Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byWeston Wimp Modified over 10 years ago
1
RECENT ECONOMIC AND RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS AND FORECAST PORTLAND METROPOLITAN AREA TICOR TITLE January 2010 Jerry Johnson Principal Johnson Reid, LLC
3
NATIONAL GDP GROWTH
6
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES
7
NEGATIVE EQUITY MORTGAGES SOURCE: First American CoreLogic, August 2009
8
RESIDENTIAL LOAN BALANCES THAT WILL EXPERIENCE PAYSHOCK
9
HOME PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: Case-Schiller
10
National-Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
12
Area 147 …LO/WL Average Sales Price
13
Area 151 …Wilsonville Average Sales Price
14
COMMERCIAL PRICING TRENDS SOURCE: MIT
15
NATIONAL HOME SALES TRENDS SOURCE: NAR
16
FINANCING FOR HOMEBUYERS OCTOBER 2009 SOURCE: Campbell Communications
17
YEAR OVER YEAR EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Portland Metro Area SOURCE: OLMIS
18
EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY SECTOR – Portland Metro Area Sep-08-Sep-09 SOURCE: OLMIS
19
EXPANDING AND DECLINING INDUSTRY SECTORS - OREGON SOURCE: OLMIS
20
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Baseline and with Discouraged SOURCE: BLS
21
NET CHANGE IN POPULATION PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management
22
POPULATION BY COUNTY Last Ten Years SOURCE: Portland State Pop Center and Washington Office of Financial Management
23
RESIDENTIAL PERMIT TRENDS
24
HOMEOWNER VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau
25
CMA – Vacancy
26
RENTAL VACANCY RATES – NATIONAL AVERAGE SOURCE: Census Bureau
27
ECONOMIC/DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY CONFIDENCE LOW –High Unemployment –Significant Percentage of Negative Equity BANKS WILL REMAIN ON DEFENSIVE –Residential Bust Followed by Commercial Bust –Foreclosures Likely to Continue LOCAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS NEGATIVE –Loss of 60,000 Jobs –Employment Back at 2005 Levels PRICING APPEARS TO HAVE FOUND A BOTTOM –Lots of Residential Overhang Remains
28
OWNERSHIP RESIDENTIAL MARKET
29
CASE-SHILLER INDEX SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller, Seasonally Adjusted
30
PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS
31
HOUSING TRENDS
32
PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE TRENDS
33
PORTLAND METRO AREA MEDIAN HOME PRICE FORECAST
34
STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHS PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
35
STANDING RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY IN MONTHS PORTLAND METRO AREA
36
RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
37
RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
38
NEW LISTINGS AND CLOSED SALES PORTLAND METRO AREA SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
39
UNIT INVENTORY BY GEOGRAPHY AND TYPE
40
RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY TRENDS
41
STANDING INVENTORY IN MONTHS
42
STANDING INVENTORY BY PRICE RANGE – SEPT-09
43
STANDING INVENTORY BY PRICE AND COUNTY – SEPT-08
44
RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA
45
ESTIMATED INVENTORY OF LOTS IN MONTHS SOURCE: Realtors Multiple Listing Service
46
PENDING LOT INVENTORY PORTLAND METRO AREA
47
MARKET CONCLUSIONS FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING –Standing Inventory at 6.5 Months –Very Low New Home Inventory THREATS REMAIN ON HORIZON –Pricing Stabilizing, but Foreclosures Coming –Unemployment Too High – Will Peak in 2010 PRICING POWER LIMITED –Shadow Inventory –Limited Confidence CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
48
MARKET CONCLUSIONS FIRST TIME TAX CREDIT –Less Effective over Time –May be Setting Up FHA for Crash CHANGE IN PRODUCT TYPE –First Time Homebuyer Target –Loss in Equity Will Impact Move-Up Markets METRO – URBAN GROWTH REPORT –Not Even Trying Anymore –Expect No New Residential Land
49
PRELIMINARY UGR RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY
Similar presentations
© 2024 SlidePlayer.com Inc.
All rights reserved.