1. Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Preliminary FY2014 Report September 8, 2014

2. FY 2014 - Cases Coded and Keyed* JAN 2,368 FEB 1,938 MAR 2,185 APR 2,042 MAY 1,468 JUN 1,084 JUL2,225 AUG2,120 SEP2,077 OCT2,293 NOV1,913 DEC1,786 TOTAL12,41411,08523,499 2 *Keyed as of August 14, 2014 (Includes all forms received)

3. Preliminary FY2014 Report: General Compliance 3

4. Preliminary FY2014 Report Judicial Agreement with Guideline Recommendations General Compliance: The degree to which judges agree with the overall guidelines recommendation. 4 N=22,829

5. Preliminary FY2014 Report Judicial Agreement with Type of Recommended Disposition ACTUAL DISPOSITION Dispositional Compliance: The degree to which judges agree with the type of sanction recommended. 5 N=22,827 – Disposition missing in 2 cases

6. Preliminary FY2014 Report Judicial Agreement with Sentence Length Durational Compliance: The degree to which judges agree with the sentence length in cases in which defendants are recommended for jail/prison and receive at least one day incarceration. Median 9 months below midpoint 6 N=16,117 (Incarceration recommended with a disposition of incarceration (missing 186)

7. Preliminary FY2014 Report: Departure Reasons 7

8. Aggravation (n=2,342) Plea agreement 601 (26%**) Flagrancy of offense/facts of case412 (18%**) Severity/type of prior record346 (15%**) Poor rehabilitation potential 124 (5%**) Multiple counts involved in event 152 (7%**) Recommendation of jury 119 (5%**) SG Recommendation too low 92 (4%**) Offense involves drugs 86 (4%**) n=361 (15%) missing a departure reason Mitigation (n=2,487) Plea agreement903 (36%*) Judicial discretion 242 (10%*) Cooperated with Authorities210 (8%*) Sentenced to alternative 199 (8%*) Facts of the case188 (8%*) Will serve sentence in other case 173 (7%*) Recommendation of CA 162 (7%*) n=391 (16%) missing a departure reason Preliminary FY2014 Report Most Frequently Cited Departure Reasons * Of mitigating cases requiring departure reason** Of aggravating cases requiring departure reasons 8

9. Preliminary FY2014 Report: Compliance by Circuit 9

10. FY 2013: 76% 11% 13% Preliminary FY2014 Sorted By Circuit Most cases received: -Circuit 15 (Fredericksburg Area) -Circuit 26 (Harrisonburg Area) -Circuit 2 (Virginia Beach) -Circuit 13 (Richmond) -Circuit 27 (Radford) 10 FY 2013: 76% 17% 7% FY 2013: 74% 19% 8% Compared to FY2013 Annual Report Compliance Changes of 4% or More

11. Preliminary FY2014 Sorted By Compliance Highest aggravation: -Circuit 30 (Lee Area) 17.7% Highest mitigation: -Circuit 13 (Richmond City) 22.6% 11

12. Preliminary FY2014 Report: Compliance by Offense Type 12

13. Preliminary FY2014 Report Compliance by Type of Offense 5,708 1,895 1,584 1,331 6,352 417 1,297 656 424 439 175 99 557 998 708 189 Larceny Fraud Traffic Drug-Oth Drug-I/II Misc-Oth Assault Weapon Burg-Oth Misc-PP Rape Kidnap Sex-Asl Burg-Dwel Robbery Murder 13 FY2013 82.7% 84.4% 79.1% 83.2% 80.8% 77.4% 73.8% 74.5% 75.8% 74.8% 61.9% 69.1% 68.0% 65.0% 65.6% 66.4%

14. Preliminary FY2014 Report: Additions/Changes Effective July 1, 2013 14

15. Nonviolent Risk Assessment Effective July 1, 2013 Replace the nonviolent offender risk assessment instrument, used in conjunction with the guidelines for fraud, larceny and drug offenses, with risk assessment instruments developed based on the results of the Commission’s recent study of felony recidivism. 15

