1. C LIMATE R ESEARCH IN THE C ARIBBEAN Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona

2. C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH Task Quick idea of some of the climate research being done in the Caribbean. Why Research supports the delivery of services. Validation of service (e.g. forecasts) Establishing linkages especially for socio-economic impacts Providing justifications and explanations Assisting in the development and targeting of service Understanding and helping to express uncertainties and limitations 2

3. C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean. 3 Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean. Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations… Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel… “It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

4. C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH 4 What is some of the Research? Research that is trying to at least answer 4 questions (being asked of climate researchers…)

5. W HAT ? 5 1 2 3 4 C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH QUESTIONS

6. W HAT Y OU M EAN B Y C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE ? 6 1 2 3 4 Interest: Defining it and its drivers

7. 7 1. Dry Season December - April 3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - Aug –Nov 2. Rainfall Season May - November Peaks in September/October Rainfall Climatology 1 2 3 1 C ARIBBEAN C LIMATOLOGY 2 3 4 Ashby et al. (2004)

8. 8 High Pressure Trade Wind Strength + vertical shear SSTs Easterly Waves 1 2 3 4 C ARIBBEAN C LIMATOLOGY Ashby et al. (2004)

9. W HAT ? 9 1 3 4 C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH QUESTIONS 2 W ELL W HAT ? … IS CLIMATE ?

10. 10 W ELL W HAT A BOUT L AST Y EAR ? 1 3 4 2 Interest: Explaining modes of variability and manifestation of those modes.

11. 11 2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean 1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean 3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean El Niño M ODES OF V ARIABILITY 1 3 4 2

12. 12 2. Dry season drier in south Caribbean 1. Late wet season drier in most of the Caribbean 3. Early Wet season drier in most of the Caribbean El Niño M ODES OF V ARIABILITY 1 3 4 2 Changes large scale circulations Increases shear Warms Caribbean Sea

13. 13 NAO+ ENSO Combinations of Patterns of variability +50% a 3-5 yrs +15-30% a 5-10 yrs 20% a >10 yrs +60% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs <50% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs 16-33% a >10 yrs Gouirand et al. (2011) M ODES OF V ARIABILITY 1 3 4 2

14. 14 Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan- Feb. Gradients in SSTs between Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Atlantic Low level wind strengths (CLLJ) Drier than normal Caribbean basin during midsummer drought M ODES OF V ARIABILITY 1 3 4 2 Gradient Indices

15. 15 Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan- Feb. Caribbean Rain/Drought Models MJJ RAIN = – 0.0610 + 0.3111 NINO3(FMA) – 0.0675 SLP2(FMA) – 0.0299 SLP4(FMA) + 0.1187 VSH4(FMA) ASON RAIN = – 0.0280 + 1.5822 CSST(MJJ) – 0.7227 PACEq(MJJ) – 0.5739 PACTNA(MJJ) R 2 = 0.76 R 2 = 0.70 M ODES OF V ARIABILITY 1 3 4 2

16. W HAT ? 16 1 4 C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH QUESTIONS 2 W ELL W HAT ? 3 S O W HAT ? … IS CLIMATE ? … ABOUT DEVIATIONS ?

17. 17 Indices of Extremes S O W HAT A BOUT T HAT B IG D ROUGHT IN 2010? 1 4 3 2 3 month SPI Jamaica 6 month SPI Jamaica Walters et al. (2011)

18. 18 Interest: Manifestation and Influences C LIMATE E XTREMES 1 4 3 2 12 month SPI Jamaica

19. 19 SST composite: Flood minus Drought 1 4 3 2 C LIMATE E XTREMES Interest: Manifestation and Influences

20. W HAT ? 20 1 C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH QUESTIONS 2 W ELL W HAT ? 3 S O W HAT ? 4 W HAT N EXT ? … IS CLIMATE ? … ABOUT DEVIATIONS ? … ABOUT EXTREMES ?

21. 21 Interest:Historical and Future Climate Change and Impacts W HAT ABOUT THE N EXT 50 YEARS ? 1 2 3 4

22. 22 Stephenson et al (2013) Total rainfall Intense rainfall 1961-20101986-2010 Historical Change C LIMATE C HANGE 1 2 4 3

23. T OOLS PRECIS RCM WRF RCMSDSM MRI AGCM (20 km) RegCM4. RainSiM LARS WG Aqua Crop Future Change C LIMATE C HANGE 1 2 4 3

24. 24 Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2. General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century. Drying between 25% and 30% Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA. Drying exceeds natural variability June- October – wet season dryer! C LIMATE C HANGE 1 4 2 3 Campbell et al. (2010)

25. 25 Mean changes in the annual mean surface temperature for 2071-2099 with respect to 1961-1989, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2. Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm. Warming between 1 and 5 o C Warming greater under A2 scenario. Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe. Warming far exceeds natural variability 1 4 2 3 C LIMATE C HANGE Campbell et al. (2010)

26. 26 hot hotter Taylor et al. (2011) C LIMATE C HANGE 1 4 2 3 Why?

27. 27 Modeling the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential of Suriname – A study of the Kabalebo river basin HYDRO model, GIS, PRECIS (25 km) C LIMATE C HANGE 1 4 2 3 Nurmohamed et al. (201`3)

28. W HAT ? 28 1 C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH 2 W ELL W HAT ? 3 S O W HAT ? 4 W HAT N EXT ? C LIMATOLOGY V ARIABILITY E XTREMES C LIMATE C HANGE

29. C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean. 29 Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean. Existing Knowledge Base to underpin the provision of climate services – databases, theories, approaches, questions, limitations… Existing Knowledge Generation Capacity to build on in underpinning the provision of climate services – institutes, personnel… “It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

30. C ARIBBEAN C LIMATE R ESEARCH 30 Still many limitations… 1) Capacity – Technical and Human 2) Recognition versus support dilemma 3) Questions outpace capacity 4) Need to deliver the end before the beginning “It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

31. I NSTITUTIONS OF C LIMATE R ESEARCH UWI (CSGM and other Campuses, Departments and Institutes) CIMH INSMET 5 C’s Antom De Kom (University of Suriname) Meteorological Services Research arms or Regional and National Sectoral Institutions 31

32. 32 Thank You