1. Dr. Ion Comendant, Institute of Power Engineering ASM
6th International Scientific Conference
Policy portfolios for emerging economies
EU FP-7 ROMITHEAS -4 Project
“Knowledge transfer and research needs for
preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”
Development and Assessment of M/A Climate Change policy portfolios for R. of Moldova
Dr. Ion Comendant,
Institute of Power Engineering ASM
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

2. Content Introduction Climate Change policy mixtures Further actions
IPE Profile
Moldova National Workshop
Project Team Members
Moldova Climate Change policies applied
Climate Change policy mixtures
Data collection
Characteristics of Scenarios
Results of three scenarios
Assessment of the policy mixtures
Best policy mixture
Needs and gaps observed
Further actions
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

3. Institute of Power Engineering
IPE ASM was founded in 1991, public institution:
- 28 scientific researchers: including 2 Full Member
of the Academy of Sciences, 8 Doctors of sciences and 9 PhDs.
- Laboratories&Departments: controlled power transmission
lines; simulation and diagnostics of power equipment; Electric-
power equipment and power electronics; Energy efficiency and RES
Research Domain:
- Energy system development planning and optimal operation
- Elaboration of new methods, devices, tools and equipment for
increasing energy efficiency and RES promotion
IPE Scientific Journal: Regional Energy Problems -
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

4. Moldova National Workshop
On May 14, 2013 in the framework of PROMITHEAS-4 Project the National Workshop „Development and evaluation of the M/A policy portfolios for the R. of Moldova” was organized by IPE in Chisinau, Hotel “Codru”
- 48 participants, including: Gheorghe Salaru, Ministry of Environment; Victor
TVIRCUN, Ambassador, BSEC-PERMIS General Secretary; Vladimir Berzan, IPE
Director; Prof. Dimitris Mavrakis, Project Coordinator; Dr. Popi Konidari
The Workshop agreed on the following conclusions:
1. The Workshop was very helpful for audience by new results obtained
in the domain the project PROMITHEAS-4 was devoted.
2. As a result of trainings devoted to scenarios calculation using LEAP
model, the last was tailored to correspond Moldova specific
conditions, where 96% of energy sources are from import.
The list of research needs and gaps identified would help to ensure
pragmatic platform for more accurate outcomes on GHG emissions
calculation in the future.
The Workshop recognize that for the purpose of renewable electricity
involvement into the climate change scenarios calculation the lack of
effective balancing power on country territory should be taken into
consideration, their share being put in compliance with this
shortage.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

5. PROMITHEAS-4 Moldova Team
■ Total number of Moldova team in the PROMITHEAS-4 project – 6:
● Prof. Mihai Chiorsac, Moldova team general coordinator, tel. 373 ,
● Dr. Ion Comendant, Scientific coordinator, management,
Evaluation of policy portfolios, tel ,
● Dr. Vasile Scorpan, Scenarios and policy portfolios, tel. 373 ,
● Marius Taranu, Evaluation of available data and information, tel. ,
● Sergiu Robu, Choice and implementation of models, tel. 373 ,
● Iulia Panfilchina, Choice and implementation of models, tel. 373 ,
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6. Data collection
National Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Yearbooks of the R. Moldova and Energy Balance for 1990 – 2011;
National Bank of Moldova;
State Hydrometeorological Service of Moldova;
Government Decisions;
Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources;
National Agency for Energy Regulation;
Climate Change Office;
World Energy Outlook 2010, IEA;
World Bank;
UNDP;
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe;
UNEP/Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources;
IPCC, Climate Change.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

7. Moldova climate change policies applied
■ No specific climate change policies documents are approved up to now.
The existing normative acts are oriented to resolve country priorities,
M/A impact is considered as tangible result.
■ In 2013 both the Low Emission Development Strategy and Climate
Change Adaptation Strategy are planned to be approved. They gather
the actions from all existing first level legal documents that have M/A
impact as well.
■ The main climate mitigation impact is expected to have from the
realization of Energy Strategy up to 2030 approved in 2012, that
promote energy efficiency and RES, including to reach by 2020:
- energy intensity reduction by 10%;
- grid electricity losses reduction up to 11%, grid gas losses by 39%, grid heat losses by 5%;
- energy consumption reduction in buildings by 20%;
- 10% of public buildings renovated;
- the share of annual electricity from renewable energy sources up to 10%.
- the use of energy from renewable sources relative to total gross domestic consumption: 20% ;
- the share of biofuels in total transport fuel consumption: 10%.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

8. Model is applied for calculation
Scenarios developed
Three Scenarios
● Business as Usual (BAU);
● Optimistic (OPT);
● Pessimistic (PES).
Time horizon:
OPT and PES scenarios are oriented to the following national objectives:
- 20% share of RES in the total energy mix by 2020
- 20% reduction of the total primary energy consumption by 2020, compared to
that of year 2009.
Only the territory of right bank of river Nistru is considered in calculation
Model is applied for calculation
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

