1. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF

2. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 2 Contents of the Presentation In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics Greenhouse gases Aerosol Reactive gases Regional Air Quality Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 Successful recent initiatives AIRNow (USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

3. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 3 Satellite data assimilated operationally at ECMWF 3xAMSU-A (NOAA-15/16 + AQUA) 2xAMSU-B (NOAA-16/17) 3 SSMI (F-13/14/15) in clear and rainy conditions 1xHIRS (NOAA-17) AIRS (AQUA) Radiances from 5 GEOS (Met-5, Met-8, GOES-9/10/12) Winds from 4 GEOS (Met-5/8 GOES-10/12) and MODIS/TERRA+AQUA Scat winds from QuikSCAT and ERS-2 (Atlantic) Wave height from ENVISAT RA2 + ERS-2 SAR Ozone from SBUV (NOAA 16) and SCIAMACHY (ENVISAT) 27 different satellite sources! Coming soon: NOAA-18, SSMIS, radio occultation (GPS),…

4. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 4 Forecast skill from 1981-2005 for Northern & Southern hemispheres

5. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 5 A systematic approach to delivering socio-economic benefits from Earth observations, using Earth-system models and assimilations Global & Regional Observations Global Earth-system forecast systems for Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Chemistry, Biosphere -delivering deterministic and probabilistic forecasts Coupled end-user models, delivering deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for Air-qualityHealth Storm-surge Hydrology & river floods energy industryCrop-yields - - -

6. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 6 Contents of the Presentation In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics Greenhouse gases Aerosol Reactive gases Regional Air Quality Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 Successful recent initiatives AIRNow(USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

7. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 7 GEMS:Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data CoordinatorA.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) ProjectsLeadership Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) AerosolO.Boucher (UK) Regional Air QualityV-H.Peuch (F) ValidationH.Eskes (NL) Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF), GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

8. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 8 Motivations for GEMS BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES Excess deaths in summer 2003:- 18K in France, 35K in western Europe. Europe needs improved operational warnings for Meteorological / Air-quality natural disasters GEMS will provide such warnings SCIENCE GEMS will synthesise all available data into accurate ‘status assessments’. GEMS products will facilitate study of many science questions on the sources, sinks transport, and processing of atmospheric trace constituents, TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents. GEMS will meet the needs in a comprehensive manner, including the requirements of the GCOS Implementation Plan

9. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 9 Objectives of GEMS Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009 Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO 2, and progressively adding CH 4, N 2 O, plus SF 6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), REACTIVE GASES (initially including O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007 Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO 2 and other trace constituents

10. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 10 GEMS organisation GEMS is organised in 6 projects Validation Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality

11. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 11 GEMS: Greenhouse Gases - Global Deliverables Daily assimilation of all available satellite data (Advanced sounders, OCO, GOSAT) on CO 2, CO, CH 4, N 2 O Monthly / Seasonal variational inversions of both in- situ (e.g. flask) and satellite data to provide estimates of surface fluxes The same technology can be used to estimate surface fluxes of other atmospheric constituents

12. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 12 Motivations for the GEMS:Aerosol project Aerosols are:- An emerging issue for numerical weather prediction. Neglect of aerosol is the largest error in model clear sky radiation calculations (50W/m**2) Neglect of aerosol can lead to large errors (0.5K) in the forward calculations for advanced sounders. The aerosol element of GEMS is likely to be the first GEMS element included in the operational suite An important issue for public health and air quality (e.g. forthcoming EU directive on PM2.5) GEMS will provide global forecasts for mineral dust, marine aerosol, black carbon, sulphate aerosol.. GEMS variational estimates of aerosol sources may be of help for regulatory purposes An important issue for climate Aerosols may mitigate the impact of greenhouse gases through ‘global dimming’?

13. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 13 GEMS:AEROSOL - Global Deliverables Model and assimilate global aerosol information Instruments: MERIS, MODIS x 2, MISR, SEAWIFS, POLDER, then VIIRS on NPP, VIIRS & APM on NPOESS, Initially 15 parameters =>30 parameters Global Monitoring Global Forecasts Boundary info. for Regional models

14. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 14 GEMS: REACTIVE-GASES -Deliverables & Approach Global Deliverables Monitor the global 3D / temporal distributions, transports, sources/sinks of key species such as O 3, NO 2, SO 2, CH 2 O.. Forecast Global Chemical Weather, including UV-B Initial and boundary conditions for regional Chemical Weather and Air-Quality Forecasts. Modelling & Assimilation Approach Tight coupling of the assimilating weather model (IFS) and a Chemical Transport Model (CTM ) to maintain good advection, and good chemical profiles. Copy frequently (2-hours?) the chemical fields from the assimilating model IFS => CTM (Chemical Transport Model) Copy frequently (2-hours?) the Production and Loss rates from CTM => IFS

15. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 15 Data Flow and Responsibilities in GEMS Reactive Gas project Assimilation System CTMs Validation data User Services ECMWF Satellite data ESA EUMETSAT NASA DLR … KNMI ECMWF BIRA IUP-UB SA-UPMC NHRF METEO-FR MPI-M ECMWF KNMI METEO-FR BIRA SA-UPMC Initial Fields Production and Loss rates FMI DMI MPI-M METEO-FR KNMI CNRS-LA SA-UPMC DWD NHRF NUIG RAQ Models MPI-M METEO-FR KNMI METEO-FR ARPA SIM ISAC FRIUUK UPMC MPI-M … GAW NOAA NILU METEO-FR NASA … Courtesy: M.Schultz

16. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 16 GEMS: Regional Air Quality Objectives Evaluate the impact on Regional Air-Quality forecasts of global information on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollutants. Initiate routine production at, & cooperation between, national air quality forecast centres for data access, forecast comparisons & skill evaluation. Improve continental to regional scale air quality models, the statistical post- treatment of forecasts, & explore multi-model ensemble approaches. Improve our understanding of the health impacts of air quality and incorporate air quality forecast information into a health forecast. Assess the effects of global variability 1999-2008 on regional air quality and provide background for policy evaluation and evolution.

17. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 17 GEMS Regional Air Quality Partners 1.Czech Hydrometeorological InstituteCZ 2.Max-Planck Institut für MeteorologieD 3.Rheinisches Institut für Umweltf. Universität KölnD 4.Danmarks Meteorologiske InstitutDK 5.Finnish Meteorological InstituteFin 6.CNRS: LMD / LA / LISA F 7.Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Service d’AéronomieF 8.Météo-France, CNRMF 9.Inst. Nat. de l’Environnement Industriel et des RisquesF 10.LCAE, University of AthensH 11.ARPA Emilia Romagna, Servizio Idro-Meteorologico I 12.Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate/ CNRI 13.Irish Environmental Protection AgencyIrl 14.Meteorologisk Institutt OsloN 15.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutNL 16.Polish Institute of Environmental ProtectionP 17.The Met OfficeUK 18.Imperial College LondonUK

18. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 18 Schedule of GEMS work at ECMWF Year 1 May 2005+12mo Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. Acquire data; build web-site Year 2 May 2006+12mo Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners Provide feedback to data providers Year 2-2.5 May 2007 +6mo Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience Year 2.5-3.5 Nov 2007+12mo Build operational system, & interfaces to partners Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6mo Final pre-operational trials Documentation & Scientific papers

19. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 19 Contents of the Presentation In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics Greenhouse gases Aerosol Reactive gases Regional Air Quality Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 Successful recent initiatives AIRNow (USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

20. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 20 AIRNow AIRNow is a N.American collaboration for real-time sharing of air quality information, observations and forecasts. AIRNow involves 145 partners at City, State, National, International Level AIRNow’s protocols have been carefully designed to respect the mandates and intellectual property rights of all partners. Data may only be used for agreed purposes – unvalidated data my not be used for regulatory purposes Data QC algorithms are the responsibility of the data owner Data may only be displayed in a owner-agreed format (categorical or numerical) Responsibility for official forecasts lies with the mandated authority at city, state or national level….. AIRNow is perceived as a considerable step forward in real-time Air Quality service in both Canada and USA http://airnow.gov/ Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du Canada

21. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 21 AQ Data from S/L Agencies EPA Data Management Center Forecast Pollutant Concentration Fields O 3 Movies/ Forecasts Public NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction State/Local Air Agencies Commercial Weather Providers AIRNow Initial Operational Configuration State, Local, EPA & NOAA IT Links Media City-specific AQI forecasts EPA Emissions Inventory pull - - -> ____ > push ____ > Weather Obs Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA

22. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 22 1300 AIRNow Ozone sites, hourly in real-time Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA Richard Menard, M.S.Canada

23. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 23 AIRNow PM2.5 sites, hourly in real-time Courtesy: Chet Wayland, US EPA Richard Menard, M.S.Canada

24. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 24 Drafting a proposal for GMES Initial Atmospheric Service In 2005 GMES Advisory Council (GAC) approved creation of three initial services: Marine, Risks, Land Cover GAC recommended Atmosphere service to start in 2006 EEA workshop in April 2005 indicated substantial interest in collaboration of NEA’s and NMS’s in creating a real-time service PROMOTE (ESA –GMES Service Element) currently developing satellite-related services EUMETNET Council (Oct 2005) invited ECMWF to take lead for the Met Community in developing such a service. Identify a drafting team for a proposal on an operational real-time Air Quality forecast service ECMWF (GEMS) + EUMETSAT (GMES Programme Office) + EUM/WG-ENV ESA: PROMOTE Environment Agencies:-----? Workshop in Spring 2006 to finalise the proposal (Little new GMES money before funding of FP7 proposals.)

25. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 25 Summary of the Presentation In 2001-2007 Space Agencies will spend $25B on satellites for climate & environmental research as well as weather; there will be operational follow-ons for many research instruments In 2005-2009 the GEMS project will extend current operational global data-assimilation and forecast capabilities to atmospheric composition, as well as dynamics & thermodynamics Greenhouse gases Aerosol Reactive gases Regional Air Quality Preparation of an operational transition of GEMS in 2009 Successful recent initiatives AIRNow(USA & Canada), Prev’Air (F) Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service

26. END thank you for your attention! www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

27. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 27 BACK-UP SLIDES

28. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 28 GEMS Reactive Gas Partners 1.ECMWF 2.Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-PyrénéesF 3.Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, HamburgD 4.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutNL 5.Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aeronomie, BrusselsB 6.Finnish Meteorological InstituteF 7.Danmarks Meteorologiske InstitutDK 8.Deutscher Wetterdienst, HohenpeissenbergD 9.Institut für UmweltphysikUniversität BremenD 10.Service d’Aéronomie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, ParisF 11.LCAE, University of Athens, H 12.Météo-France, CNRM, ToulouseF

29. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 29 GEMS Greenhouse Gas Partners 1.ECMWF 2.The Met OfficeUK 3.Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/CNRSF 4.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement F 5.Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, JenaD 6.JRC, Institute for Environment and SustainabilityEU

30. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 30 GEMS Aerosol Partners 1.ECMWF 2.The Met OfficeUK 3.Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique, Unversité de Lille F 4.LSCE/ CEA, Orme des MerisiersF 5.Max-Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie, HamburgD 6.Finnish Meteorological Institute, HelsinkiFin 7.DWD Meteorological Observatory, HohenpeissenbergD 8.Service d’Aéronomie, UPMC/CNRS, Paris F 9.Dept. of Physics, National University of Ireland, GalwayIrl 10.Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, BrusselsB

31. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 31 GEMS Reactive Gas Partners 1.ECMWFEurope 2.Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire Midi-PyrénéesF 3.Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie, HamburgD-Coordinator - 4.Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch InstituutNL 5.Belgisch Instituut voor Ruimte-Aeronomie, BrusselsB 6.Finnish Meteorological InstituteF 7.Danmarks Meteorologiske InstitutDK 8.Deutscher Wetterdienst, HohenpeissenbergD 9.Institut für UmweltphysikUniversität BremenD 10.Service d’Aéronomie, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, ParisF 11.LCAE, University of Athens, H 12.Météo-France, CNRM, ToulouseF

32. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 32 Example OF CO2 Validation with Aircraft data Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA R.Engelen

33. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 33 Modelling of Tropospheric Chemistry needs a full chemistry package and good surface emissions! Initially we shall bootstrap by coupling GCM & CTM Simulation of Ozone mixing ratio (nmol/mol) at 850 hPa for August 3, 2003, 1500 UTC as simulated with MOZART-2 CTM. Courtesy: G.Brasseur

34. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 34 European heat-wave 4-13 August 2003 Week-1/2/3 ensemble forecasts for 4-10 Aug Verif, Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Vitart (2005)

35. EIONET Workshop, GEMS; www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS Vilnius October 2005 A.Hollingsworth Slide 35 Issues in Transitioning the GEMS project to Operational Status from 2009 onwards. The GEMS project intends to be scientifically ready and technically ready to transition the global and regional GEMS systems to operational status by May 2009. New institutional arrangements are needed to fund operations, incl. human resources, computing & telecomms. fund sustained research support make and share observations, both real-time and archival product dissemination, both real-time and archival Actors in creating such institutional arrangements include European Commission, EEA, ESA National Environment Agencies Nat.Met.Services, ECMWF, EUMETSAT & EUMETNET Scientific and technical partners in GEMS, PROMOTE, and related GMES activities. Possible next step: Joint proposal in 2006 for GMES Pilot Atmospheric service