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NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)

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Presentation on theme: "NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M)"— Presentation transcript:

1 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF HOME BUILDERS 2012 Single Family Starts = 535,000 Up 24% from 2011 This represents 44% of what would be considered normal (1.2170M) Forecast 2013 = 650,000 SF + 22% Forecast 2014 = 845,000 SF + 30%

2 CORE LOGIC IN 2012: Total Homes Sales Increased 6% Non-Distressed Home Sales Increased 11% REO Sales Declined 20% (3 rd consecutive decline) Serious Delinquencies Dropped 7.4% 6.9% Core Logic Home Price Index (based on repeat sales) Increased 6.3% (largest since 2006)

3 GLAR MLS 2012 Existing Home Sales Have Posted Six Consecutive Quarters of Sales Growth (starting in Q3 2011) Houses Sold on MLS 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 12 vs.11 15,181 14,748 11,369 11,648 11,442 10,974 12,724 +15.9% Median Sales Price 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 12 vs.11 138.5 139.0 134.9 132.0 138.0 134.1 140.0 +4.3% Average and Cumulative Day on Market Both Down in 12 vs. 11

4 PERCENT CHANGE IN HOUSE PRICES/MSA National MSA Rank 1-yr Qtr. 5-yr Birmingham, AL 222 -1.3% -0.2 -8.8% Charlotte, NC 201 -0.8% 0.4 -12.9% Cincinnati, OH 213 -1.0% -0.5 -8.3% Cleveland, OH 265 -2.2% - -13.3% Columbus, OH 186 -0.3% -0.3 -6.9% Dayton, OH 212 -1.0% 0.1 -9.9% Houston, TX 30 3.4% 0.9 5.5% Indianapolis, IN 149 0.3% 0.2 -3.9% Knoxville, TN 156 0.1% 0.6 -5.5% Memphis, TN 206 -1.0% -0.1 -12.1% Louisville, KY133 0.6% 0.4 -2.8% Oklahoma City 64 2.0% 0.7 2.2% Portland, OR 66 2.0% 1.8 -21.0% Raleigh, NC181 -0.2% - -6.6% Richmond, VA230 -1.5% - -18.1% Seattle, WA 63 2.0% 1.4 -23.1% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

5 TOP 20 MSA LARGEST 5-YEAR PERCENT LOSS IN HOME PRICES Las Vegas, NV-54.3% Vallejo, CA-45.6% Stockton, CA-44.9% Daytona Beach, FL-44.3% Reno, NV-44.0% Orlando, FL-42.8% Ocala, FL-42.7% Salvias, CA-41.7% Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL-41.6% Riverside – San Bernadine, CA-41.3% Port St. Lucie, FL-40.9% Yuba City, CA-40.7% Naples – Marco Island, FL-40.1% Visalia, CA-39.8% Ft. Lauderdale, FL-39.0% Palm Bay – Melbourne, FL-38.8% Fresno, CA-38.5% Phoenix, AZ-38.4% Bradenton – Sarasota, FL-38.0% West Palm Beach, FL-37.8% Cape Coral – Ft. Myers, FL-37.8% Louisville, KY-2.8% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

6 Residential Building Permits 2012 2012201112 vs 11 Jefferson1003671+49.4 Oldham 156112 39.3 Shelby 136 73 86.3 Spencer 47 46 2.2 37.1 Bullitt 292213 37.1 1634 1115+46.5% Clark 349227+53.7 Floyd 169 98 72.4 Harrison 96 64 50.0 614389+57.8% 8-County Total 2,248 1504+49.5% Note: Nelson 114122 -6.6% Hardin 254210 +21% Source: The Market Edge

7 Residential Building Permit 2012 Market Comparison %CHANGE MARKET 2012 vs. 2011 LouisvilleKY42.5% LexingtonKY33.1% EvansvilleIN24.3% AshevilleNC21.5% CharlotteNC30.4% FayettevilleNC------- HickoryNC12.3% TriadNC 3.2% RaleighNC31.8% UpstateNC32.1% ChattanoogaTN27.7% KnoxvilleTN23.9% Tri-CitiesTN -4.5% Source: The Market Edge

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10 Improving Markets Index 1212 2323 30 41 76 98 9 101 100 80 84 80 99 103 125 201 242 259

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15 Permits 4225 4790 5015 5137 4348 5294 3749 3297

16 Permits 4225 4790 5015 5137 4348 5294 3749 3297

17 Source: local government permitting departments J11J111 F MAMJJASONDJ 12 FMAMJJASONDJ 13 F -27.7% -18% -11.7% -22.5% -2.4% 59.6% 34.2% 13.2% -1.2% 97.5% 49.5% 48.8% 29.9% 38.6% 52.6%