9. Sectors Review Key Assumptions Resource Transformation Demand
- Population
- GDP
GDP per capita
GDP real growth
GDP per Sector
Annual
Household
Income
Climate Statistic
World Prices for
Resources
PRIMARY:
Coal
Gasoline, Dieel
Fuel Oil, LPG
Hydro
SECONDARY:
Electricity
Heat
Natural Gas
Agriculture
Household
Industry
Transport
- Non Specified
- Electricity
Generation
District Heating
Losses
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

10. Key Assumptions for the BAU Scenario
Population: -0.69% by 2050;
GDP: +5.0% by 2030;
GDP distribution for Industry Sector: 2.5% by 2050;
GDP distribution for Agriculture Sector: 1.5% by 2050;
Import electricity from Ukraine and Transnistria (76%);
No intensification of renewable energy resources usage;
No energy efficiency policy;
Excessive dependence (100%) on natural gas imported from a single supplier. Natural gas is widely used for electricity generation;
Energy dependence will grow;
Emissions of greenhouse gases and oxides will increase;
The BAU scenario is only a mitigation policy portfolio.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

11. Key Assumptions for the OPT Scenario
Population and GDP as in BAU Scenario;
GDP distribution for Industry Sector: 3.5% by 2050;
GDP distribution for Agriculture Sector: 2.0% by 2050;
Energy reduction in buildings up to 10% until 2020;
The share of biofuel consumption is expected to reach the level of 4% in the transport sector by 2015 and by 10% in 2020;
Rehabilitation of existing CHPs with electricity generation growth;
Electricity imported from Ukraine and Transnistria will decrease
Electricity, heat and natural gas losses in T&D will decrease
Mini hydro stations with a capacity of 1.2 MW are planned to be built on the Reut River;
Effective energy efficiency policy promotion.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

12. Key Assumptions for the PES Scenario
Population and GDP as in BAU Scenario;
GDP distribution for Industry Sector: 2.0% by 2050;
GDP distribution for Agriculture Sector: 1.5% by 2050;
Partial rehabilitation of existing CHPs and growth of electricity generation;
Electricity imported from Ukraine and Transnistria will decrease;
Electricity, heat and natural gas losses in T&D will decrease;
Developing renewable energy resources for own needs (small HPP, wind, biogas and solar power).
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

13. LEAP Results: Evolution of the Global Warming Potential
Scenario
Growth of Total GHG emissions, % from 2000
2000
2020
2050
BAU 36
221
Opt 10
191
Pes 15
201
Scenario
Total GHG emissions reduction, % from BAU
2000
2020
2050
BAU
Opt 19 9
Pes 15 6
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

14. Assessment of the policy mixtures
Results of AMS Method applied:
Criteria
Scenarios
BAU
OPT
PES
Direct contribution to GHG emission reductions (0,833)
83,300
65,822
Indirect environmental effects (0,167)
16,700
9,342
Environmental performance (0,168) - A
75,164
Cost efficiency (0,474)
47,300
7,837
Dynamic cost efficiency (0,183)
5,060
8,080
Competitiveness (0,085)
2,363
3,774
Equity (0,175)
17,500
13,810
Flexibility (0,051)
1,390
2,220
Stringency for non-compliance (0,032)
1,133
Political acceptability (0,738) - B
9,947
80,007
31,593
Implementation network capacity (0,309)
13,534
8,683
Administrative feasibility (0,581)
19,367
Financial feasibility (0,110)
2,179
5,424
3,397
Feasibility of implementation (0,094) - C
35,080
33,474
31,447
Total (A+B+C)
13,444
76,186
38,899
OPT is distinguished by a better performance (grade) in responding to the climate change policy needs of the country taking into consideration the national framework.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

15. OPT: Best Policy Mixture
It is assumed that the share of RES in the electricity generation will be the following:
Wind – 600MW by 2050;
Solar – 600MW by 2050;
Biogas – 50MW by 2050.
The total efficiency of the cogeneration power plant will not be less than 80% and for electricity production efficiency 45-50%
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

16. Needs and gaps observed: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION POLICY DATA
To develop country specific emission factors and methodologies, specifically for key source and sink categories;
To reduce the inventory uncertainties by improving the statistical data collection system;
To Enhance quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC) and verification activities, by setting-up a sustainable MRV system;
RM needs to develop data collection forms and detailed procedures to establish the legal foundation, guidelines and procedures for annual preparation of energy balances and other statistic datasets, required for MARKAL and LEAP models application, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) and Eurostat guidelines;
RM should develop the required legislation to require the electricity and natural gas distribution companies to include NACE codes in customer records for non-residential customers and report energy consumption to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Ministry of Economy (MoE) by NACE categories;
For the following sectors the data are not available and need extra analyses: “Frequency of extreme events” index; GDP for the periods is not available; “Energy water use (km³)” index is not covered by RM statistical system; Information about financial incentives, Carbon Taxes, Feed in tariffs, Penalties are not available for the whole studied period; energy demand cost (in EUR) is not available; Primary and Secondary fuels lack for the years ; a lot of data is lack for Transformation.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

