1. Caspian Energy - Quo Vadis. - The Role of Iran – Franz B
Caspian Energy - Quo Vadis ? - The Role of Iran – Franz B. Ehrhardt, President & Managing Director, Conoco EurAsia Inc.

2. Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved
Issues
Caspian Commercial Scenario
Caspian Political Scenario (short, medium, long term)
Iran - A Regional Economic Benchmark?
Crude
Natural Gas
Implications, Conclusions, Path Forward
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

3. Caspian Commercial Scenario
High Export Cost - Landlocked, Difficult Terrain, Political Complications, Long Distance to Market
Downward Revision of Reserves ?!
Less Crude, More Gas ?!
Surrounded by Low Cost Oil & Gas
Low Oil & Gas Price Impact - Delays?
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

4. Caspian Political Scenario (short, medium, long term)
Many Competing Political Agendas - Power Play
Unresolved Caspian Sea Border Dispute
Considerable Political Uncertainty, Instability, And Unrest
Ineffective But Complicating Unilateral Sanctions by the USA
Prevailing Politics Do Not Permit Most Viable Economic Solutions
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

5. Iran - A Regional Economic Benchmark?
Swap of Caspian Crude Cost Effective and Immediate
Congruency of Caspian Countries
Iran Implements Related Infrastructure Development
Turkmen Gas Trade Under Way, More Expected
Single Country Transit
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

6. IRAN - MEANS OF OIL TRANSPORTATION
ROAD 25%
RAIL 8%
PIPELINES 67%
TOTAL PIPELINE SYSTEM: 13,000 KM
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

7. CASPIAN (IRAN) TANKER ISSUES
Preliminary plans for commissioning tankers in the Caspian Sea with participation of shipbuilders and oil majors.
Options for Tankers from OCTOVO, TURKEMENBASHI, and BAKU to NEKA
Loading and lifting capacities for crude at the Persian Gulf Terminals.
Concerns for environmental protection in the Caspian Sea.
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

8. Conclusions, Implications
Iran Offers Economics That Have to Be Met by Competing Export Routes
Iran Will Extract What the Market Will Bear
Multiple Export Routes are Essential for Diversity and Economic Balance
The First Route, Usually, Will Be the Most Economic
How Much Crude, Actually, is There to Export?
Can the Prevailing Low Crude Prices Support Major Pipeline Projects?
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

9. Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved
Path Forward
Time To Be Pragmatic And Jointly Support The Long Term Competitiveness Of Caspian Energy
Encourage Broad Industry and Regional Government Cooperation To Develop The Lowest Cost Export Infrastructures
Prudently Balance Between Year Projects And Fluctuating Political Climates and Trends
Create Reasonable Flexibility To Ensure Security Of Sustained Economic Supply
Drop Unilateral Sanction And Initiate Accelerated Stepped Engagement With Iran
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

10. TURKMENISTAN NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION and EXPORT
TOTAL PRODUCTION 90 80 70 60 50
Bcm
Export (BCM) 40
Consumption (BCM) 30 20 10
1995
1998
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Years
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved

11. PAKISTAN NATURAL GAS SUPPLY - DEMAND (BCF)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
Bcf
2500
SHORTFALL
TOTAL SUPPLY
2000
1500
1000
500
1999
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Years
March 8, 2020
Copyright© 2005CASCA Consulting, L.L.C. All rights reserved