1. Emerging Technologies and AI1

2. Thesis
“Whoever becomes the leader in this [AI] sphere will become the ruler of the world”
Russian President Vladimir Putin
In a great power competition, it is imperative now, more than ever, that the U.S. promote favorable conditions to preserve our advantage in AI and other critical emerging technologies to sustain National Security.
“AI...will lead to a profound
military revolution...”
Lt Gen Liu Guozhi, Director Central Military Commission, S&T 2

3. Artificial Intelligence3

4. - March towards complete openness
Key Elements
Big Data
-Who has the data?
- Use of Synthetic data
Algorithms
- March towards complete openness
- University/Community of Interest?
Computing Power Revolution
- CPUs
- GPUs
- Quantum Computing and qubits
Edge vs Cloud vs IOT
- Size/weight/power
- Transmission band width/the 5G revolution and beyond

5. Levels of AI Narrow AI - single task
- repetitive; the dull, dirty and dangerous
General AI
- approaching human like thinking
- some inferential thinking
- impact on workforce
Super AI
- True deep learning/neuromorphic or quantum learning
- OODA loop becoming DOOA loop
- Speed speed speed

6. Key AI Issues Trust - human machine teaming
- collaborative decision-making
- increasingly on the edge?
Explainability
- Uber (and other) accidents
- Bias (confirmation and others)
- Trolls and other malign efforts to polarize
Ethics
Person in the loop
Lethality

7. Applying Artificial Intelligence7

8. Artificial Intelligence Hype Cycle
Plateau reached:
10+ years
2 – 5 years
Deep Learning
Cognitive Cyber
Brain Computer Interface
General AI
Autonomous Driving (Level 4)
Narrow AI
Expectations
Time 8

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10. US / China Innovation Ecosystems
Laissez-Faire with limited USG intervention = High-powered, independent multinational companies
Statist with heavy CCP intervention + limited individual protections =
CIV-MIL fusion