1. Week 18 Review
Another week partially becalmed by holidays.
The Fed was less dovish (i.e. more hawkish) than expected on Wednesday.
Global equities were essentially flat on the week, but only because of a surge on Friday.
The USD drops on the week but does not make a lower low, so we can say the upwards trend (on the weekly chart)
is intact.
The EUR drops on the week, making a lower low on the weekly chart, and as such maintaining its downwards trend.
The NZD is developing a downwards trend on the weekly chart, after another fall.

2. 19 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 6/5/19
Fundamentals
Domestic
Sentiment
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
Trump threatens China tariffs, markets react predictably; UK PM May says Labour Brexit deal close
Lighthizer confirms sanctions to begin Friday as China reneging on commitments
Chinese Premier Lui He will travel to Washington for trade talks this week
Chinese Premier Lui He arrives in Washington
Tariffs on China increased.
Trump receives “beautiful” letter from Chinese counterpart.
Turkey buys TRY to bolster currency.
Risk
US/China trade volatility
Themes
Equities, EURUSD, NZDUSD, USDTRY
USD
Strong
Dovish Fed, less QT, emollient Trump
PPI (Headline/Core miss)
CPI
EUR
Weak??
Dovish ECB week 10
Partial Holiday
JPY
Swing
Holiday
GBP
Ongoing Brexit uncertainty
GDP – m/m miss; q/q in line;
Manu Production
CAD
Comm
Trade Balance
(Un)employment
AUD
Retail Sales; Cash Rate – unchanged despite expectation
Monetary Policy Statement – expects 2 cuts to 1.00%.
NZD
Inflation Expectations
Cash Rate –
25bp reduction
CNY
Caixin Services PMI
Trade Balance –
Exports down, imports up
Equities
QT, Tax bill, earnings, less QT, concerns about global growth
Gold
Oil
Crazy
Iran sanctions, OPEC+ production cut; concerns about global growth
API Inventories:
+2.8m vs exp +1.2m
EIA Inventories:
-4.0m vs exp +1.1m

3. Week 19 Review
A week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, with tariffs imposed on Friday, but effectively not in
force for 2 to 4 weeks.
Elsewhere the Australian central bank surprised by keeping rates unchanged despite the expectation
(51/49) of a fall, so maybe not too much of a surprise. Then the RBNZ surprises by cutting rates despite a slight
expectation to remain unchanged.
Most global equities fell over the week, despite a rally on Friday.
The USD rises slightly over the week, maintaining its upwards trend (on W1).
The EUR rises over the weak, but does not break its downwards trend (on W1).
Commodity currencies all drop on the week, as expected with trade concerns.
The JPY rises on risk-off sentiment, as expected.

4. 20 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 13/5/19
Fundamentals
Domestic
Sentiment
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
China retaliate on tariffs. Trump says China deal yes or no in 3-4 weeks but he is optimistic. Meet Xi at G20 (end June, Osaka).
Trump to delay auto tariffs on EU by up to 6 months
Risk
Off On
On, then off
Themes
Equities – short or long; strong JPY, USD, weak commodity currencies
USD
Strong
Dovish Fed, less QT, emollient Trump
Retail Sales –
Core/Headline
EUR
Weak??
Dovish ECB week 10
German Prelim GDP
JPY
Swing
GBP
Ongoing Brexit uncertainty
Average Earnings
Cross party Brexit talks collapse
CAD
Comm
CPI
AUD
Wage Price Index
(Un)employment
Elections (Saturday) –
Surprise win for ruling coalition and PM Morrison, beating Labour
NZD
CNY
Industrial Production;
Fixed Asset Investment
Equities
QT, Tax bill, earnings, less QT, concerns about global growth
Gold
Oil
Crazy
Iran sanctions, OPEC+ production cut; concerns about global growth
API Inventories:
+8.6m vs exp -1.3m
EIA Inventories:
+5.4m vs exp 0.0m

5. Week 20 Review
Another week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, with tariff retaliation by the Chinese, although
Trump is optimistic of a positive result in 3 to 4 weeks.
Brexit uncertainty continues.
The AUD falls as the heavily scrutinised employment and unemployment numbers both miss expectations.
A surprise election result on Saturday lifts the AUD and the AUS200 on the following Monday 20th May.
Global equities are mixed over the week.
The USD rises maintaining its upwards trend (on W1).
The EUR rises over the weak, almost but not quite breaking its downwards trend (on W1).
The JPY rises on negative sentiment.
AUD and NZD continue down on trade concerns.

6. 21 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 20/5/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
Report US/China trade talks stalled; Google ceases to work with Huawei
90 day general license granted to Huawei
China “preparing for long trade war” – generally negative comments from various officials
Trump says good possibility of China trade deal and Huawei could be included
Risk
Off
Neutral/on
Themes
USD Up
FOMC Mtg Mins –
neutral
EUR
Down
Services and Manufacturing PMI;
EU Elections
EU Elections (and Saturday)
JPY
Swing
GBP
PM May’s latest Brexit offer falls apart
CPI
Retail Sales;
PM May to resign 7th June
CAD
No trend
Holiday
Retail Sales
AUD
Monetary Policy Mtg Mins – more focus on labour market, considering rate cut in June.
Westpac now expects 3 rate cuts this year
NZD
CNY
Equities
Gold
Oil
OPEC+ JMMC mtg say cut compliance at 150% in April, June mtg to discuss production hike in H2.
API Inventories:
+2.4m vs exp +0.6m
EIA Inventories:
+4.7m vs exp -1.2m
5% drop due to risk tone exacerbated by technical selling

7. Week 21 Review
Yet another week dominated by the faltering US/China trade talks, and China “preparing for a long trade war”.
However, at the end of the week Trump says “good possibility of a China deal and Huawei could be included.”
PM May says she will resign on 7th June.
More pressure on the AUD – RBA says it is considering a rate cut in June. The week closes with Westpac saying
it now expects 3 rate cuts this year.
WTI drops 6.6% over the week on sentiment and technical selling.
On the W1 chart…
Equities drop over the week.
GOLD has its 6th week in a tight range.
USD maintains its upwards trend although has a down week.
EUR rises over the week, and technically breaks its down trend.
The GBP continues to slide.
The JPY rises on negative sentiment.
AUD and NZD have a slight rally, but things still look grim for the AUD in particular.

8. 22 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Events Risk Themes USD EUR
w/c 27/5/19
Current Trend
W1 chart
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Events
(Sunday) - EU Elections.
Brexit Party win in UK. Populists do well across the EU.
Risk
Off
Themes
Equities, Oil (reversal of technical selling), AUD weakness, USDTRY (TRY weakness – monitor), GBP weakness
USD Up
Holiday
Prelim GDP
Core PCE Price Index
EUR
Down trend broken
Holiday (FR, DE)
German Prelim CPI
JPY
Swing
Tokyo Core CPI
GBP
Down
CAD
No trend
Rate Statement
GDP
AUD
Rally on downtrend?
JP Morgan calling for 4 cuts by mid 2020
NZD
Financial Stability Report
Annual Budget
CNY
Manufacturing PMI
Equities
Dipping from highs
Gold
Consolidating
Oil
Recovery from technical selling?
API Inventories
EIA Inventories