Presentation on theme: "How do you play weak & strong draws? Strategy: No Limit."— Presentation transcript:
How do you play weak & strong draws? Strategy: No Limit
Weak open ended straight draws: An OESD where you have an idiot end only gives you 4 outs to the nuts. If the flop is 2 suited, your outs are even worse. Weak flush draws: If you have neither a nut flush draw, nor a 2 nd or 3 rd nut flush draw, you could be drawing dead. Gutshots: The advantage of a gutshot is that your opponents will sometimes overlook it, because the odds are partially hidden. However, you only have four outs. What is a weak draw?
Non-nut draws with a hole card: These draws are obvious and are not yet the nut draws. If you get action, you are often beat by one card draws. Backdoor draws: Backdoor draws are hard to read for your opponents, but are also rarely completed. But if you hit, you have very large implied odds. What is a weak draw?
One-card-draws: If you are using only one hole card, you often have very strong reverse implied odds. You are often dominated by the relative weakness of your hand. Weak flush draws & idiot end straight draws: These draws usually also have reverse implied odds, but not as high as one card draws. You always have the risk of being dominated. Gutshots & backdoor draws: You have the largest implied odds with these draws, because your opponents rarely think you are holding this hand. The weakest hands win the largest pots. Implied and reverse implied odds with weak draws
Weak draws in multiway pots – example 1 CO$ 50 Hero (BU)$130 SB$ 80 BB $110 Preflop: 2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises to $4, SB calls, BB calls, CO calls. Flop: ($ 16) SB bets $8, BB calls, CO calls, Hero? 4 outs to the nut straight= odds 10.75:1 Pot odds on the flop = 5:1 EV (Call): P (Queen on the turn) * EV (Pot with implied odds) – P (No queen on the turn) * EV (Investment) = (0.085*90) - (0.915*8) = 0.33 Implied odds: (Pot on the flop + Villain bet + expected profit if hit) / (Villain bet) : 1 = (16 + 24 + 50) / 80:1 = 11.25:1
Weak draws in multiway pots – example 2 Hero (BU)$65,36 BB$55,35 UTG $60,85 Preflop: UTG raises to $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $3,50, BB calls $3. Flop: ($ 12) Hero checks, BB bets $5, UTG calls, Hero? 11 outs (9 flush + 2 set) = odds 3.5:1 Pot odds on the flop = 4.4:1 Three reasons to fold: 1.An opponent could have a better heart card. 2.You are out of position. 3.You are playing with reverse implied odds.
Weak draws are to be played depending on your opponent. You hardly have any fold equity against a calling station, therefore, you must react very carefully with weak draws. It is easier against rocks, TAGs or semi-LAGs, because they are capable of folding average hands as well. You should almost always make a continuation bet as a preflop aggressor. You should not be too passive – particularly out of position. Weak draws in a heads up pot
Sometimes you can play a weak draw with creativity. Never disregard the calculation of implied odds. The weak-passive technique is the best concept for multiway pots. In a heads up pot, a continuation bet is usually the best method. In a heads-up pot, independent of your implied odds, there are also options for floating or delayed bluff raises. (see article NL Gold How to play weak draws) Summary– weak draws
The implied odds differ upon the draw. A straight draw seems less dangerous for an opponent than a flush draw. The implied odds vary according to opponents. An opponent with a high went to showdown (WTSD) value will pay you off if you complete your draw. The implied odds depend on the board. If there is both a straight draw and a flush draw on the flop, your implied odds decrease, because the danger is obvious for your opponent. Implied odds – strong draws
Equity adjustment with a strong draw Your hand Opponents hand Flop Equities on the flop Turn Equities on the turn Relative loss of equity 36.46 : 63.5420.45 : 79.5543.9% 32.83 : 67.1718.18 : 81.8244.6% 53.32 : 46.6834.10 : 65.9036.1%
What are some reasons to fold? You are not getting enough implied odds and a semi-bluff is out of the question. You are probably drawing dead. Your draw is potentially dominated. What are some reasons to call? The fold equity is not adequate for a semi-bluff, but the implied odds are good enough. It is highly probable that your semi-bluff will be raised. What are some reasons to bet or raise (semi-bluff)? You have a very high fold equity and the pot is already a good size. You have a lot of outs and you have a good equity against made hands. You are in position and your opponent likes to give out free cards on the turn. Your opponent frequently overplays his one pair hands. Bet/raise, call or fold?
