1. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/eOlivier Blanchard Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano 20 C H A P T E R Output, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate

2. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Output, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate  The model developed in this chapter is an extension of the open economy IS-LM model, known as the Mundell-Fleming model.  The main questions we try to solve are:  What determines the exchange rate?  How can policy makers affect exchange rates?

3. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium in the Goods Market  Equilibrium in the goods market can be described by the following equations: 20-1

4. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium in the Goods Market  In this chapter we make two simplifications: 1. Both the domestic and the foreign price levels are given; thus, the nominal and the real exchange rate move together: 2. There is no inflation, neither actual nor expected.  Then, the equilibrium condition becomes:

5. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium in Financial markets Domestic Bonds Versus Foreign Bonds  What combination of domestic and foreign bonds should financial investors choose in order to maximize expected returns? 20-2  The domestic interest rate must be equal to the foreign interest rate plus the expected rate of depreciation of the domestic currency.

6. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium in Financial Markets  If the expected future exchange rate is given, then:  The current exchange rate is:

7. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium in Financial Markets  An increase in the U.S. interest rate, say, after a monetary contraction, will cause the U.S. interest rate to increase, and the demand for U.S. bonds to rise. As investors switch from foreign currency to dollars, the dollar appreciates.

8. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium in Financial Markets  The more the dollar appreciates, the more investors expect it to depreciate in the future.  The initial dollar appreciation must be such that the expected future depreciation compensates for the increase in the U.S. interest rate. When this is the case, investors are again indifferent and equilibrium prevails.

9. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Equilibrium in Financial Markets The Relation Between the Interest Rate and the Exchange Rate Implied by Interest Parity A lower domestic interest rate leads to a higher exchange rate—to a depreciation of the domestic currency. A higher domestic interest rate leads to a lower exchange rate—to an appreciation of the domestic currency.

10. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Putting Goods and Financial Markets Together  Goods-market equilibrium implies that output depends, among other factors, on the interest rate and the exchange rate. 20-3

11. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Putting Goods and Financial Markets Together  The interest rate is determined in the money market:  The interest-parity condition implies a negative relation between the domestic interest rate and the exchange rate:

12. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Putting Goods and Financial Markets Together  The open-economy versions of the IS and LM relations are:  Changes in the interest rate affect the economy directly through investment, and indirectly through the exchange rate.

13. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Putting Goods and Financial Markets Together The IS-LM Model in the Open Economy An increase in the interest rate reduces output both directly and indirectly (through the exchange rate). The IS curve is downward sloping. Given the real money stock, an increase in income increases the interest rate: The LM curve is upward sloping.

14. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Effects of Policy in an Open Economy The Effects of an Increase in Government Spending An increase in government spending leads to an increase in output, an increase in the interest rate, and an appreciation. 20-4 The increase in government spending affects neither the LM curve nor the interest- parity curve.

15. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard The Effects of Monetary Policy in an Open Economy The Effects of a Monetary Contraction A monetary contraction leads to a decrease in output, an increase in the interest rate, and an appreciation. The decrease in the money supply affects neither the IS curve nor the interest-parity curve.

16. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Contraction and Fiscal Policy Expansions Table 20-1 The Emergence of Large U.S. Budget Deficits, 1980-1984 19801981198219831984 Spending22.022.824.025.023.7 Revenues20.220.820.519.419.2 Personal taxes 9.49.69.98.88.2 Corporate taxes 2.62.31.61.62.0 Budget surplus  1.8  2.0  3.5  5.6  4.5 Numbers are for fiscal years, which start in October of the previous calendar year. All numbers are expressed as a percentage of GDP.

17. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Contraction and Fiscal Policy Expansions  Supply siders—a group of economists who argued that a cut in tax rates would boost economic activity.  High output growth and dollar appreciation during the early 1980s resulted in an increase in the trade deficit. A higher trade deficit, combined with a large budget deficit, became know as the twin deficits of the 1980s.

18. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Monetary Contraction and Fiscal Policy Expansions Table 20-2 Major U.S. Macroeconomic Variables, 1980-1984 19801981198219831984 GDP Growth (%)  0.5 1.8  2.2 3.96.2 Unemployment rate (%) 7.17.69.79.67.5 Inflation (CPI) (%) 12.58.93.83.83.9 Interest rate (nominal) (%) 11.514.010.68.69.6 (real) (%) 2.54.96.05.15.9 Real exchange rate 11799898577 Trade surplus (  : deficit) (% of GDP)  0.5  0.4  0.6  1.5  2.7 Inflation: Rate of change of the CPI. The nominal interest rate is the three-month T-bill rate. The real interest rate is equal to the nominal rate minus the forecast of inflation by DRI, a private forecasting firm. The real exchange rate is the trade-weighted real exchange rate, normalized so that 1973 = 100

19. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fixed Exchange Rates 20-5  Central banks act under implicit and explicit exchange-rate targets and use monetary policy to achieve those targets.  Some peg their currency to the dollar, to other currencies, or to a basket of currencies, with weights reflecting the composition of their trade.

20. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fixed Exchange Rates  Some countries operate under a crawling peg. If the domestic price level rises faster than the U.S. price level, the country faces a real appreciation that can rapidly make domestic goods noncompetitive. To avoid this effect, countries choose a predetermined depreciation rate against the dollar.

21. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fixed Exchange Rates  The European Monetary System (EMS), determined the movements of exchange rates within the European Union from 1978 to 1998.  Countries agreed to maintain their currencies within bands around a central parity.  Some countries moved further, agreeing to adopt a common currency, the Euro, in effect, adopting a “fixed exchange rate.”

22. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Pegging the Exchange Rate, and Monetary Control  The interest parity condition is:  Pegging the exchange rate turns the interest parity relation into:

23. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Pegging the Exchange Rate, and Monetary Control  Increases in the domestic demand for money must be matched by increases in the supply of money in order to maintain the interest rate constant, so that the following condition holds:  If the exchange rate is expected to remain unchanged, the domestic interest rate must be equal to the foreign interest rate.

24. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Fiscal Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates The Effects of a Fiscal Expansion Under Fixed Exchange Rates Under flexible exchange rates, a fiscal expansion increases output, from Y A to Y B. Under fixed exchange rates, output increases from Y A to Y C. The central bank must accommodate the resulting increase in the demand for money.

25. © 2003 Prentice Hall Business PublishingMacroeconomics, 3/e Olivier Blanchard Key Terms  Mundell-Fleming model, Mundell-Fleming model, Mundell-Fleming model,  supply siders, supply siders, supply siders,  twin deficits, twin deficits, twin deficits,  peg, peg,  crawling peg, crawling peg, crawling peg,  European Monetary System (EMS), European Monetary System (EMS), European Monetary System (EMS),  bands, bands,  central parity, central parity, central parity,  Euro, Euro,