1. Economic Growth and Patterns of Democratisation in China and Russia Ian McAllister The Australian National University Stephen White University of Glasgow

2. Economic Development and Democracy Theories of modernization: more economically developed, greater likelihood of democratization First raised by Lipset (1959); economic development creates middle class More recent work by Huntington and Przeworski more equivocal Core problem is causality, which comes first? Examine the relationship in China and Russia using WVS data from 1990 to 2012.

3. Public Views of Governance

4. Views of Democratic Rule

5. Hypotheses: 1. Religion

6. 2. Education

7. 3. Occupation

8. 4. Economic Attitudes

9. 5. Personal Empowerment

10. 6. Political Outlooks

11. Predicting Support for Democracy (OLS Estimates)

12. Conclusions Most consistent predictor of democratization is elite education, followed by mass education Occupation also important, underpinning social mobility Subjective beliefs relatively unimportant Education therefore potentially key to democratization in China and Russia Especially important in China, where elite education tripled between 1990 and 2012