1. Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India
Palgrave Series in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy
Authors:
Prabhu Pingali
Anaka Aiyar
Mathew Abraham
Andaleeb Rahman
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2. Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India
Chapter 1. Indian Food Systems towards 2050: Challenges and Opportunities
Chapter 2. Economic Growth, Agriculture and Food Systems: Explaining Regional Diversity
Chapter 3. Rural Livelihood Challenges: Moving out of Agriculture
Chapter 4. Diet Diversity and the Declining Importance of Staple Grains
Chapter 5. The Nutrition Transformation: From Undernutrition to Obesity
Chapter 6. Reimagining Safety Net Programs
Chapter 7. Enabling Smallholder Prosperity through Commercialization and Diversification
Chapter 8. Linking Farms to Markets: Reducing Transaction Costs and Enhancing Bargaining Power
Chapter 9. Agricultural Technology for Increasing Competitiveness of Small Holders
Chapter 10. Managing Climate Change Risks in Food Systems
Chapter 11. The Way Forward: Food Systems for Enabling Rural Prosperity and Nutrition Security

3. Multisectoral Approach for Food System Transformation
This approach takes into account the need to increase rural prosperity, food production, nutrient availability, and urban food security. Linking the food systems development agenda to job creation and human capital investments will also be key to lower both regional and inter-personal inequality. Policy recommendations are oriented towards creating a robust food system and moving the country towards a nutrition secure future. (Chapter 11)

4. Divergence in growth at the state-level has led to different welfare and nutrition outcomes
State GDP per capita of different states in comparison to other developing regions
use for title of graph: state GDP per capita of different states in comparison to other developing regions ST
Regional growth policies – identify regional development challenges
Renew focus on key challenges – intra-household, gender, demography
Refocus agriculture towards demand opportunities
Redesign safety nets to address obesity & urbanization challenges
Prepare and promote strategies to alleviate climate change effects
Policies should be multi-sectoral and inter-disciplinary in approaches
2011 Per Capita PPP USD$
The sub-national growth story Because there are different growth stories, there are different outcomes in terms of nutrition, etc.
Differential Growth Stories at the State-level (GDP per capita) (2015) Indian states have grown differently

5. Key Takeaway: Subnational divergence in structural transformation
Sub National Structural Transformation in India ( )
Data: National Accounts Statistics, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 2

6. Initial investments in agricultural productivity growth kicked off different trajectories in economic growth
District-level rice yields 1966 to 2016
Data: ICRSIAT VDSA

7. New classification of sub-national regions
Lagging States
Low urbanization rates
Low GDP per capita
Low productive agriculture sector drives growth
Bihar, MP, UP, Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, J&K, North east states
Agriculture-led States
High GDP per capita
Share of agriculture is relatively high
Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh
Urbanizing States
High urbanization rates
Share of agriculture is reducing
Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana, Uttarakhand

8. Key Takeaway: Growing income and urbanization drives diet change
% of population living in urban areas
Share of expenditures on food, by rural and urban populations
Data: National Statistical Sample Organization, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 4
Data: Census 2011, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 3

9. …But, supply has not kept pace with rising demand for diverse foods.
Per-capita availability of grains and pulses (g)
Wholesale price index (WPI) by food group
While there is diet transition and rising demand, we don’t see rising supply.
Date: GOI, Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 4
Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 4

10. Key Takeaway: Commercialization and diversification are essential for income and supply
Changing demand has brought about opportunities for diversification and new markets
Opportunities have not translated into benefits due to smallholder inability to commercialize
Limited access to credit, inputs, technology and markets hinders diversification
Smallholder transaction costs make it difficult to access new value chains
Citation of photo source required
Source Justdial.com