Empirical basic rules: A minimum raise produces only a low amount of fold equity. A pot size bet offers a good price-performance ratio. An overbet often creates more fold equity than the pot size bet, but can very quickly become very expensive in comparison. The fold equity created does not increase linearly with the bet size. How big should a semi-bluff be?
You are out of position: It is hard to get value out of your opponents if you complete your draw. It is often expensive to see the next card. You are in position: Semi-bluffs often provide for success. You can have a free card more frequently. You can also steal the pot with busted draws thanks to your information advantage. If you hit your draw, you can get the maximum value out of your opponents. Techniques
Strong draws – OOP in a raised pot without initiative Hero (BB)$240 CO$300 Preflop: 2 folds, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $8. Flop: ($ 25) Hero checks, CO bets $20, Hero raises to $60, Villain raises to $180 Hand range Villain: 1.Overpair 2.Two Pair 3.Completed straight 4.Strong draw Scenario #1 Your equity against: 1.Overpair(53% without AA) 2.Two Pair(40%) 3.Completed straight (40%) 4.Set(33%)
Strong draws – OOP in a raised pot without initiative Hero (BB)$240 CO$300 Preflop: 2 folds, CO raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $8. Flop: ($ 25) Hero bets $20, CO raises to $65, Hero raises All-In $228 Reasons for a raise from Villain : 1.Villain has a strong made hand that he is protecting. 2.He is protecting a weak to average made hand. 3.He has a draw (semi-bluff). 4.Villain is making a bluff raise. Scenario#2 Your equity against: 1.Set(33%) 2.Straight(40%) 3.Two pair(40%) 4.Over pair(53% without AA) 5.Top pair (53% with A kicker) 6.Pair (60% without A kicker) Pfold: The probability that Villain folds. Pot: The pot before your all-in push. Stack: The smaller stack (from you or Villain). Dead money: Money that is already in the pot through opponents who have folded. Costs: Costs of the semi-bluff. Profit: Pfold * Pot + (Stack + Dead money + Stack - costs) * Equity * (1 - Pfold) Loss: Costs* (1-Equity) * (1 - Pfold) Total profit: Profit - lost Pot = $110 Stack = $240 Dead money = $1 (only the SB) Costs= $208 Equity = 0,4 Example 1: Fold equity = 0% Total profit= $109,2 - $124,8= $-15,6 Example 2: Fold equity = 25% Total profit= $109.4 - $93.6 = $15.8 Example 3: Folded equity = 50% Total profit= $109.6 - $62.4= $47.2 Example 4: Fold equity = 100% Total profit= $110 - $0 = $110
Strong draws – IP in an unraised pot Hero (CO)$200 BB$420 UTG$150 Preflop: UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB checks. Flop: ($ 7) BB bets $5, UTG raises to $15, Hero calls $15. Scenario #1 Your equity against: 1.Set(42%) 2.Two Pair(50%) 3.Pair(55%) 4.Random(66%) Reasons for a call instead of a raise: 1.Two opponents show strength in an unraised pot. 2.Only better hands will call you with a push. 3.A raise gives the opponent the chance to push all-in. 4.If you call and the BB reraises, you could make the push. 5.Your position promises a lot of value if you hit and not a lot of costs for the next card if you dont.
Strong draws – IP in an unraised pot Hero (CO)$200 BB$420 UTG$150 Preflop: UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB checks. Flop: ($ 7) BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $6, BB folds, UTG calls $6. Scenario #2 Reasons for a semi-bluff bet on the flop: 1.Normally nobody has hit the flop in an unraised pot if everybody checks. 2.You probably have more than 50% equity. 3.The larger the pot is on the turn, the larger your value bets can be. Turn: ($ 19) BB checks, Hero bets $15. Your equity against: 1.Set(30%) 2.Two pair(32%) 3.Pair(between 32% & 55%) Reasons for a semi-bluff bet on the turn: 1.Villain is playing as if he had a weak hand or a draw. 2.Pot building for a larger value bet in case your draw comes on the river.