World in 2025 – report published in 2009
Three Expert Groups led by DG Research and Innovation (Social Sciences and Humanities) in close cooperation with BEPA:
The World in 2025 – report published in 2009
EuroMed-2030 – report published 2010
Global Europe 2050 – report tbp in 2011 and final conference on 28 November 2011 12

13. 13

14. SSH research projects The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR)
European Foresight Platform (EFP)
The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER)
Science, Technology and Innovation (FARHORIZON, SESTI, CIVISTI, VERA)
Wild cards and weak signals, radical changes (IKNOW and INFU)
Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA, GLOBAL-IQ)
Security and defence (SANDERA)
The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO) 14

15. Evolution of world R&D expenditure
Note: (China excluding Hong-Kong)
Source: European Commission, DG RTD

16. EU population in 2060 (000 people)
The number of people over 65 will double in 50 years (from 85 million in 2008 to 151 million in 2060)
The "oldest old" (85 and over) will almost triple
The share of health expenditures in the EU is expected to increase from 8% of GDP today to 13% in 2060
Source: DG ECFIN, Ageing Report (H. Bogaert)

17. 2012 Calls for Proposals Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities (SSH)
New calls for proposals published on 20 July 2011:
FP7-SSH (small-medium project < 2.5 M€)
Forward looking tools and methods for answering major societal challenges (including emerging issues, weak signals and disruptive factors)
Deadline: 2 February 2012 at 17:00 (Brussels time)

19. More information on 19