17. Needs and gaps observed: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION SCENARIOS AND POLICY PORTFOLIOS
As the country is distinguished by low energy security (70% electricity import) and low capacity to pay for energy consumed specific studies are needed to demonstrate the share of affordable renewable electricity to cover power demand during the years;
The potential for CHP promotion should be determined on country territory taking into consideration that 4500 hours of high and constant heat demand is needed to make such PP economical;
Centralize heating demand for the years up to 2050 needs to be revised because of persisting factors leading the consumers to select autonomous heating systems;
The total energy demand in BAU scenario is easily estimated, as it is proportionate to the GDP per capita in the Household sector and to GDP in all other sectors. However, this estimation is much more complicated in OPT and PES scenarios, as the effect of specific mitigation measures has to be added. According to the Energy Strategy up to 2030 the shares of renewable energies, energy losses and power capacities are pre-established in the national balance by 2020, but neither the time horizon is sufficient, nor these shares are differentiated per economic sector;
there is no studies that would show the limits of sectors technologies dissemination and what may be the speed of their implementation during the years up to 2050, Other
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

18. Needs and gaps observed: EVALUATION OF MITIGATION & ADAPTATION POLICY INSTRUMENTS
Because of big import of energy resources in the RM, the case study developed with LEAP model was refined in order to obtain correct outputs:
It was needed to fix the negative production problem in the energy balance, to add a
new “Transformation” module for oil production; the capacity variable was used in that
module to limit the domestic production and set the module to use gap
filling imports for any demand not met by domestic production; the data that specifies
natural gas imports have been removed, etc.
Build capacities for gathering, analyzing and disseminating climate risk information, including weather data, climate modeling and impact assessment.
Needs: Study tours and research stays organized with relevant international
centers for climate assessment; Risk maps generated for the three regions of
the country (South, Centre, North), and by sector; High-risk areas identified
and prioritized.
Develop regional climate change scenarios in the Republic of Moldova for mid (2020s) and long term (2050s and 2080s) based on Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Assess risks/opportunities to sustainable development of certain sectors (agriculture, livestock, water resources, forestry, human health, energy and transport sectors) due to the increased number and intensity of extremes events as result of climate change
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

19. Future opportunities
The results obtained will be used in the preparation of National Communication: LEAP Model, Data collected, Gaps and Needs observed, AMS Method, etc.;
The list of research needs and gaps identified would help the national experts to promote new studies and works, in order to ensure pragmatic platform for more accurate outcomes on GHG emissions calculation in the future;
The data based compiled will be useful in the process of restructuring of national official statistical system, in order the last be in compliance with the EU one
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece

20. Thank you for your attention

21. Status of renewable electricity promotion
Wind Farms (WF) in the world and Moldova:
■ 24GW în GW în 2010; 37,6 GW in GW in 2011
■ In Moldova no WF electricity generated to the grid is recorded until
now
WF promotion in Moldova:
To reach 10% renewable electricity by 2020, i.e. around 200MW
Renewable electricity produced is mandatory for buying on the market
Renewable electricity tariff calculation is regulated by the appropriate Tariff Methodology published in 2009
Until now WF investors have requested access to the grid for around 800MW
Wind technical reserves are around MW

22. Wind Farm promotion challenges
WF main challenges in Moldova:
■ May the consumers support the WF electricity price?
(See: Ion Comendant. The identification of solutions to cover energy demand from renewables.
Regional Energy Problems, no. 2(16), 2011, IPE ASM, pages 39-52)
■ What is the impact of WF promotion for National Power Sector
Development and Operation?
Is WF contributing to fuel consumption reduction when operating in the power system? If yes, how much?
If fuel reduction is recorded how it influences the price for electricity produced?
How much WF contributes to energy security increase?