11. Small farm aggregation models enable production diversity
Cooperatives and Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) offset scale disadvantages and improve access to inputs and markets
In agriculture-led states: focus on linkages to value chains and higher value agricultural products
In lagging states: focus on traditional constraints, like access to inputs, technology and markets
Shift from commodity based production to specialized / high value
Here’s ways one can promote better aggregation. = key message.
Challenges and solutions for aggregation models
Source:
Small farm aggregation models enable production diversity

12. Key Takeaway: Enhancing smallholder productivity and competitiveness requires moving beyond staple grain technologies
Yield trends in selected crops in India from to
Green Revolution 2.0 diversifies beyond staples and into lagging states
Breeding technology should improve yield, nutrition and resilience
ICTs and big data can transform food systems
Equitable access to technology
Improve yield, nutrition quality of crops and resilience in face of climate change

13. Key Takeaway: The nutrition transition from under-nutrition to obesity is happening now!
Percentage point change in malnutrition ( & )
Prevalence of triple burden of malnutrition in India ( )
Data: NFHS , Based on Authors Calculations
Data: NFHS & , Pingali et al 2019 Chapter 5

14. Structural transformation and the interstate and intrahousehold differences in malnutrition
Structural transformation and the changing malnutrition burden ( )
Prevalence of undernutrition in the household ( )
Data: NFHS , Pingali et al 2019, Chapter 5
Data: NFHS , Pingali & Aiyar 2019

15. Key Takeaway: Safety net programs need to evolve with growth and nutritional needs
Diversifying food-based programs away from an exclusive focus on staple grains
Delinking food-grain procurement and food-based safety nets
Looking beyond food-based safety nets
Photo: J. Ames © Tata-Cornell Institute

16. Key Takeaway: Refocusing public policy to transform the food system and tackle the triple burden of malnutrition
Program
Focus
Cash transfers / Health insurance / Other insurance
Transformational safety nets for vulnerable groups
Behavior change (nutrition, sanitation)
Public finance tools (taxes for unhealthy foods, food safety laws, food labeling)
Population-wide changes to nutrition behavior
Green Revolution 2.0
Increasing local production diversity
Boosting ST through non-farm sector
Urban labor markets, urban safety nets, supply chains
Program Focus
Cash Transfers / Health insurance / Other insurance
Transformational safety nets for Vulnerable groups
Behavior Change (nutrition, sanitation)
Public finance tools (taxes for unhealthy foods, food safety laws, food labeling)
Population wide changes to nutrition behavior
Green revolution 2.0
Increasing local production diversity
Boosting ST through Nonfarm sector
Urban labor markets, urban safety nets, supply chains

17. Key Takeaway: Climate change can have significant adverse impacts on rural welfare and nutrition
In agriculture-led states: increasing water scarcity threatens existing staple crop systems
In lagging states: non-staple crops that are important to the poor, such as millets & pulses, will be severely affected
Changing geographies for disease vectors will affect human and animal health – women and children disproportionately affected
Citation of photo source required
Source:

18. Technology+ approach
Region specific approaches for tackling climate change have been proposed in the energy sector, but not much implemented in the agriculture sector
National and state policies for climate change adaptation are yet to take shape
There has been very little private sector participation in these efforts, though consumer awareness is growing
Technology plus conservation plus community action
Data: MoEf 2009, Pingali et al 2019, Chapter 10

19. Concluding remarks: So what does this all mean?
Dealing with intra-country diversity in growth patterns
Managing India’s nutrition transition through food system diversity
Rising urban demand for diversity could lead to new opportunities for small farms
Diversifying the food system is constrained by staple grain focused policies and poor market infrastructure for non-staples
Delinking food grain procurement from safety net programs is crucial for enhancing food system diversity
Aggregating small farms into producer groups could help reduce transactions costs for accessing value chains
Mitigating climate impacts on nutrition-rich food crops important to the poor
Drawing inter-state and inter-country learnings from the India rural growth story

20. Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India
Palgrave Series in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy
Authors:
Prabhu Pingali
Anaka Aiyar
Mathew Abraham
Andaleeb Rahman
Download your free copy at: