1. SATC 2019 Patronage Time Distribution Ratios for Train (and PT) Services
8 July 2019
Pieter Onderwater

2. Pieter Onderwater (1962) Education:
1980 – 1988 Technical University Delft: MSc Civil Engineering
Traffic & Transport: PT/Rail Planning
2017 – now University of Cape Town: PhD on Rail Planning
Work:
1988 – Swiss Railway Company, University Delft
1989 – Goudappel Coffeng T&T Consultancy
1992 – Municipalities of The Hague and Rotterdam
2006 – DHV Consultants Rail, the Netherlands
2011 – 2013 SSI / Royal HaskoningDHV, South Africa
2013 – 2018 SMEC, South Africa
2018 – now Hatch Africa
Lecturing:
2000 – 2010 Deventer, Utrecht techikons, Twente University, the Netherlands
2012 – now University of Cape Town
2017 – now University of Namibia

3. 1. Objective and Methodology
Objective of this paper:
Determine the Time Distribution of train (and other PT) trips
The patronage ratio per hour, compared to an average workday
To substantiate planning parameters
To test some pre-conceptions
Methodology:
Analyses of passengers’ activities, and travel behaviour
Review data sets
Results: ratio per hour compared to average workday; also weekends
Determine required peak, off-peak service frequency
Passenger Demand  PT Supply
Impact of off-peak service frequency on time ratios
PT Supply  Passenger Demand
Conclusions and Recommendations

4. 2. Activities lead to Transport peaks
Transportation is a derived activity, a means to get people involved in economic and social activities
People’s activities, Trip purposes PT %
Economic activities: fixed 80 %  Mostly in Peak periods
Commute to Work, Business some in Weekends
Education
Supportive activities: 10 %  Often in Off-Peak
Shopping and Weekends
Visit Facilities and Services
Social activities: 10 %  Mostly in Off-Peak
Visit Family and Friends and Weekends
Leisure (> 30 % in Europe)

5. 3. Data Household Travel Surveys (2008, 2013)
eThekwini, Johannesburg, Cape Town
NHTS and other HTS did not have specific info
PRASA Rail Census (2008, 2012)
eThekwini, Cape Town
Gauteng was not made available, yet
Gautrain patronage data (2015 – 2018)
European train systems (2017)
Switzerland, the Netherlands
BRT and Feeder services (2015, 2018)
Johannesburg, Cape Town

6. 3. Peak Periods Peak period = 3-hour period with the highest patronage
Time to enter the system: station / train
Top Peak hour is (often) the middle hour in this peak period
Household Travel Surveys and ITP’s do not have the correct peak times !
Stated peak times: 6:00 – 9:00 16:00 – 19:00
Peak times differ per region, mostly due to sun-rise and sun-set times:
eThekwini: 5:00 – 8:00 15:00 – 18:00
Gauteng: 5:30 – 8:30 15:00 – 18:00
Cape Town: 5:30 – 8:30 15:30 – 18:30
Europe (average): 6:30 – 9:30 16:00 – 19:00
Hardly any differences between ‘traditional’ PT, BRT, Metrorail and Gautrain
Although data of Metrorail Gauteng was not available…

7. 4. Demand spread over the day

8. 4. Demand spread over the day
SA PT trips: AM = % off-peak = % PM = %
Peak direction = 70 – 80 % Contra-peak direction = 20 – 30 %
Top Peak hour = 50% of peak = 15 – 20 % of day total
 year = workdays
In NL: AM = % off-peak = % PM = %
Peak direction = 60 – 70 % Contra-peak = 30 – 40 % (or 50 / 50 %)
Top Peak hour = wider peaks = 10 – 12 (max 15) % of day total
 year = days (weekend trips)
Because:
Multiple node metro area  higher contra-peak  more balanced
More social activities in PT  more off-peak / weekend trips
Better off-peak service  more off-peak trips / peak spreading
SATC 2019

9. 4. Demand spread over the day
Period
# hrs/day
hr% of day
In peak dir
Contra peak
Frequency
AM top peak
1 hr
15-20
15 in-bound
5 out-bound
100 %
AM shoulders
1+1 hr 10 7 3 %
Off-peak
7 hr
3-5 2
25-50 %
PM shoulders
7 out-bound
3 in-bound
PM top peak 15 5
Evening
>2 hr
1-3 1
20-30 %
In-bound
Out-bound
Early – AM Peak – Mid-day Off-Peak – PM Peak – Evening

10. 4. Weekend patronage Weekend’s patronage is lower than workdays
And a bit more evenly spread / lower peaks
Sat Sun Reason ?
Metrorail 50 % 30 %
Gautrain 30 % 25 % low freq, more car use
Europe 60 % 50 % more social trips, higher freq
BRT 40 % 25 %

11. 5. Passenger Demand  PT Supply
High peak demand  high peak service frequency / supply
Seated and standing capacity in train, BRT (n/a in minibus-taxi)
Low off-peak demand  low (or no) off-peak service frequency
Seated capacity mostly
Take into account: minimum Level of Service frequency
E.g. > 2 trains / hr in off-peak; clock-face = consistent frequencies
Run shorter trains in off-peak (n/a with bus and minibus-taxi)
PT System Off-Peak / Peak ratio Pass Demand  PT freq Supply
Metrorail 2 % / 20 % = 10 % %
Gautrain 3 % / 15 % = 20 % 50 %
Europe 5 % / 12 % = 40 % 80 %
BRT 3 % / 15 % = 20 % 20 %
Minibus-taxi 2 % / 20 % = 10 % 10 %

12. 6. PT Supply  Demand Ratios
Higher off-peak ratios are found at corridors with a decent off-peak service:
Train system Service freq. Patronage ratio in off-peak
Metrorail ½-1 tr/hr %
Metrorail 1-2 tr/hr %
Gautrain 3 tr/hr 25 %
Europe tr/hr 35 %
Similar in evenings and weekends
Poor off-peak service  passengers will try to find other PT mode, or travel in peaks (also for non-peak-reliant activities)  higher peaks…
Or not travel at all…
Relatively higher off-peaks / lower top peaks = Lower capital costs, Lower operational costs = Similar revenue  better cost efficiency
Peak spreading  shift from peak to off-peak
Attract new off-peak market

13. 7. Conclusions and Recommendations
Apply correct peak times
Not 6:00 – 9:00 and 16:00 – 19:00 as stated  actually ½ to 1 hour earlier
Different per region (due to daylight times)
 Conduct travel surveys accordingly: not 6:00 – 18:00, but 5:00 – 19:00
Demand-driven PT systems: supply is determined 1-on-1 by demand
Supply-driven PT systems: apply minimum QLoS
Peak = seated and standing capacity; off-peak = seated only
Minimum QLoS frequency, clock-face timetable
Train system = run with shorter trains, to provide higher off-peak freq.
Improved off-peak service  higher off-peak patronage / lower peak ratio  Improved cost efficiency
PRASA Modernisation  check impact (Mamelodi – Pretoria) !

14. Discussion
Any questions ? .