1. CGE TRAINING MATERIALS- VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A) ASSESSMENT
Chapter 2
Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

2. Introduction, Planning and Adaptation Frameworks
PART 1:
Introduction, Planning and Adaptation Frameworks

3. Objectives and Expectations
Having read this presentation in conjunction with the related handbook, the reader should:
Recognize the rationale for the need for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments
Be familiar with key terms, concepts and purposes of V&A assessments
Identify the various options that can be taken into consideration when undertaking a V&A assessment
Be able to use Planning and Adaptation Frameworks suited to respective national circumstances. 3

4. Some Introductory Remarks

5. Update of the Training Materials
The previous version (2005) is outdated and the updated version reflects the following:
Important findings from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007)
Significant update of methods, tools and data requirements for V&A assessment
Experience from Parties in undertaking national communications
The existing structure of the previous training material was maintained, to ensure continuity and consistency.

6. Update of the Training Materials: A Template Approach

7. Handbook Structure Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2
Planning, Including Selecting Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Chapter 3
Baseline Socio-economic Scenarios
Chapter 4
Climate Change Scenarios
Chapter 5
Coastal Resources
Chapter 6
Water Resources
Chapter 7
Agriculture
Chapter 8
Human Health
Chapter 9
Integration, Mainstreaming, Monitoring and Evaluation
Chapter 10
Communication of V&A Analysis in National Communications
Chapter 11
Bibliography

8. Important Sources of Related Information
UNFCCC (2008) Resource guide for preparing the national communications of non-Annex I Parties (Modules 1-4) < s/2625.php>
UNFCCC (2008) Compendium of methods and tools to evaluation impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change”: < and_adaptation/application/pdf/consolidated_version_updated_ pdf>
UNDP-NCSP(2006) National Communications Support Programme Resource Kit.
PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 2012 draft,

9. “To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail”
Methods or models do not provide answers, but can help us gain insights
The first step is to consider the question(s) being asked.
This slide was written to steer those conducting assessments away from being enamored with models. Models can be fun to apply but they can become an end in themselves. One has to always remember they are tools.
The most important thing is the questions being asked. Then the appropriate methods should be selected to help in answering the questions.

10. Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment
What is of concern?
Food production, water supply, health?
Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g. extreme temperatures, but in terms of consequences of climate change for people.
Who may be affected?
How far into the future is of concern?
Note: concerns may focus on current risks (which could be made worse by climate change).
These are some of the key questions that should be answered at the beginning of an assessment. They will be useful for setting boundaries for the assessment and for determining what methods and approaches may be needed.

11. Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment
For what purpose is the assessment to be used?
Raising awareness (education)?
Policy making (e.g. to inform a particular decision).
What kind of output is needed?

12. Additional Questions Before Starting the V&A Assessment
What resources are available to conduct the study?
Money
Staff
Expertise
Data
Regional linkages
Relationships with donors and development partners.
How much time is available?
These practical questions about resource availability are also important too. If time, money, or staffing is limited, there is less you can do. If you have more of them, you can do more.

13. Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study
You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with “the previous questions.
Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions.
Once you have determined the questions to be addressed and the availability of resources, then you can look at what methods and models are appropriate.

14. Different Questions May Lead to Different Approaches
Questions about how climate change may affect resources may lead to analysis of long-term impacts (e.g. out to 2100).
Questions about adaptation may lead to analysis of vulnerability within a planning horizon (e.g. 5 to 50 years)
The time frame being examined is also a very important matter. Those interested in understanding impacts of climate change ought to look over many decades, perhaps out to This is because climate change impacts become more easy to detect or differentiate from current climate variation in the long run.
Those more interested in current vulnerability or adaptation strategies may wish to focus on the next few decades up to about This is generally because most policy makers would have difficulty planning for more than a few decades and some might even have difficulty planning for a few decades into the future.

15. Who is Asking the Question(s) May Determine How the Work is Done
Some may be content with research that is conducted by the researchers
Others may wish for a hands-on approach:
e.g. Involve stakeholders in conducting the analysis and also shaping outputs by helping with sectoral and geographic prioritization.
How the analysis is done is also important. This is something that should be sorted out with stakeholders. For some, it is not important who does the analysis, as long as the stakeholders trust that it is being done well. Other stakeholders may wish to take an active role in conducting the analysis or have people they trust (e.g., have worked with previously) conduct the research.
Either way, it is important to keep stakeholders involved, at least by keeping them informed about progress and interim results.

16. What information is needed?
Bottom Line:
What information is needed?
When is the information needed?
Who needs the information?
The key question is what information is needed and when is it needed. Trainers could ask participants to answer these questions or have a group conversation about them.

17. Impacts of Climate Change
Impact is typically the effect of climate change:
For biological systems, it can be change in productivity, quality, population, or range
For societal systems, it can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being.
Parry and Carter (1998) define impacts this way. Note that there a few formal definitions of “impacts of climate change.” The term “vulnerability” is more commonly used. The term “impacts” is often used more loosely.

18. Adaptation
Adaptation refers to initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems, against actual or expected climate change effects.
Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, and autonomous and planned.
Examples include: raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants for sensitive ones, etc. (IPCC, 2007)
This may not include “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate .

19. Adaptation (continued)
Two types of adaptation:
Autonomous adaptation ( or reactive adaptation) tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent
Anticipatory (or proactive or planned) adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change.

20. Adaptation Learning Cycle
Four broad iterative tasks of an adaptation learning cycle:
Assessing climate change vulnerability and impacts
Appraising adaptation and selection adaptation options
Implementation adaptation options
Monitoring and evaluating adaptation action and learning
The process of adaptation is often framed in terms of an adaptation learning cycle
Iterative learning is necessary due to the complex and often contested nature of adaptation challenges

21. Decision Trees: support the identification of critical tasks and methods
PROVIA (2012)

22. Empirically Based Methods
Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and come to a conclusion. These methods often require the commitment of substantial resources.

23. Theory-driven Approach
A theory-driven approach, makes use of existing theoretical insights into the nature and causes of vulnerability to select variables for inclusion, although in practice this necessarily occurs within the limits placed by data availability.
This inevitably leads to subjectivity in the choice of indicators, but that can be addressed by ensuring all decisions are grounded in the existing literature and made fully transparent.

24. Characteristics of the Climate Hazards
Description
Value
Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods
Type
Are risks due to current climate vulnerability?
Yes/no
(i.e. extreme event, slow-onset)
If extreme events are considered, decisions may take into account current climate
Observed trend
Has a past trend been observed?
Unknown, not knowable, clear direction, no direction
If a past trend has been observed, then it is easier to motivate the affected actors to adapt.
If the trend is unknown, collecting data is indicated
Future impacts
Given a scenario, can I compute impacts (or outcomes)
If future impacts (or outcomes) can be computed, decision-making methods on future outcomes are appropriate.
Climate change is the dominant risk factor
Climate change is considered to be a major driver only if it is important relative to the other drivers involved
If climate change is not the major driver, analysing climate change impacts is not a priority, focus on the other drivers or on factors that are internal to the AS.

25. Characteristics of the Affected Actors
Description
Value
Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods
Heterogeneity
Degree difference in socio-economic characteristics between relevant actors
High/low
If degree of difference is high, options which require collective action may be difficult
Group size
Size of group affected by impacts and taking adaptive action
Small/large
If group size is small, collective action options may be more easily taken
Damaged experienced
Have actors suffered damage due to extreme weather events
Yes/no
If yes, it is necessary to focus on current risks
Awareness of current risks
Actors perception of risks from current vulnerability and extremes
If low, risk communication and awareness raising are indicated
Potential capacity
Actors ability to take adaptation action, includes financial, human, and social capital
If low, incentives may be considered to influence adaptation
Actual capacity
Actors actual capacity to act in situation, given possible cognitive and institutional barriers
If actors have low actual capacity, institutional or behavioural analysis to identify cognitive and institutional barriers to action are indicated

26. Characteristics of the Adaptation Options
Description
Value
Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods
Relative costs
Investment costs relative to actors annual income and capital stock.
High/low
If the costs are high, the ability to experiment and learn (through ex-post evaluation) may be reduced
Investment horizon
Time interval over which outcomes attributes can be attributed to an option and must be considered.
Short/long
If the horizon is long, then it is desirable to assess impacts, or include impacts in decision -making
Flexibility
Degree to which option can be adjusted, or changed.
Institutional options tend to be more flexible than physical options
Yes/no
If option can be adjusted easily, then adaptive management may be appropriate
Conflict
Degree to which individual preferences and social welfare are in conflict
If conflict is high, then institutional analysis may be necessary
Complexity
Number and degree of interdependency of variables that determine outcomes
If the complexity is high, it is necessary to conduct detailed case studies and/or build models in order to understand and predict action-outcome linkages.
If low, decisions can be made without expert knowledge

27. Identifying Tasks Based on Adaptation
The looped circles indicate that once a task has been identified and a method applied, the process should be repeated, based on the new adaptation situation to identify the next task.
PROVIA (2012)

28. Impact and Capacity Analysis
Analyse future impacts or current state?
Impact analysis
Capacity analysis
Private sector
National prioritizing
Resource constraints
Time constraints
Lack of data
Large uncertainties
Participatory setting
The focus on impact analysis or capacity analysis, is often not determined by clear-cut criteria:
Impact analysis may be more appropriate to identify priorities for national or regional adaptation interventions or deeper analysis
Capacity analysis may be more appropriate to identifying and designing actions at local levels.
PROVIA (2012)

29. High-order Decision Tree for Capacity Analysis
Capacity of whom?
Organizational self- assessment
Public
Purpose of the analysis?
Adaptive capacity indication
Quick high-level screening in order to prioritize further analysis
Private
Public capacity analysis
Identification of public adaptation options
PROVIA (2012)

30. Analysing Impacts
Analysing observed or expected impacts of climate change (with and without adaptation). Tasks and methods associated with this sub-task will be called impact-analytical approaches.
Analysing the capacity to prevent, moderate or adapt to these impacts requires a diverse range of approaches including indicators, behaviour-analytical and institution-analytical approaches

31. Impact-analytical Methods

32. Decision Tree to Identify Impact Analytical Tasks and Methods
PROVIA (2012)

33. Impact-analytical Methods
Type
Subtype
Impact Projection
Potential Impact Projection (PIP)
Residual Impact Projection (RIP)
Task
Project future impacts of climate change
Characteristics
of Adaptation Strategies (AS)
Interaction between the drivers and the study unit can be formally represented as a computational model. Given a scenario , impacts can be computed
Theoretical
assumptions
People affected do not adapt.
People affected adapt
Adaptation can be formally represented by a computational model
Steps taken
1. Selection of climate and socio-economic scenarios
2. Computation of the potential impacts of those scenarios
3. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators
2. Selection of adaptation options and strategies
3. Computation of the impacts of the scenarios and the adaptation strategies
4. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators
Results
achieved
A list of propositions that map each scenario to an impact. Each proposition is interpreted in the following way: “When the world evolves according to scenario e and people don't adapt, the impact on will be i”
A list of propositions that map each scenario to a residual impact. Each proposition is interpreted: "When the world evolves according to scenario e and one adapts according to strategy a, the impact on the vulnerable system will be i"

34. Impact-analytical Methods (continued)
Type
Subtype
Impact Projection
Potential Impact Projection (PIP)
Residual Impact Projection (RIP)
Example
Cases
Dasgupta et al. (2007) address the question of what are the impacts of sea-level rise on developing countries. Impacts are projected for sea-level rise scenarios of 1 to 5 meter by overlaying data on land, population, agriculture,
urban extent, wetlands and gross domestic product (GDP) with the inundation zones of the sea-level rise scenarios. They found that tens of millions of people will be displaced and economic damages will be severe but limited to a couple of countries
Hinkel et al. (2010) address the question of what will be both the potential and the residual impacts of sea-level rise on coastal countries of the EU27.
The authors use the DIVA model to project the impacts of various sea-level
rise and socio-economic scenarios on the countries first without any adaptation (potential impacts) and then with an adaptation strategy (residual
impacts) that raises dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishes
beach to protect against coastal erosion. It is found that, while the potential impacts are substantial, adaptation reduces these impacts significantly by one or two orders of magnitude
Issues involved
Rarely understood that potential impacts will almost certainly not occur because adaptation will take place. For example, people living in the coastal zone are likely to move away before experiencing permanent flooding
How to model adaptation? Model of adaptation (e.g. dumb, typical, smart and clairvoyant farmer) used has a significant indication on the results produced

35. Decision-tree: Choosing Tasks Relevant to Analysing Capacity
Decision-tree for choosing tasks relevant to analysing capacity from a public perspective in order to identify options
PROVIA (2012)