23. WF main features
WFs are distinguished by:
■ very low credit power for the conditions of the R. of Moldova, where
the territory is small and spaces for feasible wind is limited
■ limited interval of working wind speed : m/s. If the speed
is higher than 25 m/s WF is disconnected from the grid, producing
power imbalance in the system
■ for one WF the error for wind forecast is 10-20% for a forecast
horizon of 48 hours and reach up to 100% if the horizon is higher
than 48 h
■ when the wind is lack, another PP should replace WF power, so that
the implementation of WF in Moldova require to ensure such
compensation:
In medium and long term
In short term

24. WF operation in time horizon
Short term impact:
WF power Imbalance provoked can be covered by balancing power, that is mainly from import or, partially, from MGRES; The price for balancing power is very expensive: in 2011 the balancing power higher than 50 MW cost twice more than predicted power.
CONCLUTION: in short term WFs neither contribute to electricity price
decreasing nor to energy security increase. Even more, WFs construction leads to decreasing of existing small level of country energy security
Medium and Long term impact:
The impact depends on how power sources development will follow:
Two way: 1. Energy strategy way: it establish CHP mainly be built. Lack of
heat demand and practical difficulties to implement cogeneration
PPs impede to realize Energy Strategy option
2. IPE ASM scenario: it combines the construction of diverse PPs
(See: I. Comendant, A. Sula. Impactul factorilor de influenţă asupra scenariilor de dezvoltarea a surselor de energie electrică. Analele Institutului de Energetică al AŞM. Fascicola 2. Ch.: TAŞM, ISSN

25. What the PPs should be built to cover WF imbalance?
PPs prioritization to overcome WFs imbalance challenge
Type of fuel
Tehnology
Start up time parametres
Start up costs
Ramp rate
Minimum stable generation
Hot start up time
Cold start up time
Relative flexibility**
(% of total capacity/minute)
Value
Natural gas
Gas turbines
10-40 minute ++
20%-30%
25%-30%
Combined cycle
10-40 minute* +
5%-10%
40%
Coal
Steam boilers
40-60 minute
1-10 hours -
1%-5%
40%-50%
Nuclear
minute
13-24 hours
- -
50%-60%
* After this period a CCGT only has its turbine capacity available.
**The symbols show the relative flexibility of the different technologies; the ++ shows the most flexible least flexible unit technology, the ‐‐ shows the least flexible unit
Gas turbines and combine cycle – the most appropriate PPs:

26. Combined Cycle in tandem with WFs
The results obtained:
Items
units
CCPP 200 MW
WF 200MW1
CCPP+WF, 400MW
Efficiency % 52 - 43
Natural gas reduction
mil. M3
1102 64
Price of electricity produced
US$ c/kWh
12,20
13,601
14,75
Investments
mil. US$
130
300
430
CO2 reduction
mii CO2
2092
121
Energy Security
Ensure
Not ensure3
Notes
Examined without taking into consideration balancing power for WF capacity variation
2) At a PP with 52% efficiency
3) For the Republic of Moldova WF crediting power is taken equal to zero

27. WF+CCPP verses Coal PP ■ Investment effort:
The results obtained:
■ Investment effort:
from 1500 US$/kW (WF) to 2150 US$/kW
+650 US$/kW (CCPP) Performant Coal PP of 200MW
■ Coal PP has higher CO2 emissions then WF+CCPP tandem, But it:
leads to diversification of the fuel used in the country
Diminish significantly natural gas consumption, coming from one source
Ensure a price for electricity 24% lower than tandem WF+CCPP
Increase country energy security, as coal can be bought around the
world and the reserves are enough for the following 200 years

28. WF+CCPP verses Coal PP (CPP)
Coal PP CO2 emission problem
■ CPP emits 1304 th. tone CO2 versus 507 th. tone CO2 of CCPP+SE
■ Moldova has the obligation to diminish by 25% CO2 emissions in
2020 in comparison with In order to be in compliance with the
engagement:
To Build capturing CO2 installation at CPP
To Buy CO2 on the world market
■ Question: At what price for CO2 the price of CPP=price WF+CCPP
Answer: 57 US$/tCO2 while on the world market it is 8,6 US$/tCO2

29. Conclusions
For Moldova actual conditions it is much reasonable to develop Coal PP than to promote Wind Farms or Photovoltaic Power Plant
Only when own electricity production will reach around 100% of demand capacity WF promotion should become a goal for country energy strategy

30. Conclusions (2) BAU OPT PES
Total primary energy consumption compared to that of year 2009
Increases by 43%
Reduced by 4%
Increases by 13%
The share of RES in the total energy mix by 2020 5%
13% 2%
The GHG emissions in 2020, MtCO2eq
10.8
8.7
9.6
In the OPT scenario the total primary energy consumption is reduced only by 4%. This low percentage is attributed to the following reasons:
there is limited information within the country regarding energy efficient technologies
and practices that does not allow the achievement of the required amount of energy
savings;
aged equipment and infrastructure are responsible for losses and without the necessary
amount of investments there will be gradually higher losses;
there are not yet official reports concerning the estimation of the potential in energy
savings per sector and activity.
The GHG emissions in 2020 are 8,7MtCO2eq, which is less compared to those of the BAU scenario.
6th International Scientific Conference October, 2013, Athens, Greece