1. Climate Risk Management @ JRC
6° EIONET meeting Brussels 22 May 2012

2. Simple approach
RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x SENSITIVITY
MITIGATION
ADAPTATION
27 August 2019

3. temperature increase without and with policy
Meinshausen Nature 2009

4. impacts at various levels of temperature increase
discourse of 5 years ago
AVOID THE UNMANAGEABLE
mitigation
> 40 % of species extinction around the globe (4.5)
WestAntartic Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (4.2 committed)
About 30% of coastal wetlands lost (3.8)
Thermohaline circulation stops (4 committed)
Terrestrial biosphere tends to a net carbon source (3.0)
Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year (2.8)
Greenland Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (2.2 committed)
Up to 30% of species at increasing risk to extinction (1.8)
Arctic summer ice disappears(1.5 committed)
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to water stress (1.0)
Increased coral bleaching (0.8)
MANAGE THE UNAVOIDABLE
adaptation
IPCC 4AR 2007
Ramanathan & Feng PNAS 2008

5. today’s discourse impacts at various levels of temperature increase
> 40 % of species extinction around the globe (4.5)
WestAntartci Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (4.2 committed)
About 30% of coastal wetlands lost (3.8)
Thermohaline circulation stops (4 committed)
Terrestrial biosphere tends to a net carbon source (3.0)
Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year (2.8)
Greenland Ice sheet collapses: 7 meters sea level rise (2.2 committed)
Up to 30% of species at incresing risk to extinxtion (1.8)
Arctic summer ice disappears(1.5 committed)
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to water stress (1.0)
Increased coral bleaching (0.8)
FIGHT FOR 2 C
mitigation
PREPARE FOR 3 C
adaptation
IPCC 4AR 2007
Ramanathan & Feng PNAS 2008

6. Climate Risk Management: the challenge
Mitigation is main action in EU -2 C target the low carbon society, the “great transistion” However: -global CO2 emissions , we are on or way to a +3 C world. Adaptation becomes more important also for EU -consider +2 C, +4 C, worlds ... because of uncertainties! -adaptation as essential element of sustainable development -economic, environmental social cost of inaction and action Fight for 2 C world prepare for +3 C world -How can mitigation and adaptation be linked Plan B: Geo-engineering -Carbon Dioxide Removal, Solar Radiation Management,

7. Simple approach
RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x SENSITIVITY
MITIGATION
ADAPTATION
27 August 2019

8. Other framework: IPCC SREX report, 2011
Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation
Sensitivity
27 August 2019

9. Climate Risk Management
2050
climate scenario’s
MITIGATION
TODAY
meteorological forecast
droughts
heat waves
infrastructure
natural
resources
people
floods
- VULNERABILITY
- ADAPTATION
- VULNERABILITY
- ALERTS
Supported by Earth Observations and Earth System Modelling
27 August 2019

10. (no socio-economic change)
The JRC PESETA studies
Economic cost of Climate Change in the EU
common
Climate Change
scenario’s
up till 2100
(no socio-economic change)
impacts and direct economic cost in:
Sector 1
Sector 2
Sector N
direct + indirect
economic cost in:
Sector 1
Sector 2
GEM-E3
Sector N
Total cost (% GDP, PPP)

11. The JRC PESETA studies PESETA II (2011-2012) PESETA (2007-2009)
Sectors
Agriculture
Coastal Systems
River Floods
Tourism
Scenario’s (inconsistent)
PRUDENCE A1B &B2
ΔT minus
Global: 2.6C – 3.4C
EU: 2.5C, 3.9C, 4.1C, 5.4 C
PESETA II ( )
Sectors
Agriculture
River Floods
Tourism
Transport
Energy
Forest Fires
Human Health
Air Quality
Habitat suitability
Scenario’s (consistent + bias corrected)
ENSEMLES A1B, E1, RCP8.5
ΔT minus
Global : 1.5 C – 3.5 C

12. The JRC PESETA studies PESETA (2007-2009) final result
Ciscar et al., PNAS, 2011

13. The JRC PESETA studies
PESETA - II ( ) bias correction of scenario’s
TEMPERATURE A1B
Dosio et al., JGR, 2012 (submitted)

14. The JRC PESETA studies
PESETA - II ( ) bias correction of scenario’s
PRECIPITATION A1B
Dosio et al., JGR, 2012 (submitted)

15. Linking Adaptation and Mitigation
various dimensions
Global
Regional (e.g. EU)
Local
optimal share of mitigation and adapation through cost-benifit analysis
...
preference for adaptation; look for co-benefits of mitigation
link global with local actors
determine acceptable level of climate change (e.g. 2 C) to guide mitigation and adaptation
Economic
M and A complementary
Social
Swart and Raes, 2007
Environment
M and A equally important 15

16. thanks
27 August 2019