1. Public Opinion Poll Voting Intensions And Political State Of Kenya
december 2012
PREPARED BY
Strategic Research Limited
Titan Plaza, Chaka Road, Nairobi, Kenya
P.O. Box Nairobi,
Tel: /3,
Updating The Past, Informing The Future

2. Contents Of The Report Public Opinion Poll Survey Introduction
Methodology
Demographics
Findings
Updating The Past, Informing The Future

3. Public Opinion Poll Methodology
Strategic Research Ltd. Conducted a country wide public opinion poll survey on socio- economic and political state of Kenya. A sample size of 1500 respondents was drawn and distributed across the 36 counties based on the respective population as per the Census.
The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size (PPS), adopting purposive, random and systematic sampling techniques. This ensured respondents aged 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. Specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya.
The data collection involved face-to-face interviewing of respondents at household level using a semi-structured questionnaire. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied through back checks and accompaniments.

4. Summary On Poll Methodology
Survey Area
Nation Wide
Sample size
1500
Sample distribution
Stratified Multi-stage Sampling (Using PPS)
Target Population
Respondents at Household level across 36 Counties
Instrument
Semi-structured questionnaires administered using face-to-face interviews
Sampling error
+/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level
Field Dates
December 17th – 19th 2012
Updating The Past, Informing The Future

5. Regions Covered Regions County Frequency % Central
Kiambu, Nyeri, Muranga, Kirinyaga
180
11.6
Coast
Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale,
144
9.3
Eastern
Meru, Machakos, Kitui, Embu,
188
12.1
Nairobi
149
9.6
North Eastern
Garissa, Mandera, Wajir
105
6.8
Nyanza
Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nyamira, Siaya
214
13.8
Rift Valley
Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho, Kajiado, Laikipia, Trans-Nzoia, Baringo, Narok; Elgeyo Marakwet, Marsabit, West Pokot,
345
22.3
Western
Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Busia
224
14.5
1549
100
Updating The Past, Informing The Future

6. Demographics Age N % Religion 18 - 24 310 19.4 Christian 1350 87.2
356 23
Muslim
174
11.2
283
18.3
Budhist/Hindu 1
0.1
209
13.5
Traditional 18
1.2
135
8.7
Others 6
0.4 89
5.7
Total
1549
100 94
6.1
Education 43
2.8
No formal education 60
3.9
60+ 38
2.5
Primary school
313
20.2
RTA
Secondary school
656
42.3
Post secondary school
362
23.4
Gender
University
149
9.6
Male
833
53.8 9
0.6
Female
716
46.2

