1. Tropical Cyclone BasinsW C E P S

2. Area of Responsibility
CPHC
NHC
JTWC
NHC
JTWC
JTWC
JTWC
= TC warning center

3. FNMOC AJTWC JTWC CPHC TPC/NHC National Hurricane Center NOAA NESDIS
SAB
FNMOC
AJTWC
RKSJ
KGWC
RODN
JTWC
CPHC
PGUA
TPC/NHC
National
Hurricane
Center
DGAR

4. Purpose of TC Satellite Reconnaissance
To assist the Typhoon Duty Officer or Hurricane Specialist in determining the position and estimated intensity of the tropical cyclone at a point in time

5. Recon Imagery Requirements
Imagery used in support of Center warnings must:
Have sufficient resolution to discern the important meteorological features
</= 1.5km visible
</= 5 km infrared
</= 15 km microwave
Be precisely geo-navigated (each pixel tied to a specific lat/lon point relative to the earth’s surface) to provide accurate position information

6. Use in the warning process, continued
Feeds in to
Objective best track
Synthetic vortex (bogus) insertion
Numerical model guidance (persistence)
Current warning position and intensity

10. Storm Track/Forecast
The importance of an accurate fix:

11. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
So - where’s the aircraft? RADAR? SFC OBS?

12. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
Aircraft recon - discontinued in WestPac 1987

13. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: WSR-88D
RADAR - 240nm from GUAM and Kadena only

14. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: WSR-88D
Surface Obs - very limited in WestPac AOR.

15. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
So - all that’s left - all too often - is two
opinions about the location of the LLCC

16. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
Which two opinions? JTWC and AFWA!

17. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
If you pick “A”, Guam
is threatened in 24 hrs...
But not if you pick “B”

18. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
Gale winds here in green

19. Storm Track/Forecast So the choice matters!
The importance of an accurate fix:
This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships
sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late!
So the choice matters!

20. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships
sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late!
The overall confidence in a single fix is
never high - unless it’s an EYE.

21. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships
sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late!
If we selected a position in-between
the two subjective position estimates….

22. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
….then we have a higher probability of
being correct…….

23. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
….or at least not too too far off…....

24. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
Most Likely
….when compared to the other two
forecasts.

25. Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:
EXTREME
Most Likely
EXTREME
….when compared to the other two
forecasts.