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““Merger Mania” Will it affect your Airport? SEC/AAAE - 2010
David Hamm Director – Corporate Real Estate Delta Air Lines April 20,2010
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Delta and Northwest Created an effective global U.S. carrier with over 390 worldwide destinations #1 U.S. carrier to Europe and strong Latin American presence Domestic focus in East and Mountain West Member of SkyTeam alliance 3rd largest carrier in the U.S. with 13.2% of domestic ASMs 4th largest carrier in the world with 4.1% of worldwide ASMs Hubs in Atlanta, Cincinnati, New York City and Salt Lake City Focus cities in Boston, Los Angeles and Orlando Service to 212 domestic and 115 international destinations International focus on Asia and #1 U.S. carrier in U.S.-Japan market Domestic focus in Midwest Member of SkyTeam alliance 7th largest carrier in the U.S. with 7.3% of domestic ASMs 9th largest carrier in the world with 2.6% of worldwide ASMs Hubs in Detroit, Memphis, Minneapolis/St. Paul and Tokyo Focus cities in Indianapolis and Seattle Service to 200 domestic and 50 international destinations Source: Market share based on March 2008 OAG (week sample). Destinations served data based upon OAG Jan 2008 – Dec 2008 (excluding cancellations and including additions as of March 28, 2008)
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Regional strengths, but globally weak
Delta and Northwest Flying independently….. Transatlantic DL #1 Domestic DL #3 Japan NW #1 Transatlantic NW #5 Japan DL #5 Domestic NW #7 Asia NW #2 Africa DL #1 Asia DL #5 Latin America DL #2 Latin America NW #10 Regional strengths, but globally weak 2
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Leading presence across the globe
Delta and Northwest Flying together….. America’s Premier Global Airline Transatlantic #1 Domestic #1 Japan #1 Asia #1 Africa #1 Latin America #2 REVIEW SLIDE Australia #2 Leading presence across the globe 3
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Delta and Northwest International Networks are Highly Complementary
International ASM Breakdown by Region (% of airline’s total) Source: March 2008 OAG (week sample) 4 4
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U.S. airline industry will remain highly competitive post merger
Delta and Northwest Domestic Market is Highly Fragmented Domestic Passenger Share No airline currently has greater than 20% domestic passenger share Post merger, Southwest continues to have the highest domestic passenger share U.S. airline industry will remain highly competitive post merger Source: APGDat DB1A 3Q07 Domestic passenger share
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Delta and Northwest Domestic Strength and International Success
Northeast #1 Midwest #1 Rocky Mountain #2 West #3 Southeast #1 Southwest #5 Source: US DOT revenue 4Q ended 1Q08 6
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Customers benefit from increased choice and more efficient connections
Delta and Northwest Unique Regional Presence allowed for End-To-End Merger Northwest airports not served by Delta Delta airports not served by Northwest Customers benefit from increased choice and more efficient connections Source: OAG, Jan 2008 – Dec 2008 (excluding cancellations and including additions as of March 28, 2008)
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Delta and Northwest Domestic Networks are Highly Complementary
Domestic Passenger Breakdown by Region (% of airline’s total) Source: DOT O&D Survey, Twelve months ended 3Q07
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Delta and Northwest Diversity Among the Delta/Northwest Fleets Provides Flexibility /LR MD-88 A333 A332 /300 A320/319 DC-9
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Number of Aircraft by Average Seat Count (As of 12/31/2007)
Delta and Northwest Complementary Fleets allows Matching Capacity to Demand Number of Aircraft by Average Seat Count (As of 12/31/2007) <50 51-76 77-125 >325 Delta has no aircraft with more than 285 seats while Northwest has 37 Delta has no aircraft in the seat range while Northwest has 151 Source: SEC Filings and Ascend Aircraft Database
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Delta and Northwest Positioning Delta for Continued Success
Delta operating in over 390 airports worldwide Roughly 245 domestic and 145 international locations Delta rebranding completed in 76 stations where only Northwest operated Primarily located in the Midwest and Asia Airport consolidations in 170 locations where both Delta and Northwest operated were completed in January 2010 First airports were consolidated in March 2009 PHL was the last airport consolidated in January 2010 Critical to consolidate prior to February 1, 2010, date of last Northwest flights Over 160 airport gates and associated space were released during the process Rebranding in 150 Delta only airports with Air France and KLM signage was also completed Providing system wide signage consistency for SkyTeam 11
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Industry Perspective – the last few years.