7. Findings Updating The Past, Informing The Future

8. Have you registered to vote
Reasons for lack of registration %
Delaying of ID/Lack of ID
63.5
Lack of interest
13.5
Lack of time
Not worthy his/her time/time watsge
5.8
Sickness
3.8
Total
100.0
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
North Eastern
Rift Valley
Nyanza
Western
Total
Yes
97.3%
96.1%
89.6%
90.4%
96.2%
92.5%
95.3%
91.1%
93.3% No
2.7%
3.9%
10.4%
9.6%
3.8%
7.5%
4.7%
8.9%
6.7%
100.0%
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9. What is your biggest fear ahead of the next elections scheduled for March 2013
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
North Eastern
Rift Valley
Nyanza
Western
Violence
84.6%
59.4%
52.1%
39.9%
40.0%
53.6%
55.6%
51.8%
Increased insecurity
8.1%
23.3%
24.3%
33.0%
20.0%
15.7%
28.5%
11.6%
Poor registration of voters
2.7%
6.7%
6.9%
7.4%
3.8%
15.4%
8.9%
17.9%
No fear
5.6%
9.0%
3.7%
24.8%
10.4%
4.7%
12.5%
Rigging electiosn
2.0%
1.1%
1.4%
2.9%
.6%
.5%
1.8%
Tribalism/ethnicity
1.7%
.7%
4.8%
1.2%
1.3%
Unemployment
Voter education
2.1%
1.0%
.4%
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10. What do you see as the biggest challenge facing the country today that you would wish to be addressed
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
North Eastern
Rift Valley
Nyanza
Western
Insecurity
27.7%
32.2%
27.3%
28.2%
28.5%
50.9%
17.2%
Unemployment
25.7%
27.8%
25.9%
14.6%
24.4%
27.6%
25.3%
Economic development
11.5%
13.3%
8.4%
5.9%
3.9%
10.2%
3.3%
23.5%
Corruption
7.8%
11.7%
8.7%
7.3%
4.2%
12.7%
Ethnicity
12.8%
2.8%
4.9%
2.1%
18.4%
11.0%
3.7%
5.0%
Roads
9.0%
2.3%
1.4%
Education
2.7%
.5%
1.0%
3.2%
3.6%
Food security
2.2%
Health
2.0%
1.8%
Agriculture, Environmental conservation and Water
1.9%
2.9%
.9%
Constitutional implementation
.7%
1.5%
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11. Looking at the coalitions that have been formed, which coalition/candidate would you likely vote for if presidential elections were held today
Nairobi
Central
Coast
Eastern
North Eastern
Rift Valley
Nyanza
Western
40.9%
5.7%
66.4%
48.6%
58.0%
36.8%
83.1%
66.2%
49.0%
88.6%
19.5%
44.8%
33.0%
55.9%
15.0%
25.9%
5.4%
2.3%
3.1%
2.7%
8.0%
4.1%
1.4%
.5%
.7%
3.9%
1.8%
6.0%
2.0%
1.7%
5.5%
3.3%
.9%
1.3%
1.0%
.6%
1.6%
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12. Who is your preferred presidential candidate for the coalition you have mentioned
CORD – (Raila/ Kalonzo/ Wetangula)
Jubilee – (Uhuru/ Ruto/ Mudavadi/ Ngilu)
Pambazuka – (Wamalwa/ Biwott/
Jirongo)
Tunawesmake – (Kenneth/
Tuju)
Martha Karua
Ole Kiyapi
Raila Odinga
92.8%
Uhuru Kenyatta
71.9%
William Ruto
4.3%
100.0%
Peter Kenneth
78.7%
Kalonzo Musyoka
6.2%
Raphael Tuju
8.5%
Musalia Mudavadi
18.4%
Eugene Wamalwa
52.0%
Charity Ngilu
1.1%
Nicholas Biwott
12.0%
Dont know/undecided
4.2%
36.0%
12.8%
Total
Updating The Past, Informing The Future

13. If your preferred presidential candidate for the coalition is not nominated/selected within the coalition, what would you do
CORD – (Raila/Kalonzo/Wetangula)
Jubilee – (Uhuru/Ruto/Mudavadi/Ngilu)
Pambazuka – (Wamalwa/ Biwott/Jirongo)
Tunawesmake – (Kenneth/Tuju)
Martha Karua
Ole Kiyapi
Still vote for the coalition
81.4%
74.7%
64.0%
53.2%
30.4%
66.7%
Vote for another coalition instead
10.8%
14.1%
20.0%
31.9%
34.8%
33.3%
Not vote at all
7.5%
9.0%
4.0%
10.6%
21.7%
Dont know/undecided
.3%
2.2%
12.0%
4.3%
13.0%
Total
100.0%
Updating The Past, Informing The Future

14. If your preferred presidential candidate for the coalition is not nominated/selected within the coalition, what would you do
CORD
Cord
Preferred candidate
Still vote for the coalition
Vote for another coalition
Not vote at all
Raila Odinga
92.8
81.2%
10.9%
8.0%
Kalonzo Musyoka
6.2
88.6%
9.1%
2.3%
Pambazuka
Pambazuka
Preferred candidate
Still vote for the coalition
Vote for another coalition
Not vote at all
Eugene Wamalwa 52
76.9%
23.1%
Nicholas Biwott 12
100.0%
Jubilee
Jubilee
Preferred candidate
Still vote for the coalition
Vote for another coalition
Not vote at all
Uhuru Kenyatta
71.9
81.7%
8.8%
9.5%
William Ruto
4.3
85.7%
10.7%
3.6%
Musalia Mudavadi
18.4
55.5%
33.6%
10.9%
Charity Ngilu
1.1
71.4%
28.6%
Tunawesmake
Tunawesmake
Preferred candidate
Still vote for the coalition
Vote for another coalition
Not vote at all
Peter Kenneth
78.7
56.8%
35.1%
8.1%
Raphael Tuju
8.5
75.0%
25.0%
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15. Which is your favourite Tv Station
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16. Which is your favourite Radio Station
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17. Which is your favourite Newspaper
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18. Thank you Updating The Past, Informing The Future
Strategic Public Relations and Research Limited
Titan Plaza, Chaka Road, Nairobi, Kenya
P.O. Box Nairobi,
Tel: /3,
Updating The Past, Informing The Future