1. Looking to the power system future An ENTSO-E perspective
ETIP SNET 21 March 2018, Brussels Norela Constantinescu, Team Lead R&I ENTSO- E

2. Summary TYNDP –looking to 2040 Flexibility needs
Innovation in the next future: Digitization and markets
Conclusion

3. Scenarios to 2040

4. From 2020 to 2040 and by 2040: elements
Scenarios
From 2020 to 2040 and by 2040: elements
Installed production capacity
Electricity demand
CBG – Coal before Gas
GBC – Gas before Coal
ST – Sustainable Transition
DG - Distributed Generation
GCA - Global Climate Action

5. TYNDP 2018 : looking to 2040
Centralised and decentralised coexist
RES –up to 70% of demand, developed in non coordinated manner with the network
Need for physical layer
Grid costs: 150 billion Euros in total (TYNDP2016): new investments needed after 2030
“No grid” in 2040 : extra bill by 2040: 43 billion Euros/year
threaten reliable access to electricity
156 TWh/year of RES wasted (annual consumption of BENELUX )
New needs in a new set-up
More frequency variation
Impact of inertia reduction especially on small systems
stability aspects
Observability and controllability of distributed resources and coordination between TSOs/DSOs

6. Flexibility needs Duration curves : Wind and Solar / Total generation
Magnitude of the hourly ramping
Lower inertia trend especially in the small synchronous area
Use of Interconnectors ( VSC and AC)
Batteries
Super capacitators

7. New digital technologies: new opportunities
Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies
Work in progress under the
RESEARCH AND
INNOVATION COMMITTEE, together with POYRI
Expected outcomes:
Digitalization common framework
R&D needs and roadmap
Opportunities
Impacts
Source: Gartner, 2017

8. TSOs face a multitude of challenges
THE ROLE OF TSO & THE CHALLENGES and opportunities Faced with Digitalization
The three high-level roles for TSOs enable the categorisation of the various challenges and opportunities
Volatile flows and usage of networks
Complex devices: FACTS, HVDC, cables, batteries
Dynamic interactions with other TSOs, DSOs, demand
Maximise assets rather than new build
Cost reduction in construction and maintenance
New materials and maintenance techniques
Provision of more information and CBAs
Programming, automation of critical situations
Technology testing and implementation
Information and Communication Technologies
Dynamic Line Rating
GIS, Google Maps, drones, sensors
Predictive methods, ANN, AI, more training
Automated analyses, visualisation tools
System Planning ►1 ►2
Complex short term demand forecasts
Asynchronous generation limits, more RT analysis, redispatching
Interaction TSOs (XB balancing), DSOs, DSM, aggregators
Pressure on costs, provision of more information and CBAs
Security, cybersecurity
New tools: demand sensitivity to prices, forecast and collection of more weather and market data
Sophisticated /probabilstic modelling tools, big data
Dynamic simulations in RT, faster state estimation
Adapt EMS, increased visibility of neighbour systems
Faster and complex constraints analyses, visualisation tools
Data security, encrypation, blockchains
System operation ►3
TSOs face a multitude of challenges ►4 ►5
Shorter gate closures, continuous trading
Increased intraday trading and information
New balancing products and providers
Enabling new players and technologies, consumer first
Capacity calculation and congestion management
Faster systems, Blockchains
Integration in AGC
Design and integration of Consumer information, Apps
Coordination schemes for congestion and balancing (processes, products, gate closure)
Market facilitation
►...
PÖYRY - #poyrydigital 8
FEBRUARY 2018

9. Conclusions
Architecture of the European power system is evolving : centralized and decentralized coexist
Network operators are key in facilitating transactions over the value chain
The “fourth industrial revolution” increases the interfaces: sectors need to couple across electricity, gas heating , transport and digital: system of systems
New hardware and software technologies are needed to enable interactions , particularly digitization and market design

10. New ENTSO-E START