1. Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into INRMPs: Case Study Detachment Fallbrook Dawn M. Lawson SPAWAR SSC Pacific Carolyn Enquist NPN Rob Wolf TDI Christy Wolf Detachment Fallbrook Elizabeth Kellogg TDI

2. Climate Change Adaptation Planning Workshop Workshop Organization – plenary session to introduce background material – development of conceptual model of ecosystem function – Identify strategic actions including barriers and uncertainties – discussion of strategic climate informed monitoring

3. Case Study 1.simplified military operational environment 2.well developed natural resources program 3.high biodiversity with trade-offs among conservation targets 4.multiple threats from global change (climate change, invasive species, fire…) Case study conducted at Det. Fallbrook because

4. Management Objective Maintain a healthy and heterogeneous CSS community that contains a balance between early seral stage CSS (grass and forb dominated) suitable for Stephen’s kangaroo rat and later seral stages suitable for the California gnatcatcher.

5. Development of Conceptual Model

6. Conceptual Ecosystem Model

7. Hypotheses of Change

8. Identification of Strategic Actions

9. Top 3 Strategic Actions Suppress populations of high priority exotic plant species via targeted herbicide applications – control or eradication. Identify and protect habitat for important populations of CAGN and SKR as refugia from fire. Work with fire department to develop pre-suppression as well as suppression actions tailored to these refugia. Use targeted grazing to reduce the biomass of annual exotics (i.e., decreasing thatch to reduce wildfire threat and providing more suitable habitat for SKR).

10. Climate Informed Monitoring Discussion Points The goal of climate-informed monitoring is to allow NR managers to consider climate change in the context of management and other threats. The specter of climate change brings up new questions – ie are breeding seasons changing, are phenological mismatches occurring between species that depend on each other. The challenge is that existing monitoring programs are often large, complex and driven by regulatory requirements which can make changes time consuming. Ad hoc changes when a good idea comes up (ie making sure that bird monitoring programs track whether the breeding season is changing) but without programmatic review it is likely important opportunities will be missed.

11. Case Study- Lessons Learned 1.The workshop format was very effective in engaging the attendees. They received information, synthesized and applied it. 2.Only a small portion of the objectives in the INRMP could be addressed. 3.It is important to have scientists and managers working together to develop hypotheses of change. 4.Vulnerability assessments can be useful in developing hypotheses of change but not required. 5.Due to the time required to develop hypotheses of change and the regional applicability it may be better to develop them for the region as a separate endeavor from identification of strategic actions. 6.The identification of strategic actions could then be done on an installation by installation basis as part of the INRMP process. Each installation could select the most relevant potential changes based on their mission and potential operational impacts and address these in their INRMP.

12. Case Study- Lessons Learned 6.A comprehensive review of monitoring relevant to management objectives would be useful at the level of identifying what can be modified or added to monitoring efforts but not an in-depth redesign of any given monitoring effort. 7.Preparing for climate change needs to fully incorporate adaptive management – there are huge concerns about climate change but there is also huge uncertainty and so taking action needs to start with: 1.verifying that the hypothesized changes are indeed happening 2.identifying, testing and evaluating management strategies that may be more successful under hypothesized change so that if it occurs new strategies have been identified 3.climate informed monitoring - ensure ongoing monitoring programs are designed to detect hypothesized changes and differentiate between natural variability, mission impacts, ecosystem drivers including climate change.

13. San Onofre Creek Dieback Area – (based on ecological and ground water studies, concluded this dieback was within the historic range of variation) This willow dead (?) This willow resprouting from canopy This willow resprouting from lower on trunk Key future challenge - distinguishing between project effects, natural variability and climate change

14. General Concept for Incorporation of Climate Change into INRMPs 1.Regional (southwest ecoregion) development of hypotheses of change. Regional could be a) USMC installations only b) USMC and Navy c) broader coalition through perhaps LCC 2.Climate-informed monitoring. Regional review of monitoring programs to identify opportunities to improve detection of hypothesized effects of climate change, differentiate between mission effects and other drivers including climate change and natural variability 3.Camp Pendleton (or in a broader context each installation) use regional hypotheses of change and climate informed monitoring opportunities in the context of their mission and environmental setting to incorporate climate change