1. Trends in Higher Education: Internationally, Nationally, State-wide, & Locally
Presentation by: Dr. Leah L. Bornstein and Dr. Kathleen A. Corak Coconino Community College Strategic Planning Retreat
September 26, 2007

2. Theories & Evidence of Global Change Effecting Higher Education
The World is Flat….T. Friedman
Three Billion New Capitalists….C. Prestowitz
The Flight of the Creative Class…R. Florida
The Experience Economy…..B. Pine & J. Gilmore
Etc….
Reference these texts
Pass them around

3. Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004 10 20 30 40 50 60
Canada
Japan
Korea
Sweden
Belgium
Ireland
Norway
United States
Spain
France
Finland
Australia
Denmark
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Iceland
Luxembourg
Switzerland
New Zealand
Greece
Poland
Germany
Austria
Mexico
Hungary
Portugal
Italy
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Turkey
25 to 34
45 to 54
US is being left behind in the global economy
We were once the envy of the world
Now we are 8th best in terms of ed attainment
We’ll continue to deteriorate if the status quo is acceptable

4. The Aging U.S. Workforce
Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population,
The college participation rate is high for students from high socio-economic status families, regardless of academic ability and preparation. The college participation rate is substantially lower for students from low socio-economic status families, even when they are high in academic ability and preparation. Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001
Baby Boomers are retiring.
In next 13 years employees 55 and over will drop by 100s of 1000s.
Jobs they filled will be open.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5. Growth in Demand -
At same time, AZ is projected to see record numbers of high school graduates through 2018.
There will be a particularly strong increase in the number of Hispanic student graduates.
Some of the projected HS graduation numbers are being fueled by AZ ‘s population growth which currently stands around 6.2 million.
It is expected to be 8.3 million in ten years.
While Coconino County is not expected to grow at the same rate, growth will be there from its current 135K residents to nearly 155K in next ten years.
Source; Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education

6. In Arizona, for every 100 ninth graders...
66 graduate from high school
31 enter college
20 are still enrolled by sophomore year
15 of the 100 complete degrees in six years
NCHEMS Information Center, 2002
While we expect to see significant increases in the number of high school attendees, there are serious challenges.
1/3 of 9th graders will not graduate from high school
2/3 s will not enter college
1/5 will continue only to the sophomore year of college.
Only 15% of current AZ 9th graders today will complete a Bachelor’s degree in 6 yrs.

7. Education Required
Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028
Labor projections indicate that between 1998 and 2028 there will be gap between the number of jobs requiring postsecondary experience, and the number of people with appropriate experience.
Therefore, without significant training by community colleges (and other providers) there will be an under-trained US workforce, reducing productivity.
With retirement of Baby Boomers and the economy trying to keep pace on a global scale, there is a demand far outstripping the projected supply of college educated workers.
In 1998 supply/demand was about the same but now the gap shows 10K more jobs available than can be filled.
Gap will grow to 30K jobs by 2028.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Alliance of Business

8. Training, tooling and directing the labor force—what community colleges do well—into
knowledge workers.
This is where community colleges step in because training, tooling and directing is what they do well.

9. What are knowledge workers?
… those states that improve opportunities for education and training beyond high school advance their residents' employment prospects and the competitiveness of their overall workforce.
Alan Wagner, Measuring Up Internationally: Developing Skills and Knowledge for the Global Knowledge Economy, National Center for Higher Education and Public Policy, September 2006
What are the knowledge workers?
People who can think on their feet.
People who look for solutions on their own.
People who have specialized knowledge they bring to their employers.

