2. Climate Services and Products in Belize at the National Level By Catherine Cumberbatch & Derrick Rudon October 30, 2013 Radisson Fort George

4. The National Meteorological Service of Belize is the leading governmental authority on weather, water and climate. It provides meteorological and climate- based products and services to the Belizean public through : systematic and accurate monitoring and data collection reliable data analyses timely dissemination of user-friendly information on regular and emergency events and processes. This is undertaken in order to contribute to the safety and well-being of the people of Belize and the sustainable development of the nation.

5. Meteorological Instruments Network

6. What are the Climate Service National Met Service of Belize issues the following services: 1. Short-term (3 hours up to 2 days) General or Public Forecast. Marine Forecast Aviation Forecast Fire Forecast Radar

7. Forecast products 24- 48 hours

10. Cont’d 2. Mid-term (4 days) weather forecasts Four day forecast Agro-meteorological Forecast Television Forecast

12. Climate Services Cont’d 3. Long-term (monthly) weather forecasts Monthly Agro-met Bulletin. Climate predictions for 3-months and seasons example - May-June-July (MJJ), August- September-October (ASO) Drought Monitoring

13. Climate Predictability Tool The Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) developed by the International Research Institute (IRI) Produces seasonal forecast for precipitation

14. Precipitation Outlook For October-December 2013

15. Precipitation Outlook for August to October 2013

17. The results of the Standard Precipitation Index calculations for a few stations across Belize. Oct-13 Seasonal Precipitation Forecast for OND Station1 Month3 Month6 Month12 MonthProbability Philip Goldson Airport0.2 - 2.910.68 - 3.061.25 - 3.020.28 - 2.0635 Above -0.49 - 0.20.25 - 0.680.96 - 1.250.01 - 0.2835 Normal -1.8 - -0.49-0.34 - 0.250.58 - 0.96-0.34 – 0.5830 Below Central Farm0.91 - 1.961- 1.510.77 – 1.110.09 – 0.3535 Above 0.48 - 0.910.83 – 1.00.66 – 0.770.01 - 0.0935 Normal -1.06 – 0.480.45 – 0.830.44 – 0.66-0.16 – 0.0130 Below Melinda0.49 – 2.230.86 – 2.220.55 – 1.620.51 – 1.3935 Above -0.38 – 0.490.34 – 0.860.17 – 0.550.22 – 0.5135 Normal -2.24 - -0.38-0.35 – 0.34-0.3 – 0.17-0.15 – 0.2230 Below TowerHill0.41 – 2.581.58 – 3.130.99 – 2.40.39 – 1.6535 Above -0.16 – 0.411.27 – 1.580.74 – 0.990.18 – 0.3935 Normal -2.88 - -0.160.45 – 1.270.09 – 0.74-0.35 – 0.1830 Below Nov-13 Station1 Month3 Month6 Month12 MonthProbability Philip Goldson Airport0.65 – 1.810.25 – 3.321.31 – 3.450.79 – 2.0635 Above 0.05 – 0.65-0.65 – 0.250.78 – 1.310.31 – 0.7935 Normal -2.89 – 0.05-2.48 - -0.65-0.19 – 0.78-0.53 – 0.3130 Below Central Farm0.72 – 2.091.05 – 2.190.94 – 1.620.25 – 0.7835 Above 0.48-0.720.76 – 1.050.79 – 0.940.14 – 0.2535 Normal -1.47 – 0.48-0.36 – 0.760.31 – 0.79-0.21 – 0.1430 Below Melinda0.52 – 1.750.78 – 2.790.9 – 2.340.53 – 1.8735 Above -0.22 – 0.52-0.19 – 0.780.3 – 0.90 – 0.5335 Normal -3.62 - -0.22-1.98 - -0.19-0.69 – 0.3-0.84 – 030 Below TowerHill0.69 – 1.670.95 – 3.161.39 – 3.280.75 – 2.3535 Above 0 – 0.690.23 – 0.950.84 – 1.390.32 – 0.7535 Normal -2.66 - 0-1.64 – 0.23-0.45 – 0.84-0.64 – 0.3230 Below

18. Climate Services Cont’d Climatological norms Graphical analysis Predictive trends (temperature and rainfall) Summaries (rainfall, temperatures etc) Astronomical Products Hurricane Reports Data Request

19. Climatological Information

21. TRENDS Time series plots are made by using historical data from our network of stations. From these plots linear trend and 5-year moving averages can be determined

23. Ways to disseminate information Public Media Monthly Bulletins Monthly Weather Forecasts Seasonal Forecasts Siren Systems Radio and TV Broadcasts Internet (www.hydromet.gov.bz)

24. Demands for climate service are huge and we at the Met Service continue to do our utmost best to provide the service in order to contribute to the safety and well-being of the people of Belize and the sustainable development of the nation. Threat of Climate Change demands a lot from the National Meteorological Service.

25. There are many Challenges we face in our day to day work. Example we lack the expertise in Climatology and Agro-meteorology. We have limited staff. But with all our shortcomings we continue to strive towards Excellence. We often looked to the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology for their Guidance and Assistance, which I must say they have being extremely helpful.

26. We all have heard and see most of the services and products that we have and that can be provided by the National Meteorological Service, it’s up to you to tell us how these services can help each of you in your specific field and quest. Or tell us of other services or products that you think we can provide to you that would be beneficial.