1. One Billion High Emitters: A New Approach for Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Shoibal Chakravarty (PEI), Ananth Chikkatur (Harvard), Heleen de Coninck (ECN), Steve Pacala (PEI), Robert Socolow (PEI), Massimo Tavoni (FEEM) Contact: shoibalc@princeton.edu

2. Background United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change –“Common but differentiated responsibilities” –Two-tier world: Annex I (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I (rest of the world)‏ –Kyoto Protocol builds on this Ignores emission inequality within nations Guiding principle: agreement between sovereign states

3. Based on a negotiated outcome? (Kyoto)‏ Based on cumulative historical contribution to climate change? Or perhaps on future contribution to the climate problem? Based on the reduction potentials (geography, climate)? Based on national per capita greenhouse gas emissions? (Contraction and convergence)‏ Based on the emissions of the individuals in a country? What is a fair distribution of emission allowances among countries?

4. It does: –Treat two individuals with the same emissions equally, regardless of their nationality –Provide a simple but flexible ordering principle on which to base emission allocation to countries: both developed and developing It does not: –Prescribe specific policy options –Does not include land use emissions and non-CO 2 gases What this paper does (and does not do)‏

5. Source: IEA WEO 2007 Per-capita energy related CO 2 emissions (2005)‏

6. Source: IEA WEO 2007 Per-capita energy related CO 2 emissions (2030)‏

7. Focus on the CO 2 emissions of individual Treat every individual the same, no matter in which country they live Calculate the individual emissions cap: an appropriate emission allowance of any individual in the world Find the nation’s cap: Add up the individual allowances for each citizen in a country National responsibilities based on individual emissions

8. 8 Individuals ranked by annual emissions

9. 9 Individual Emissions Cap Determine the globally applicable individual emissions cap

10. 10 Individual Emissions Cap Some people exceed the individual emissions cap

11. 11 National Emissions Target Required Reductions Individual Emissions Cap +++++ + = = Add the capped emissions of the citizens to determine the national target

12. Use income distribution data to arrive at individual carbon distributions Country CO 2 intensity

13. Use income distribution data to arrive at individual carbon distributions Apply Country CO 2 intensity

14. Rank all people in the world, highest to lowest emission-wise 50% 75%

15. Choose a global target: 30 GtCO 2 in 2030 Total emissions: 43 GtCO 2

16. Choose a global target: 30 GtCO 2 in 2030 Target 30 GtCO 2 Reduction: 13 GtCO 2 = 10.8 tCO 2 /person/yr

17. 2030 2003: 26 GtCO 2 2030: 43 GtCO 2 13 Gt 30 Gt Other global targets?

18. Regional emissions in 2030 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap For a 30 GtCO 2 global cap in 2030, similar population on which targets are based for four groupings 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap U.S. ChinaRest of OECDRest of world

19. Regional targets change with different global targets in 2030

20. Most allocation schemes introduce fairness through a per capita emission convergence component This allocation scheme introduces fairness through treating every individual the same However, is it fair if the very poor remain very poor? Allow the 2.7 billion people at < 1 tCO 2 /yr to grow What does 1 tCO 2 /person/yr mean –800 kWh coal-fired power; 65km of driving; 14 kg LPG/month –X 2 for indirect emissions Headroom for the poor?

21. What does 1 tCO 2 /yr get you? 160 40 0 120 Individual emissions (very poor) (kgCO 2 /yr)‏ Direct Energy Use Household rate of use (4.5 people)‏ Individual emissions (affluent poor) (kgCO 2 /yr)‏ Cooking14 kg LPG/ month 120 Transport0/65 km/day220 Electricity200/800 kWh/yr 160 Total500 1 tCO 2 /yr: Double the “direct” emissions to account for “indirect” emissions.

22. Combine global-emissions cap and individual-emissions floor “30P” in 2030: 30 GtCO 2 global emissions cap plus 1 tCO 2 floor on individual emissions Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO 2 with floor: 9.6 t CO 2 1

23. Regional targets, with the 1tCO 2 floor, for different global targets

24. It is possible to arrive at national caps based on income- based individual emissions Only an allocation mechanism: flexibility on policy instrument Global cap of 30 GtCO 2 in 2030 results in about 1 billion people having to reduce emissions The need of the poorest 2.7 billion people to emit more can be accommodated (but also uncertainty whether the poor will be spared)‏ Conclusion

25. What’s missing and how do we incorporate it ? CO 2 from land use and non-CO 2 gases Historical emissions: lifetime emissions, link to demographic statistics Strong levels of convergence Account for factors other than carbon intensity, e.g. geographical circumstances, climate, population density