36. Entry Point: Public Adaptation Problem in Which the Analyst Must Consider the Critical Tasks for Influence the Adaptation of Other (Private) Actors
Inter-dependence
Potential
capacity of private
actors
Actual
capacity
of private
Example
Indication on the next task to carry out No
High
Low
Public actor wanting to influence elderly people living in isolated areas, often alone threatened by heat waves
Behaviour analysis addressing the question: How the capacity of the vulnerable actors to address the risk could be increased. As the actual capacity of the vulnerable actors is low, awareness raising or behaviour and institutional analysis are indicated
Public actor wanting to influence Tuscan wine farmers threatened by gradual change in mean temperature
As the vulnerable actors have
capacity to address risks but are not aware of it, the next task would be risk communication or awareness raising (risk communication, training, TV ads)
Yes
Farmers using a shared and already scarce groundwater resource that is declining under climate change
Institutional analysis addressing the question what kind of institutional arrangements may resolve conflict
Public actor wanting to influence farmers so that they keep migration corridors open in order to allow species to migrate and thus maintain biodiversity
Appraising economic incentives. As actors may not have capacity to address the potential loss of biodiversity on their own due to lack of financial incentive to do so, addressing the problem may be a question of designing appropriate economic incentives e.g. through agri-environmental schemes

37. Decision Tree Institution-analytical Tasks
PROVIA (2012)

38. Decision-tree for Choosing the General Approach to Decision-making
PROVIA (2012)

39. Empirical Methods
Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and come to a conclusion(s). These methods require often substantial resources to be committed.

40. Methods for Selecting an Option From a Set
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
Cost-effective analysis (CEA)
Multi-criteria analysis (MCA).
The criteria for selecting between CBA, CEA and MCA are based on which outcome attributes are of interest to the decision maker.
If all attributes can be assigned one common attribute of money, then CBA is appropriate.
If only one of the attributes cannot be assigned as a money attribute, then CEA is appropriate.
When two or more attributes cannot be assigned a common monetary attribute (and also cannot be expressed in one common attribute) MCA is appropriate.

41. Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation
Are there
risks due to
current
climate variability?
Does the set
of options
include only
short-term/
flexible options?
Given a
scenario, can I compute
the outcome
of a given option?
Relative
costs of
options
Example
Next task indicated.
Yes
n/r
High
Agriculture threatened by drought, options = (several drought-resistant crops)
CBA, MCA No
Forestry threatened by forest fires, options = (emergency response options; planting different tree species )
Coasts threatened by floods.
options = (protect, retreat, spread risk)
Robust decision-making on current and futures
outcomes
Biodiversity is threatened as species habitats shifts decrease in area, and may not permit migration due to lack of corridors.
options = (maintain habitat corridors,
agri-environmental schemes, national park)
Robust decision-making on future options

42. Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation (continued)
Are there
risks due to
current
climate variability?
Does the set
of options
include only
short-term/
flexible options?
Given a
scenario, can I compute
the outcome
of a given option?
Relative
costs of
options
Example
Next task indicated. No
Yes
High
Agriculture threatened by drought,
Options = (improving irrigation)
Ski lift operators threatened by decreasing snow fall.
options = (summer tourism, artificial snow-making, give up)
Robust decision-making on current and future outcomes
n/r
Not known
Extreme event risk in central
Europe
As the direction of the trend in risks is not clear, adaptation action is not required

43. Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
PART 2:
Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

44. Overview of Frameworks
Description of some vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) frameworks
One size does not fit all
Select a framework or method that best suits:
The questions being asked
Who is asking them
What kind of answers are needed
What resources, time data and technical support are available
Have you used one before.
This section briefly reviews a number of V&A frameworks.
No single framework will be appropriate for all circumstances.
Users should consider different frameworks and select one that best suits the bullets in the slide.
Users may also wish to select different components of different frameworks, as long as the whole enables the questions identified at the beginning of the assessment to be addressed.

45. “Start with the end in mind”

46. Two Types of Frameworks
Impacts:
Also known as “first generation” or “top down”
Adaptation:
Also known as “second generation” or “bottom up”.
We can divide the V&A frameworks into two categories: “impacts” and “adaptation.” These particular terms have not been widely used; more common are the terms listed in the sub-bullets.

47. The Top-down Approach versus the Bottom-up Approach
Source: Dessai and Hulme, 2004.
Dessai and Hulme point out differences between bottom up (adaptation) and top down (impacts) frameworks. The differences include:
Focus. Bottom up tend to focus on social vulnerabilities; top down tend to at least start with analysis of biophysical impacts, e.g., change in crop yields, runoff, or sea level rise.
Scale. Bottom up tend to focus on smaller geographic scales, whereas top down tend to focus on larger geographic scale impacts.
Time Horizon. Bottom up tend to address past and near term risks or concerns, while top down tend to address longer tem risks, e.g., fifty to one hundred years in the future.

