Presentation on theme: "9/26/20071 Building Owners and Managers Association September 26, 2007 Roads & Transit Forum by Jim Horn Dick Paylor."— Presentation transcript:
9/26/20071 Building Owners and Managers Association September 26, 2007 Roads & Transit Forum by Jim Horn Dick Paylor
9/26/20072 Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta May 16, 2006 in a speech to the National Retail Federation Congestion is not a scientific mystery, nor is it an uncontrollable force. Congestion results from poor policy choices and a failure to separate solutions that are effective from those that are not. We need a new approach, and we need it now.
9/26/20073 City of Seattle Dominates Transit Trips
5 Does light rail make sense on I-90? High Risk - Safety Standpoint (Expert Review Panel) Increases Congestion and Reduces Usage Legal Challenge - Taking of the Center Roadway There is a Better Way – more service for less money High Risk - Safety Standpoint (Expert Review Panel) Increases Congestion and Reduces Usage Legal Challenge - Taking of the Center Roadway There is a Better Way – more service for less money
9/26/20076 In Summary Costs too much Costs too much Does too little Does too little Does the wrong things Does the wrong things Costs too much Costs too much Does too little Does too little Does the wrong things Does the wrong things
9/26/20077 All-or-Nothing Ballot The Roads & Transit Package is an All-or Nothing Ballot For New and Extended Transportation Taxes Approval of ST2 Includes Extension of ST1 Taxes New tax Levies: RTID – +0.1% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET ST2 – Extends the ST1 0.4% Sales Tax and increases it to 0.9% Total Package Tax – 1.0% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET Tax Sunset Years RTID – Will Sunset in 2037 after accelerated bond payoff ST1 & ST2 – Hopeful reduction after 2057 bond payoff But obligated to cover O&M costs and capital replacement Reserves in perpetuity 7
9/26/20078 A 50-year Tax Commitment The R&T is a 50-year transportation tax commitment -- 90% dedicated to public transit But even ST admits that ST2 will have an insignificant effect on road congestion reduction Shifts 0.5% of 16.4 million person trips/day to transit by 2030 It will be 20 years before most of ST2 rail goes into operation Road Congestion is the #1 concern for this region – The RTID is a vastly reduced start on addressing road congestion 8
9/26/20079 R&T Tax Revenue Estimates Program Thru 2027 Cum thru 2057 % Total ST1 extended $11.4 $64 41% ST2 $15.0 $77 49% RTID $8.0 $16* 10% Total $34.5 $157** 100% Actual $ in billions * Tax collections end in 2037. ** $157 billion in local tax commitment with one pull of the lever at the polls in Nov 2007 – 90% to be dedicated to public transit, mostly to the 70-mile light rail system overlay of existing express bus routes.
9/26/200710 R&T Tax Costs per Household Sound Transit has published extreme lowball estimates RTID - $25 + $80 per $10,000 of vehicle value per year (2006$) ST2 - $125 per year; no reminder of ST1 tax extension (2006$) Business tax pass-thru to householders ignored plus other omissions Dividing Tax Revenues by Households yields : 10 Program In 2009* ST1 $336 ST2 $332 RTID $204 Totals $872 Cum thru 2057 $38,100 (41%) $44,900 (48%) $10,600 (11%) $93,600** * First full year of R&T tax collections ** 50-year cumulative tax collections per household in Actual$
9/26/200711 Excluded from the RTID No funding for the Alaskan Way Viaduct Project No funding for I-5 Improvements Incomplete funding for SR-509 Extension (SeaTac) Incomplete funding for SR-167 Ext to Port of Tacoma No funding for Valley Freeway (SR-167) expansion No funding for expansion of I-405 north of Bellevue CBD Incomplete funding for SR-520 Bridge Replacement No funding for SR-520/SR-202 terminal mess in Redmond Only Phase 1 funding for US-2 Monroe Bypass and no expansion of US-2 from Monroe eastward 11