10. Educational Attainment – Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associates Degree or Higher, 2005
48.7%
46.0%
45.7%
44.6%
44.2%
44.0%
43.7%
43.3%
42.8%
42.4%
41.7%
41.3%
40.7%
40.4%
40.1%
38.9%
38.8%
38.6%
38.4%
37.4%
37.3%
37.2%
37.1%
37.0%
36.6%
36.4%
36.1%
36.0%
35.9%
35.8%
35.3%
33.9%
33.7%
33.6%
33.2%
33.0%
31.8%
31.2%
30.8%
29.8%
29.0%
28.6%
28.5%
26.8%
26.5%
25.0% 0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Colorado
New Jersey
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Vermont
Maryland
New York
Virginia
North Dakota
Washington
Rhode Island
Hawaii
Nebraska
Illinois
California
Utah
Kansas
South Dakota
Iowa
United States
Wisconsin
Oregon
Maine
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Florida
Montana
Alaska
North Carolina
Michigan
Georgia
Arizona
Wyoming
Idaho
Ohio
New Mexico
South Carolina
Missouri
Texas
Oklahoma
Indiana
Alabama
Tennessee
Mississippi
Nevada
Kentucky
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
Situation is particularly critical in AZ because it is 33rd out of 50 in terms of percent of adults with an Assoc. Degree.
Arizonans are less educated than most other states.
Source: 2005 American Community Survey

11. Coconino County has relatively high educational attainment -
Conversely, the reverse situation is true for Coconino County.
We have a higher percent of the population with a high school diploma and a bachelor’s degree than elsewhere in AZ or in the US.
While this may be true at present, a number of forecasters expect the next generation of Arizonans to be less well educated than their parents’ generation. .
U.S. Census, 2006

12. College in AZ has become less affordable
ARIZONA TRENDS:
College in AZ has become less affordable
Average Family Net College %
Income Cost Needed
$12,000 $ %
$26,912 $ %
$42,946 $ %
At the same time this situation is compounded by the fact that college is becoming less affordable, especially for lower income families.
For example, if a low income family averaging 12K/year was to send one child to college, the college cost alone would consume the majority of the family budget for the year.
Likewise a family struggling at 27K/year would invest more than a quarter of the family annual income.
Even for families making a comfortable living at an average of 43K/year, sending one child to college would require about 1/5 of the family budget.
If they had 4 children in college, there would be no family budget.

13. Coconino County has a relatively low income level -
Despite Coco Co. residents having a fairly high educational attainment, salaries county-wide remain relatively low.
Median income in Coco Co. is nearly 2K below median AZ family income and nearly 5K below the national median family income.
U.S. Census, 2006

14. State and Local Appropriations for Higher Education Per FTE Student ($), 2005
12,354
11,342
9,666
9,150
8,602
7,890
7,712
7,641
7,445
7,240
6,995
6,851
6,768
6,350
6,263
6,169
6,136
6,097
5,982
5,969
5,925
5,911
5,906
5,873
5,844
5,833
5,710
5,687
5,514
5,495
5,384
5,287
5,282
5,280
5,200
4,934
4,902
4,874
4,854
4,849
4,702
4,691
4,561
4,544
4,319
4,221
4,196
3,873
3,360
3,296
3,019
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Wyoming
Alaska
Hawaii
Connecticut
New Jersey
Nevada
Massachusetts
New Mexico
Georgia
New York
North Carolina
Illinois
Idaho
Delaware
Tennessee
Rhode Island
Kansas
Wisconsin
Maine
Kentucky
Arizona
Nebraska
Missouri
Washington
California
Nation
South Carolina
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Texas
Utah
Indiana
Iowa
Louisiana
Virginia
Alabama
Oklahoma
Florida
Mississippi
Ohio
Arkansas
South Dakota
Maryland
North Dakota
Oregon
West Virginia
Montana
Colorado
New Hampshire
Vermont
On this slide AZ legislature would appear to be generous in its support of public higher education with AZ faring better than many of the states and above the national average in HE appropriations/full time student.
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers

15. These demographics, combined with disproportionate growth of the (lightly taxed) service economy, have created structural deficits in virtually every state. Source: NCHEMS: Don Boyd, (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005.
However, the picture is a bit misleading when you look at appropriations on a per capita basis, the amount going to HE has decreased dramatically the last several years.
In other words, appropriations is not keeping pace with the growth in population.

