1. 德国慕尼黑联邦国防大学、荷兰莱顿大学 CeTIM董事长
Prof. Dr. Bernhard Katzy holds a PhD in industrial management from the University of Technology (RWTH) Aachen in Germany and a second PhD (habilitation) in general management from University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. He is lecturing MBA and Executive MBA courses at leading European business schools, e.g. St. Gallen University, Rotterdam School of Management, European Business School and ESADE Barcelona. He is professor at the University BW Munich and at the University of Leiden. He is the founder of CeTIM – Center for Technology and Innovation Management, which is located at University Bw Munich and Leiden University School of Management. His research interest is about entrepreneurial management of fast growing high-tech firms and the emerging industrial structures for the information age.

2. Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015
移动与数字融合成长曲线2015
Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy, CeTIM Xiaofeng Ma, CeTIM
CeTIM.org

3. Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction
Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure
the ROADiBROM workshops

4. Background of Roadibrom
ROADiBROM is
a joint European – China strategic roadmap about
“Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence ”
The objective is to:
develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China.
Intended Outcome:
Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence
(NEM International Cooperation)
Funded by European Commission (IST : ROADIBROM – SSA)

5. A balanced EU-China Project Consortium

6. Why digital convergence?
Technology Push:
Media convergence
– Video – Voice – Data
Device convergence:
– Computer – TV – Mobile Phone
Investigating:
What will the converged world looks like?
What are the critical choices we confront with?
How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?
Business & Societal Impact:
Changes of Individual living
Emerging business models
Impact on society

7. Why China?
China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries,
e.g. 3G, Wireless Communication, and Mobile digital broadcasting etc.
China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcasting
China verified as a big market for the mobile phone (480 Million users 2006)
The metropolian cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing) are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services.
Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW

8. Media Industry at the verge of disruptive change?!
Will it happen or not?
How will it happen?
What will come out?
(Moore 1991)

9. Disruptive Innovation implies change of institutions, firms, industries…
THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN
Rate of
Innovation
Industry level change
Dominant
Design
Technology (Product) Innovation DECREASE,
Business and institutional Change just START!
Process
Innovation
Product
Innovation
2007
2015
Time
Fluid
Pattern
Transitional
Pattern
Specific
Pattern
How specific patterns look like?
How they are developed?
© CeTIM gGmbH

10. What does it imply for Governments and industries
Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovation
Companies:
Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions
entrants will emerge
Signs:
Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business
Nokia is becoming a media company
Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though
not produce any content itself

11. Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation
Scenario
Make expectations (hopes and fears) explicit
Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios
Analyze implications
Identify gap between state-of-art and the specific Pattern
The specific Pattern
Time order Gaps (and R&D actions) = roadmap
© CeTIM gGmbH

12. Relevant dimensions of transformation12

13. Workshop Objective
Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders
Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues (transformation process)

14. Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction
Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure
the ROADiBROM workshops

15. Future Media Industry Scenario
Technology view:
Seamless network(s) converge voice, video and data
in an invisible way for users, who will be able to
access services anywhere and anyhow.
User view:
Communities of users supported by
community coaches will become most active in
user centric service offerings with
renowned brands,

16. Future Media Industry Scenario
Device view:
Ambient and context sensitive (sensor) will make devices “disappear” towards wearable /mobile miniature.
Value Chain View:
Network / Telecom operators offer infrastructure,
Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches,
Content production cost will disappear with “crowd sourcing” and therefore DRM will vanish.
Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications, which
will fund communities and dedicated professional content production

17. Early Examples of of a digital converged world
Technology:
Filmed with mobile phone
Distributed within hours by YouTube
Execution Saddam Hussein
Industry Change:
Production cost “Zero”
Distributions cost “Zero”
No journalist involved: freedom of interpretation / uncontrollable
No broadcasting stations
© CeTIM gGmbH

18. Presentation Outline ROADiBROM introduction
Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure
the ROADiBROM workshops

19. The Brussels workshop on 11th Oct
35 participants from 10 Countries, discussed the critical challenges:
Technology and Device
Value Chain and Service

20. The Shanghai workshop on 2nd and 3rd Nov
70 participants, discussing the critical challenges from
Technology and device
Service and Value Chain

21. The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities
European workshops
China Workshops
11th Oct 2007, Brussels:
Technology and Devices
Service and Value Chain
2nd and 3rd Nov 2007, Shanghai
6th March 2008, Amsterdam
Policy and regulation
6th and 7th Dec 2007, Beijing
March 2008, Munich
Consolidation of results
Early April 2008, Shanghai
convergence

22. 谢谢!
Thank you!