9/26/200712 RTID Fin Plan Summary 2008 thru 2027 thru 2037 Comment Revenues Local Taxes $8,057 $16,100 End of tax collection Bond Proceeds 6,255 0 Principal Repaid Other/Interest 154 250 Total $14,466 $16,350 Total Program Revenue Expenses Capital Projects $9,672 $9,672 Finance Costs 4,313 6,380* *Interest Cost only Admin/Reserves 481 298 Bond reserves released Total $14,466 $16,350 12 Actual $ in millions Total Tax Commitment = $16,100 O&M Costs revert to existing highway tax revenues
9/26/200713 What Does ST2 Include? 50 miles of Light Rail extensions that merely overlay existing downtown Seattle-centric Express Bus Routes 95% of the ST2 Capital Investment program Regional Express (REx) Bus System (3%): 1 transit center and 3 park-ride lots Bus fleet enhancements and two new bases (transferred from ST1) 29 of 33 requested REx projects eliminated, including all new routes and facilities in the I-405 corridor called for in the adopted corridor plan Sounder (2%): 7 of the 18 proposed ST2 projects (mostly transferred from ST1) ST2 is now 95% Dedicated to Light Rail Extensions 13
9/26/200714 ST2 Fin Plan Summary thru 2057 Comment By MacIsaac thru Bond retirement $77,000 Adds to $64 billion ST1 Extension 4,400 $600m Capital, Balance for O&M 0 Principal repaid by 2057 14,300 15% of Total Cost $95,700 Total Program Revenue $17,500 95% to Light Rail extensions 52,000 With half the COP warning 9,100 17,100 $95,700 7/28/2007 14 2008 thru 2027 Revenues Local Taxes $15,000 Federal Grants 900 Bond Proceeds 7,320 Fares & Other 340 Total $23,560 Expenses Capital Projects $17,500 Op &Admin Costs 2,630 Finance Costs 2,010 Reserves 1,420 Total $23,560 Actual $ in millions ST Disclosure of Program Cost = $23,560 + $7,240 = $30,800 $7,240 after 2027 The 50-year Cost Commitment
9/26/200715 In 1990 8.2% 0.6% 7% Local County Transit In 1997 8.6% 1.0% 12% Sound Transit Phase 1 Tax Added In 2007 8.9% 1.3% 15% MVET Replacement and KC Transit Now With Prop 1 9.5% 1.9% 20% Plus 0.5% Sound Transit; Plus 0.1% RTID Total Transit % of S.Tax Share Total Should 20% of all state sales tax be dedicated to Transit? Transit Sales Tax Escalation
9/26/200716 Transit Ridership Sound Transit releases ridership in terms of Boardings But the true measure is completed trips from O to D Trips via Light Rail require 2 or 3 bus and rail Boardings Below are Sound Transits estimates for transit usage 7/28/2007 16 ST Service Area 2030 Average Weekday Trips* 2006 Base 2030 w/o ST2** With ST2 Change Total Person Trips 10,300,000 14,900,000 14,900,000 Total Transit Trips 278,000 482,000 553,000 +74,000 Transit Mode Share 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% 0.5% Transit Boardings 359,000 661,000 814,000 +153,000 Transfer Rate 1.29 1.37 1.47 2.06 * Source: ST Making Connections, Appendix C, June 2007 ** Includes ST1 Regional Transit program.
9/26/200717 What is Your Plan? The question often posed to light rail opponents We suggest that this region continue to pursue the Rapid Bus Transit program that it has been pursuing for 30 years Continue expanding the Transit/HOV lane system on freeway corridors with promised WSDOT management that has brought us to 8 th in the nation for transit share Eliminate the expensive rail transit overlay and dedicate the capital investment savings to cost-effective transit and road capacity enhancement The following slide illustrates the proposed transit system alternative 7/28/2007 17
9/26/200718 Cost-effective Transit Plan 7/28/2007 18 <–– This as proposed by Sound Transit for $144 Billion thru 2057 to overlay existing Express Bus services Or This to interconnect the suburban region with a regional transit system that provides new transit services for those not served today for 1/5 th the cost? ––> Let us pursue a cost- effective transit address to our job access needs
9/26/200719 In Summary Costs too much Costs too much Does too little Does too little Does the wrong things Does the wrong things Costs too much Costs too much Does too little Does too little Does the wrong things Does the wrong things