16. Preliminary FY2014 Report Nonviolent Risk Assessment 16 Virginia Code § 17.1-803 5. Develop an offender risk assessment instrument for use in all felony cases, based on a study of Virginia felons, that will be predictive of the relative risk that a felon will become a threat to public safety. 6. Apply the risk assessment instrument to offenders convicted of any felony that is not specified in (i) subdivision 1, 2 or 3 of subsection A of § 17.1-805 or (ii) subsection C of § 17.1-805 under the discretionary sentencing guidelines, and shall determine, on the basis of such assessment and with due regard for public safety needs, the feasibility of achieving the goal of placing 25 percent of such offenders in one of the alternative sanctions listed in subdivision 4. If the Commission so determines that achieving the 25 percent or a higher percentage goal is feasible, it shall incorporate such goal into the discretionary sentencing guidelines, to become effective on January 1, 1996. If the Commission so determines that achieving the goal is not feasible, the Commission shall report that determination to the General Assembly, the Governor and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Virginia on or before December 1, 1995, and shall make such recommendations as it deems appropriate. Effective July 1, 2004 Score 35  38

17. Preliminary FY2014 Report Nonviolent Risk Assessment Risk assessment applies in drug, fraud, & larceny cases Offender must meet eligibility criteria −Recommended for incarceration −No current or violent felony conviction −Did not distribute an ounce or more of cocaine −Not convicted of crime requiring mandatory minimum term of incarceration Purpose: To recommend alternative sanctions for offenders who are statistically less likely to recidivate Type of alternative at discretion of judge 17

18. Drug/Schedule I/II or Drug Other Fraud and Larceny 18

19. Preliminary FY2014 Report Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment by Type of Offense 15,286 Drug, Fraud & Larceny Cases - 9,637 Excluded: Ineligible, Errors, 1994 Missing 5,649 Analyzed Larceny 39.6% Fraud 13.0% DrugOther 8.8% 19

20. Preliminary FY2014 Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment Fraud Larceny All Risk Cases8% 11% Drug7% 18% 8% 22% 26% 67% 78% 62% 58% 7% 6% 5% 9% 5,649 2,237 733 2,679 OffenseMitigation Compliance Aggravation Number of Cases AlternativeTraditional 85% 86% 84% 20 N=5,647, 2 Missing Alternative Info Previous Version 28% 37% 10% 22% Previous Version 28% 37% 10% 22%

21. Recommended and Received an Alternative18.1%n= 1,025 Recommended and Incarcerated29.5%n= 1,664 Not Recommended and Received Alternative14.0%n= 791 Not Recommended and Incarcerated38.4%n= 2,167 Preliminary FY2014 Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment 21 N=5,647, 2 Missing Alternative Info Of offenders recommended for alternative sanctions, the proportion who received an alternative Previous VersionCurrent Version 42% 38% 42% 38% Of offenders recommended for alternative sanctions, the proportion who received an alternative Previous VersionCurrent Version 42% 38% 42% 38%

22. Mandatory Minimum Factor Effective July 1, 2013 Revise several guidelines worksheets to ensure that the recommended sentence exceeds six months of incarceration when the primary offense is accompanied by an offense that requires a mandatory minimum sentence of at least six months. 22

23. Burglary Dwelling Burglary Other Structure Drug Other Miscellaneous - Other Miscellaneous – Person/Property Murder Weapon/Firearm 23 Worksheets Modified:

24. Offense Worksheet ComplianceMitigationAggravation Burglary Dwelling (n=57)71.9%10.5%17.5% Burglary Other Structure (n=8)100%0% Drug Other (n=22)77.3%4.5%18.2% Miscellaneous - Other (n=2)50%0%50% Miscellaneous – Person/Property (n=5)60%40%0% Murder (n=48)70.8%6.3%22.9% Weapon/Firearm (n=190)81.1%4.2%14.7% Preliminary FY2014 Report New Mandatory Minimum Factor Added Effective July 1, 2013 332 cases: Points on section A added for the new mandatory minimum factor 24

25. Burglary With Murder or Malicious Wounding Effective July 1, 2013 Revise the sentencing guidelines for a completed act of burglary with a deadly weapon to increase the prison sentence recommendation for offenders who have an accompanying offense of murder or malicious wounding. 25