48. Tend to look out many decades (to 2100 or beyond)
Impacts Frameworks
These frameworks are driven by the need to understand long-term consequences:
Tend to look out many decades (to 2100 or beyond)
Tend to be scenario driven
Impacts frameworks focus on consequences of climate change. They look out many decades to capture more significant change in climate (the further from the present the greater the change in climate). They also tend to rely on scenarios, e.g., from climate models.
One of the reasons for examining long-term consequences, particularly in the first generation frameworks, was to inform policy makers about the potential consequences of continued GHG emissions. Given the lifetime of carbon dioxide (the main GHG) in the atmosphere, it makes sense to look out as far as a century.

49. Adaptation Frameworks
These frameworks are driven by the following:
The need to supply useful information to stakeholders:
They tend to address near-term concerns
Often address climate variability and change
Emphasis is on the socio-economic context
Stakeholder identification of issues and involvement in process:
Bring in analysis as necessary and appropriate
Can use consultative/consensus-building techniques.
Adaptation frameworks tend to address more near term concerns such as vulnerability to climate variability. Socioeconomic context (e.g., sustainable livelihoods) is very important.
They also tend to involve stakeholders more than the impacts frameworks.

50. Adaptation Continuum
(Source: McGray et al., (2007) in Klein and Persson, 2008)

51. Adaptation Continuum
(Source: McGray et al., 2007)

52. Adaptation Dimensions

53. U.S. Country Studies Program (1993 -1999)
Impacts Frameworks
IPCC Seven Steps (1994)
UNEP Handbook (1998)
U.S. Country Studies Program ( )
We will review these three “impacts” frameworks. The were created in the early to mid-1990s.

54. Basic Structure for Impacts Frameworks
The basic structure for the impacts frameworks is presented here.
The assessment begins with development of baseline scenarios. These are scenarios of changes in socioeconomic conditions, such as population, income (gross domestic product or GDP), technologies, institutions, and environmental conditions. As baseline conditions change, so too can vulnerability (e.g., by changing exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity).
Scenarios of climate change are then developed and applied.
The first analysis of impacts is typically on biophysical impacts such as amount of land potentially inundated by sea level rise, change in crop yields, change in runoff, etc.
If the impacts on society are being examined, the next analysis is on the effects of climate change on society. Often, this is the consequence of biophysical changes In considering the impacts on society, autonomous adaptation should be taken into account (because people will most likely attempt to adapt to climate change). In addition, integration of impacts across related systems and sectors (e.g., examine not just in water supply, but how it would affect related sectors such as agriculture, but also examine change in demand for water).
The result of all of this is estimation of vulnerability of a system.
Purposeful (or proactive) adaptations can then be examined. These may be changes in baseline conditions to anticipate potential impacts of climate change.

55. Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts
IPCC Seven Steps
Define the problem
Select the method
Test the method
Select scenarios
Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts
Assess autonomous adjustments
Evaluate adaptation strategies.
IPCC Seven steps were developed by Tim Carter and colleagues (1994). It was the first attempt to define a process for assessing vulnerability to climate change.
Sources: Carter et al., 1994; Parry and Carter, 1998.

56. U.S. Country Studies Program
Provided detailed guidance on specific methods:
Coastal resources
Agriculture
Livestock
Water resources
Vegetation
Human health
Wildlife
Fisheries
Adaptation
Publications.
The U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) ran in the early to mid-1990s. The USCSP worked with more than 50 developing countries and countries in transition on GHG inventories, V&A, and mitigation strategies. More than 40 countries assessed vulnerability and adaptation.
Detailed guidance was provided on assessment methods for all of the sectors listed. The guidance applied to only one method per sector.
Sources: Benioff and Warren (eds.) [addresses assessment of adaptation]; Benioff et al. (eds.) [contains guidance on impacts assessment for all the sectors listed].

57. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Handbook
Presents overviews of methods:
It is a source for information on different methods
Does not provide detailed guidance.
Topics include:
Climate change scenarios
Socio-economic scenarios.
        
The UNEP Handbook was intended to provide information about a number of methods so users could compare methods and choose among them. Unlike the USCSP guidance, it did not provide details on how to apply individual methods.
The topics include the two listed here and the topics on the next slide.

