1. Moving the Masses: The Economic Impact of Migration

2. Immigration in Context “I believe immigration is the domestic social issue of our time – and a key to our future economic health.” - Carlos M. Gutierrez, Secretary of Commerce Testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee “Historically, immigrant workers played a major role in building the strongest economy and the most vibrant democracy in the world. And immigrant workers played an even more important part in creating a strong union movement that lifted millions of families into the biggest middle class in history.” -John J Sweeney, President, AFL-CIO 10th Annual David N. Dinkins Leadership & Public Policy Forum

3. Who and What are We talking About? Policy Insight recognizes three different types of migrants: –Economic Migrants –Retired Migrants –International Migrants.

4. Who and What are We talking About? (2) In addition to migrants there are several other special types of populations –Active Military –College Students –Prisoners

5. Points to Remember When Modeling Population Change Migration is cumulative. Migrants added in a given year are then added into the general population in the subsequent year. When adding economic migrants exogenously, make sure the new economic migrants do not end up leaving in the next year. Choose policy variables based on economic behavior, not labels. International graduate students generally earn and spend like domestic students, despite nominally being international migrants.

6. Scenario 1: Retiree Migration Suppose that the Triangle region of North Carolina is written up in a national retiree magazine. The article sings the area’s praises, making it seem so attractive that 10,000 more retirees are expected to flock there in 2008-2018.

7. Scenario 2: Student Influx A billionaire alum of UNC Chapel Hill has just passed away and left a large sum of money to the school. University officials estimate that with the gift they can increase capacity by 5,000 students.

8. Scenario 3: International Migrants Assume that there is some sort of natural disaster or serious political upheaval in South Asia. As a result, refugees are granted asylum by the US. Of these refugees admitted to the US 2,000 settle in the metro Wilmington area for 3 years (the duration of the disruption).

9. Other Considerations Things that may not be covered by simply changing the migrant numbers Induced productivity changes within the economy Atypical use of public services/security spending Is there an irregular demand/consumption effect? Remittances Effect of laws surrounding certain visa classes (e.g. H1-B, TN)

10. In the Next Session… Session 3: Priming the Pump: Government Stimulus Policies Discussion of Policy Insight’s capabilities in the areas of government revenues and expenditures An example of how to model a government fiscal stimulus package