18 NAHB E-BOOK/SURVEY RESULTS WHAT HOME BUYERS REALLY WANT The lot size is not a factor for 25% of buyers 47% want three bedrooms 32% want four bedrooms 57% of home buyers prefer a single-story home 31% prefer two stories Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

19 60 % of buyers want a full or partial basement 48% want the Master Bedroom on the 2 nd floor 70% prefer the Washer & Dryer on the 1 st floor Buyers focus on Quality & Appearance where looking at home components such as flooring, doors, kitchen countertops, cabinets, etc. while… When looking at appliances, the focus is on Quality & Brand Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

20 In the Kitchen: A walk-in pantry, table space for eating and a double sink are considered essential/desirable by 84% of buyers In the Bathroom: An exhaust fan, linen closet and both a shower stall and tub in Master bath are essential/desirable to 80% of buyers Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

21 When Rating Windows: 67% want energy star rated windows, triple pane insulating glass and low-e insulating glass Decorative Features: 88% Want ceiling fans 60% Want built-in shelving and ceiling crown molding Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

22 Laundry Room: 57% Buyers find it essential and would not buy a home without it 36% Find it desirable Garage Storage: 32% Rate it essential 54% Desirable Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

23 The Three Most Wanted Outdoor Features: 90% Exterior lighting essential/desirable 83% Patio 80% Front porch Master Bath Location: 45% Essential 36% Desirable Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

24 62% Would choose a smaller home with higher quality products and amenities than a larger home with fewer amenities 73% Agree that the projected utility costs of a home would influence their decision today 71% Would prefer to buy a home from a builder that provides home energy ratings Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

25 Location of choice for new home buyers: Central City – 8 % Close-in Suburbs – 30% Outlying Suburb – 38% Rural Area – 27 % and small towns Community features to seriously influence the buying decision: Walking/Jogging Trails – 60% Park Area- 54% Outdoor Swimming Pool – 50% Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

26 70% of home buyers see value in professional designations for building/remodeling contractors More Professional & Credible Provide better quality work and craftmanship Provide better service levels More Reliable Top Two Reasons for Selecting a Contractor: 1.Reputation for quality construction 2.Reputation for completing projects on budget Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

27 Type of Home Preferred (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

28 Features Most Wanted by Home Buyers (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group 31% 54% 36% 49% 32%54% 48% 40% 35%54% 39% 51% 41% 49% 53%37% 28%63% 57%36% 58%

29 Outdoor Features Rated Essential or Desirable (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group 6% 27% 6% 31% 21% 39% 17% 45% 21% 51% 22%55% 29%49% 26%54% 27% 56% 41%49%

30 Accessibility Features Rated Essential or Desirable (Percent of Respondents) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

31 200420072012 A full bath on the main level 757481 Non-slip floor surfaces 625363 An entrance without steps 423850 Bathroom aids, such as grab bars or seating in shower 403546 Accessibility Features - History (Percent of Respondents Rating Essential of Desirable in 2012 and Important to Very Important in 2004 and 2007 ) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

32 Share of Buyers Willing to Buy Home W/out a Living Room by Division (Percent of Respondents ) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

33 Amenities that Would Seriously Influence Buyers to Choose a Community (Percent of Respondents ) Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group

34 200420072012 Walking/jogging trails514960 Park area524354 Outdoor swimming pool36 50 Lake323345 Exercise room302739 Convenience Storen/a2832 Drug Storen/a2832 Playgrounds262231 Public transportation342429 Clubhouse21 26 Security guard at gate301725 Card-operated gate, no guard161419 Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision - History (Percent of Respondents )

35 200420072012 Tennis courts10 17 Arts and Craftsn/a714 Basketball courts9813 Business center17813 Billiard room9612 Daycare center989 Baseball/ softball field869 Soccer field546 Racquetball courts436 Equestrian facilitiesn/a35 Other11136 Source: What Home Buyers Really Want, National Association of Home Builders NAHB Economics & Housing Policy Group Community Features that Influence Purchase Decision – History Cont. (Percent of Respondents )

36 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY

37 61%Choose larger lots and needing to drive, than 37% who choose to live on smaller lots within walking distance to schools, stores and restaurants 78% Americans consider being within 30-minutes of work important in choosing where to live. 88% Say the neighborhood where the house is located is a bigger consideration where to live than the size of the house. Important Choice Decisions 77%Sidewalks and places to take a walk 75%High quality public schools Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey

38 Importance of Community Characteristics

39 Preferred Versus Actual Community Type Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey 22% 16% 14% 18% 19% 12% 26% 28% 19% 11% 5% 8%

40 Preferred Versus Actual Housing Type Source: National Realtors Association 2011 Community Survey


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