58. UNEP Handbook (continued)
Integration
Adaptation
Water resources
Coastal zones
Agriculture
Rangeland and livestock
Human health
Energy
Forests
Biodiversity
Fisheries
Feenstra et al. (eds.), 1998.

59. Second Generation Adaptation Frameworks
United nations Development Programme (UNDP):
Adaptation Policy Framework (2005)
Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives (2010)
National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) Guidance
USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change (2007)
Community Vulnerability Frameworks.
These are some of the main frameworks that can be considered to be “second generation,” “bottom-up,” or “adaptation” frameworks.

60. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (2005)
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is the first of the “second generation” frameworks. It was developed to place much more emphasis on current vulnerabilities to climate variability than were the “first generation” frameworks. Thus, assessing current vulnerability (to current climate risks) is the second step in the framework. The framework also emphasizes continued stakeholder involvement in the assessment process.
The APF can be downloaded at
It is also published in: Lim et al. (eds.) 2005.

61. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued)
Contains technical papers on the following:
Scoping and designing an adaptation project
Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process
Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation
Assessing current climate risks
Assessing future climate risks
Assessing current and changing socio-economic conditions
Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity
Formulating an adaptation strategy
Continuing the adaptation process.
The technical papers provide more details on specific aspects of the framework. Each number in the slide corresponds to the number of the technical paper.

62. UNDP Adaptation Toolkit (2010)

63. National Adaptation Programmes of Action
NAPA Guidance
National Adaptation Programmes of Action
Least developed countries (LDCs) identify and rank proposed measures to adapt to climate change
Decision 28/CP.7
The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) is the one guidance that comes out of the Convention process.
It is tied to allocation of adaptation funds under the Convention.
NAPAs were approved at COP-7 (in Marrakech).

64. NAPA Process
The NAPA process emphasizes building on existing assessments, undertaking a national consultative process, and setting priorities for adaptation projects to address urgent vulnerabilities.

65. NAPA Guidance (continued)
The guidance document provides the framework for developing NAPAs
It discusses the following:
Objectives and characteristics of NAPA’s guiding elements
Process
Structure.
The NAPA guidance can be obtained at

66. NAPA Guidance (continued)
Outcome of COP17 Durban
This guidance document, is not designed to replace NAPAs
It is designed to allow all developing countries (not just LDCs as per NAPAs) to plan and implement medium-to long-term adaptation initiatives
Support for the NAP process will be provided through a Global Support Programme (GSP) for implementation in the second half of 2012.

67. Differences Between the NAPA and NAP process
(Source: Draft NAP Global Support Programme (GSP), submission to the GEF 2012)

68. USAID Framework
USAID Adapting to climate variability and change; A guidance manual for development planning

69. USAID Framework
USAID Adapting to climate variability and change; A guidance manual for development planning

70. Risk-Based Frameworks
Risk is defined as:
The chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives
So risk is positive and negative
And….must be a risk to something (a management objective).

71. Risk-Based Frameworks
(Source: AdaptiveFutures, 2011)

72. Risk-Based Frameworks
(Source: Australian Government, 2006)

73. Four NGO Local and Community Frameworks
Sourced from:
See chapter for more details

74. Selecting a Framework
We are not recommending use of a particular framework:
Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs
What is needed in the long run is the integration of climate change predictions and adaptation with a baseline of vulnerability.
The frameworks are divided between adaptation and impacts. What is desirable is if these approaches can be merged in a manner that can begin with vulnerabilities (which often are based in the present) but can integrate long-term risks from climate change.

75. Selecting a Framework: Guiding Questions
What is of concern – food production, water supply, health, ecosystem loss?
(Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms (e.g. extreme temperature) but in consequences of climate impacts for people (e.g. drought, flood, malnutrition)
Are there places (areas) that may be particularly vulnerable that may need specific risk assessments?
Who may be affected – where are they and what groups in society?
How far into the future is the concern?
For what purpose is the assessment to be used – raising awareness (education), policymaking?
What kind of output is needed?

76. Application of Frameworks
Projects often take longer and cost more than originally thought (or proposed)
Be careful about complex frameworks
You may only get through the first few steps before running out of time or funds
Think about how a sectoral project will be run to promote consistency
Think about integrating sectoral assessments at the end.

77. Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study
You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with the important questions
Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions.