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RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC.

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Presentation on theme: "RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC."— Presentation transcript:

1 RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC

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3 NATIONAL GDP GROWTH

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6 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES

7 NEGATIVE EQUITY MORTGAGES SOURCE: First American CoreLogic, August 2009

8 RESIDENTIAL LOAN BALANCES THAT WILL EXPERIENCE PAYSHOCK

9 HOME PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: Case-Schiller

10 National-Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

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12 Area 147 …LO/WL Average Sales Price

13 Area 151 …Wilsonville Average Sales Price

14 COMMERCIAL PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: MIT

15 NATIONAL HOME SALES TRENDS SOURCE: NAR

16 FINANCING FOR HOMEBUYERS OCTOBER 2009 SOURCE: Campbell Communications

17 YEAR OVER YEAR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Portland Metro Area SOURCE: OLMIS

18 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR – Portland Metro Area Sep-08-Sep-09 SOURCE: OLMIS

19 EXPANDING AND DECLINING INDUSTRY SECTORS - OREGON SOURCE: OLMIS

20 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Baseline and with Discouraged SOURCE: BLS

21 NET CHANGE IN POPULATION PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management

22 POPULATION BY COUNTY Last Ten Years SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management

23 RESIDENTIAL PERMIT TRENDS

24 HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau

25 CMA – Vacancy

26 RENTAL VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau

27 ECONOMIC/DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY CONFIDENCE LOW –High Unemployment –Significant Percentage of Negative Equity BANKS WILL REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE –Residential Bust Followed by Commercial Bust –Foreclosures Likely to Continue LOCAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS NEGATIVE –Loss of 60,000 Jobs –Employment Back at 2005 Levels PRICING APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM –Lots of Residential Overhang Remains

28 OWNERSHIP RESIDENTIAL MARKET

29 CASE-SHILLER INDEX SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller, Seasonally Adjusted

30 PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS

31 HOUSING TRENDS

32 PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS

33 PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE FORECAST

34 STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHS PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

35 STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHS PORTLAND METRO AREA

36 RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

37 RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

38 NEW LISTINGS AND CLOSED SALES PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

39 UNIT INVENTORY BY GEOGRAPHY AND TYPE

40 RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY TRENDS

41 STANDING INVENTORY IN MONTHS

42 STANDING INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE – SEPT-09

43 STANDING INVENTORY BY PRICE AND COUNTY – SEPT-08

44 RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA

45 ESTIMATED INVENTORY OF LOTS IN MONTHS SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service

46 PENDING LOT INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA

47 MARKET CONCLUSIONS FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING –Standing Inventory at 6.5 Months –Very Low New Home Inventory THREATS REMAIN ON HORIZON –Pricing Stabilizing, but Foreclosures Coming –Unemployment Too High – Will Peak in 2010 PRICING POWER LIMITED –Shadow Inventory –Limited Confidence CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

48 MARKET CONCLUSIONS FIRST TIME TAX CREDIT –Less Effective over Time –May be Setting Up FHA for Crash CHANGE IN PRODUCT TYPE –First Time Homebuyer Target –Loss in Equity Will Impact Move-Up Markets METRO – URBAN GROWTH REPORT –Not Even Trying Anymore –Expect No New Residential Land

49 PRELIMINARY UGR RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY


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