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27. Offense Worksheet ComplianceMitigationAggravation Burglary of a Dwelling (n=4)75.0%0.0%25.0% Preliminary FY2014 Report New Factor for Additional Offense of Murder or Malicious Wounding Effective July 1, 2013 27

28. Vehicular Involuntary Manslaughter Effective July 1, 2013 Amend the Murder/Homicide sentencing guidelines for vehicular involuntary manslaughter associated with driving under the influence (§ 18.2-36.1(A)) to more closely reflect judicial sentencing practices for this offense. 28

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30. Offense Worksheet ComplianceMitigationAggravation Vehicular Involuntary Manslaughter (n=16)31.3%12.5%56.3% Preliminary FY2014 Report Vehicular Involuntary Manslaughter Modified Effective July 1, 2013 Probation n=212.5%* Jail n=212.5% Median Sentence 12 months Prisonn=1275.0% Median Sentence 7 years * May include offenders sentenced to time served 30

31. Larceny With Intent to Sell Effective July 1, 2013 Amend the Larceny sentencing guidelines to add larceny of property with a value of $200 or more or an aggregate value of $200 or more with the intent to sell or distribute as defined by § 18.2-108.01. 31

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33. OffenseComplianceMitigationAggravation Larceny with intent to sell, $200 or more (n=100)76.0%4.0%20.0% Larceny with intent to sell, Aggregate value $200 or more(n=29)82.8%6.9%10.3% Preliminary FY2014 Report New Larceny Offenses Added Effective July 1, 2013 33

34. Sentencing Revocation Reports & Probation Violation Guidelines (FY2014) 34

35. Sentencing Revocation Report is completed for all cases involving felony violations of: Probation Post-release terms administered by the court Good behavior Suspended sentence Community-based programs 35

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37. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received by Judicial Circuit FY2014 (Preliminary) Highest Number Received Circuit 4 - Norfolk (n=770) Circuit 29 - Buchanan Area (n=699) Circuit 1 - Chesapeake (n=640) Circuit 15 - Fredericksburg Area (n=606) Circuit 22 - Danville (N=604) CircuitAreaNumber 1Chesapeake640 2Virginia Beach229 3Portsmouth351 4Norfolk770 5Suffolk Area363 6Sussex Area60 7Newport News207 8Hampton320 9Williamsburg Area274 10South Boston Area233 11Petersburg Area69 12Chesterfield Area218 13Richmond City289 14Henrico397 15Fredericksburg Area606 16Charlottesville Area230 17Arlington82 18Alexandria137 19Fairfax462 20Loudoun Area213 21Martinsville Area188 22Danville Area604 23Roanoke Area325 24Lynchburg Area428 25Staunton Area403 26Harrisonburg Area684 27Radford Area575 28Bristol Area285 29Buchanan Area699 30Lee Area170 31Prince William Area260 Total 10,771* * Includes all forms received, including those found not in violation or missing information, 1 missing circuit 37

38. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received for Technical and New Law Violations* FY1998 - FY2014 (Preliminary) *Note: FY14 includes cases received by July 1, 2014 for cases found in violation with no missing conditions (Data from May and June 2014 are incomplete) 51.44% 49.56% 38

39. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received for Technical and New Law Violations* Calendar Year 2008 - 2013 *Note: FY14 includes cases received by July 1, 2014 for cases found in violation with no missing conditions (May Sentencing Events) 52.2% 47.8% 39

40. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received Dispositions for Technical and New Law Violations FY2014 (Preliminary) Actual Disposition Received ProbationJail = 1yr. TECHNICAL VIOLATOR 1,150 (23%)2,508 (49%)1,413 (28%) NEW LAW VIOLATOR 996 (19%)2,237 (43%) 1,936 (38%) TOTAL * 2,146 (21%)4,745 (46%)3,349 (33%) * n=10,240 Sentencing information was missing for 250 cases 40

41. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received New Law Violations by Type of New Crime FY2014 (Preliminary) Cases = 5,291 41