Volatile fuel costs – although lower this year, still at historically high levels Industry seeing passenger declines in major airports for first time Shifting dynamics of airline model – repositioning to build on core strengths Worldwide recession and economic challenges unparalleled during our lifetime Airline Ratings continue to be below investment grade Consolidation – more to come?
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Average* U.S. Jet Fuel Price (¢/Gallon)
From 2002 to 2008, Price of Jet Fuel Rose Relentlessly Average U.S. Spot Price Surged 320% During That Six-Year Period 2000 to 2008: Up 230.7% 2002 to 2008: Up 320.3% Average* U.S. Jet Fuel Price (¢/Gallon) * Simple average of spot prices in New York Harbor, U.S. Gulf Coast and Los Angeles Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 13 13
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Demand for Domestic Air Travel Has Not Recovered Domestic Passenger Revenue as Share of U.S. GDP Continues to Stagnate “The events of 9/11 marked…a permanent decline in domestic airline demand. We estimate that the gap between pre-9/11 demand and the post-9/11 period demand resulted in $26bn in lost revenue in 2008 and $150bn in cumulative lost revenue over the last 7 years. For perspective, the cumulative loss in revenue is the equivalent of the industry having no domestic revenue in 2007 and 2008.” “9/11 Revenue Impact in Context,” Gary Chase, Barclays Capital (Feb. 10, 2009) Impact = $22B Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Transportation Statistics 14 14
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Domestic ASMs per 000 Dollars ($2000) of U.S. GDP
With Declining Portion of Economy Being Spent on Domestic Air Travel, Airlines Have Contracted Accordingly Domestic ASMs per 000 Dollars ($2000) of U.S. GDP Sources: ATA analysis of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Transportation Statistics 15 15
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Demand for Air Travel and Air Cargo Down Sharply in 2009
Year-Over-Year Change (%) Through March * Alaska, American, Continental, Delta, JetBlue, United and US Airways, as well as selected regional affiliates ** Alaska, American, Continental, Delta, FedEx, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Midwest, Southwest, United, UPS and US Airways 16 16
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U.S. Passenger Airline FTEs (000)
Economy Continues Heavy Toll on U.S. Airline Jobs FTEs Down 28% from May 2001 Peak (542K) to February 2009 (392K) ~151,000 FTEs U.S. Passenger Airline FTEs (000) Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 17 17
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S&P Corporate Credit Ratings
One U.S. Passenger Airline Has Investment Grade Credit No Passenger Airline in the World Enjoys an A-Minus or Better Rating U.S. airline Non-U.S. airline Investment Grade A- BBB- S&P Corporate Credit Ratings Speculative Source: Standard and Poor’s as of Apr. 16, 2009 18 18
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Immediate Challenges Loom Large
A healthy commercial aviation sector enables/fosters a thriving economy In large part, airlines’ post-2000 survival has come via contraction, with 152K fewer jobs and 8% less domestic seating capacity (through 2Q09) U.S. airlines incurred multibillion-dollar pretax losses in 2008 For 2009, lower fuel prices were offset by plummeting demand Demand for air travel and air cargo, especially time-sensitive shipments, is down sharply in all regions in which U.S. carriers operate Spending on air transport also down – permanently – as share of U.S. GDP To invest in people, planes and product, airlines require sustained profitability (pretax margin) – they need to earn their cost of capital Mergers may help facilitate continue contractions and allow carriers to cover their cost of capital 19
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