1. Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

2. Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM Brussels workshop

3. ROADiBROM is a joint European – China strategic roadmap about Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence The objective is to: develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China. Intended Outcome: Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence (NEM International Cooperation) Funded by European Commission (IST-045437: ROADIBROM – SSA) Background of Roadibrom

4. A balanced EU-China Project Consortium

5. Why digital convergence? Media convergence – Video – Voice – Data Device convergence: – Computer – TV – Mobile Phone Technology Push: Business & Societal Impact: Changes of Individual living Emerging business models Impact on society Investigating: What will the converged world looks like? What are the critical choices we confront with? How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?

6. China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries, e.g. 3G, Wireless Communication, and Mobile digital broadcasting etc. China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcasting China verified as a big market for the mobile phone (480 Million users 2006) The metropolian cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing) are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services. Why China? Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW

7. Media Industry at the verge of disruptive change?! Will it happen or not? How will it happen? What will come out? (Moore 1991)

8. Disruptive Innovation implies change of institutions, firms, industries… Time Rate of Innovation Process Innovation Product Innovation Fluid Pattern Transitional Pattern Specific Pattern Dominant Design THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN Industry level change 20152007 Technology (Product) Innovation DECREASE, Business and institutional Change just START! How specific patterns look like? How they are developed?

9. Governments: Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovation Companies: Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions entrants will emerge What does it imply for Governments and industries Signs: Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business Nokia is becoming a media company Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though not produce any content itself

10. Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation Scenario -Make expectations (hopes and fears) explicit -Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios -Analyze implications Identify gap between state-of-art and the specific Pattern Time order Gaps (and R&D actions) = roadmap The specific Pattern

11. Relevant dimensions of transformation Customer 1. Service 2. Devices 4. Value Chains 3. Technology Barriers 5. Regulatory Framework & Policies Changes 6. Disruptive Scenarios

12. 1.Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders 2.Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues (transformation process) Workshop Objective

13. Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM Brussels workshop

14. Technology view: Seamless network(s) converge voice, video and data in an invisible way for users, who will be able to access services anywhere and anyhow. User view: Communities of users supported by community coaches will become most active in user centric service offerings with renowned brands, Future Media Industry Scenario

15. Device view: Ambient and context sensitive (sensor) will make devices disappear towards wearable /mobile miniature. Value Chain View: Network / Telecom operators offer infrastructure, Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches, Content production cost will disappear with crowd sourcing and therefore DRM will vanish. Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications, which will fund communities and dedicated professional content production Future Media Industry Scenario

16. Early Examples of of a digital converged world Execution Saddam Hussein Technology: -Filmed with mobile phone -Distributed within hours by YouTube Industry Change: -Production cost Zero -Distributions cost Zero -No journalist involved: freedom of interpretation / uncontrollable -No broadcasting stations

17. Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure the ROADiBROM Brussels workshop

18. European Commission is promoting DVH-H standard in Europe… Several pilot projects using DVB-H standard have been and plan to run in Europe: Finland Italy UK Germany Austria France … The status of European development of Mobile digital broadcasting

19. The Brussels workshop on 11 th Oct 35 participants from 10 Countries: Broadcasters, Telecom operators, consumer elecontronics, researchers and consultants etc.

20. Discussion results of ´Service and Value Chain Context of (future) use Everybody is a journalist Privacy Quality of Service & ease of use Value Chains Business models for infrastructure Revenue models for the media industry Power of brands

21. The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities European workshopsChina Workshops 11th Oct 2007, Brussels: Technology and Devices Service and Value Chain 2nd and 3rd Nov 2007, Shanghai Technology and Devices Service and Value Chain 30th Jan 2008, Amsterdam Policy and regulation Service and Value Chain 6th and 7th Dec 2007, Beijing Policy and regulation Service and Value Chain 18th March 2008, Hannover (TBC) Consolidation of results March 2008, Shanghai Consolidation of results www.ve-forum.org/digital convergence

22. ! Thank you!