1. Game Theory Game 1 The P-beauty Contest

2. P-Beauty Contests 2

3. Levels of Rationality 3

4. Class Strategies 4

5. Levels of Rationality 5 Penn (Wharton) Students Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees US High School Students 2-3

6. Levels of Rationality 6 Penn (Wharton) Students Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees US High School Students UConn 2-3

7. Levels of Rationality 7 Penn (Wharton) Students Cal-Tech’s Board of Trustees US High School Students UConn 2-3 Cal-Tech undergrads 3

8. Results Average Number: 40.4 ¾ of Average: 30.3 8

9. Closest Sabrina (30) Matthew(32) Rodrigo(32)  Top ten between 24 and 38 9

10. Furthest One person picked 88 One person picked 77 One person picked 76 10

11. Furthest Mokarram picked 75 Alexandra picked 75 11

12. I’m Rational (But the Rest of You Aren’t) Tim picked 0 12

13. Predictability Winning number: 30.3 13

14. Predictability Winning number: 30.3 Other section: 30.4 14

15. Predictability Winning number: 30.3 Winning number 2019: 30.0 Winning number 2018: 29.8 Winning number 2016: 29.1 Winning number 2015: 29.5 Winning number 2013: 30.0 15

16. Summary Common knowledge is bunk Bounded rationality is not Must understand how far the reasoning of other players will go People generally think two to three steps ahead (The rule of three) Need to stay one step ahead Don’t be too clever 16