42. Missing54210.2 A120 A220 A340.1 A510 A680.2 A9250.5 C310 C550.1 C630.1 C9120.2 F2200.4 F3260.5 F4280.5 F54488.5 F672913.8 F999218.7 I911.2 M11,90235.9 M2500.9 M360.1 M41943.7 M91552.9 S91252.4 Total5,291100 Seriousness Index NumberPercent Sentencing Revocation Reports Received New Law Violations by Type of New Crime FY2014 (Preliminary) Felonies Misdemeanors Traffic Infractions Type Not Clear 42

43. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received by Type of Violation and Sanction Received FY2014 (Preliminary) Probation Jail Prison Median 6 mos. Median 5 mos. Median 1.5 yrs. Median 1.8 yrs. Median 2.0 yrs. n=5,071 Technical, n=2,330 New Misdemeanor, 2,255 New Felony, 584 Missing 43

44. Sentencing Revocation Reports 10,772 Technical Violations 5,199 Included in Probation Violation Guidelines Compliance Analysis 4,474 Not Included in Probation Violation Guidelines Compliance Analysis * 725 New Crime Violations 5,291 * Cases are not included in compliance analysis if the guidelines do not apply (the case involves a parole-eligible offense, first offender violation, misdemeanor original offense, or the offender was not on supervised probation), if the guidelines forms were incomplete, or if outdated forms were prepared. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received FY2014 (Preliminary) Violator Type Unknown 113 Found Not in Violation 169 44

45. Probation Violation Guidelines Cases – “Technicals” by Type of Original Offense FY2014 (Preliminary) N = 4,474 45

46. Types of Violations Cited in Probation Violation Guidelines Cases – “Technicals” FY2014 (Preliminary) Percentages do not total 100% because there may be multiple violations cited for each defendant Financial 45% Substance abuse treatment 28% Alternative programs 8% Sex offender restrictions 7% N = 4,474 46

47. FY2008-2014 WorksheetFY2006-FY2007 Worksheet New factors were added Existing factors were adjusted Point values were increased 47

48. N = 3,140 Probation Violation Guidelines – “Technicals” Compliance by Fiscal Year FY2005 – FY2014 (Preliminary) N = 4,905N = 4,474*N = 4,659N = 4,763N = 4,223N = 5,024N = 5,920N = 4,486N = 4,482 48 *Note: FY14 includes cases received by July 1, 2014 for cases found in violation with no missing conditions (May Sentencing Events)

49. RECOMMENDED DISPOSITION ACTUAL DISPOSITION Probation Jail up to 12 Months Prison 1 Year or More Probation 45.6%44.1%10.4% Jail up to 12 Months 17.2%66.9%15.4% Prison 1 Year or More 13.9%31.1%55.0% Probation Violation Guidelines Dispositional Compliance : Recommended Disposition by Actual Disposition FY2014 (Preliminary) Median Jail Sentence 6 months Median Prison Sentence 1 yr. 10 mo. N = 4,474 49

50. Preliminary FY2014 Sorted By Circuit Most cases received: -Circuit 22 (Danville Area) -Circuit 15 (Fredericksburg Area) -Circuit 29 (Buchanan Area) -Circuit 26 (Harrisonburg Area) -Circuit 4 (Norfolk) 50 n=4,474

51. Preliminary FY2014 Sorted By Circuit 51 n=4,474 Highest aggravation: -Circuit 29 (Buchanan Area) 44.4% Highest mitigation: -Circuit 18 (Alexandria City) 41.7%

52. Probation Violation Guidelines Most Frequently Cited Departure Reasons - (Percent of Cases) FY2014 (Preliminary) Mitigation (22.5%) Most frequently cited: No Reason (52.9%) Judicial Discretion (6.3%) Plea Agreement (5.6%) Offender’s Health (5.4%) Commonwealth’s Attorney Recommendation (4.6%) Aggravation (24.2%) Most frequently cited: No Reason (48.7%) Subsequent Violation (11.8%) Failed to Follow Instructions (7.1%) Absconded (6.4%) Substance Abuse Issues (4.5%) 52

53. Sentencing Revocation Reports & Probation Violation Guidelines (FY2014) 53