16. STUDENTS ENROLLED IN TWO-YEAR COLLEGES IN ARIZONA IN 2004:
217,597 Students or 53% of all Higher
Education Enrollments.
Community Colleges are the “College of Choice” for the Majority of Arizonans.
The funding formula from the legislature has been dramatically different for universities than for community colleges.
The formula has been much more generous to universities.
And yet, more of the residents of AZ choose to attend cc’s.

17. CCC Operates With A Low Tax Rate -
CC’s are the colleges of choice.
We do know that AZ funds its CC’s less well than its 4-yr institutions.
However, this is particularly problematic for CCC which operates on a lower property tax rate than other CC Districts in AZ.

18. Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006
An October 2005 USA Today survey found two of Arizona's three public universities have led the nation in tuition increases since The University of Arizona (UA) ranked first with a 74.1 percent increase, and Arizona State University (ASU) ranked fourth with a percent increase.
If recent history is any indication, average in-state tuition could jump from $4,500 to nearly $10,000--roughly a quarter of a typical Arizona family's annual household income--in just a few years.
Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006
This being the situation—given that the appropriation rate and the tax structure may not significantly change in the next few years—our primary opportunity for growth in revenue still resides in the increase of enrollments.
One of the major factors coming into play on our ability to spur enrollment growths is the exponential growth of tuition at the universities.
The growth rate of tuition in AZ has been the 4th highest in the nation with a 70% increase.
Some expect that instate tuition could jump from $4500 to 10K / yr in just a few years.
If this happens, we won’t be able to build facilities fast enough to keep up with the demand.

19. Arizona & Affordability – Focus on Financial Aid
Through (last year for comparative data) --
Need-based aid:
$2.8 million (43rd nationally)
23% increase over ten years (43rd nationally)
$8.02 per Undergraduate FTE (49th nationally)
14th of 15 states in the WICHE Region
WICHE average: $170
National average: $415
Arizonans rely more heavily on loans:
Average loan amount in AZ – $3,762
Average loan amount in top states – $2,619
State investment in need-based financial aid as compared to the federal investment.
Arizona/Federal Investment: 0%
Top States/Federal Investment: 89%
This is a devastating condemnation of where we are in AZ.
State of AZ with more than 400K students in HE provides a paltry $2.8 million
This places AZ 43rd out of 50 states in the nation (the other states WY/VT/NH) don’t have the population base to raise the aid.
Consider over the last ten years how much the cost of housing/groceries/gas has gone up and consider that AZ has only increased need based aid by 23% during this time frame.
Commitment to provide aid to the neediest of students has declined compared to the cost of all else.
If you spread the 2.8 million over the undergraduate FTE, that amounts to only $8/student. Only WY does less.
National average is about $415/student.
AZ’s take out much more in loans as a consequence.
Nationally, most states chip in .89/federal $. In AZ, there is no such support.
Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, , National Association of StateGrant and Aid Program and Measuring Up, 2006, 2006, NCPPHE

20. To Summarize…..
Increased globalization of workforce
Decreased #s of 55+ generation in the workforce
Large AZ high school drop out problem coupled with high growth in Hispanic h. s. grad #s
Increased workforce need over next 40 yrs of folks w/ some post-2nd
Disparity in AZ educational attainment compared to County
CCC District is high attainment and lower-than-average income
AZ appropriations to HE in the upper middle with less support to community colleges
AZ citizens pay increasing % of their income for post-2nd & rely heavily on loans
In Addition…..
National Spellings report focuses on Access, Accountability & Affordability

21. So? How does CCC position itself to address these demographics and challenges?
How do the demographic shifts in learners effect how we program? competitively market? competitively recruit?
How do these demographics effect our hiring practices? How do we become more competitive?
W/ AZ low in ed attainment & Coconino County expecting a drop in attainment, how does CCC prepare/respond?
W/ 75% of new jobs requiring some post-2nd & only 35% of US ( yrs) have 2+ yrs of post-2nd, how does CCC respond?
W/ CCC District in low income & current high attainment, how does CCC respond?
How does CCC position itself so that our limited financial resources are maintained and strengthened?
Others?????