1. Fossil fuels: abundance, risk management,
and exports from the Pacific NW
CCE seminar series
Dr. John Perona, series coordinator
This presentation available at:

2. Tonight’s seminar Fossil fuel resources
NW fossil fuel export terminals
Fossil fuel risk bonds
Speakers:
Nick Caleb, LL.M., Center for Sustainable Economy
Dr. John Talberth, Center for Sustainable Economy

3. Upcoming seminars Towards the renewable energy economy
March 22, April 26, May 23
Towards the renewable energy economy
-pathways for lowering emissions
-law and policy solutions
Carbon pricing
cap & trade vs carbon tax
Climate change and social justice

4. FOSSIL FUELS Methane – “natural gas” – CH4
“C” to “H” ratio is low  less CO2
“cleanest” fossil fuel
GAS
OIL
Octane – typical in petroleum
Intermediate “C” to “H” ratio
COAL
Typical hydrocarbon in coal
Highest “C” to “H” ratio
Produces most CO2
COAL – PRODUCES TWICE AS MUCH CO2 AS GAS

5. United States energy consumption (EIA)
Still at nearly 80% fossil fuel

6. U.S. AND WORLD COAL SUPPLY 2005 estimate: World coal
reserves to last ~200 years
at then-current extraction

7. Coal Generating Units in 2008
1256 units, GW capacity
We identified 1,256 coal generating units operating in These units represented GW of generating capacity.
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016

8. Coal Generating Units in 2016
804 units left, GW capacity
By the end of 2016, 452 units (59.3 GW) had retired, and 98 units (13.4 GW) had converted to another fuel, mostly natural gas, leaving GW of coal capacity.
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016

9. Looking Ahead… Near future for coal
163 more units retiring/converting (18%)
Many more units uneconomic (21%)
Looking out into the future, we identified 128 units (38.1 GW) that are already slated for retirement, in addition to 35 units (12.8 GW) that are slated for either retirement or conversion to another fuel (again, mostly natural gas). That represents 51 GW of coal generating capacity, or 18% of the capacity remaining in 2016.
The green dots show the units that failed our economic stress test (which we’ll get to in a moment) indicating that these units are currently more expensive to run than an equivalent existing natural gas plant. (Note that 84 units, or 4.2 GW, were excluded from the stress test and are not shown here.)
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2016

10. Wind and solar energy are already cheapest
Levelized cost – compares all costs over entire lifetime
of a facility: includes construction and operation

11. Peak Oil predictions – about 10 years ago
“Hubbert’s peak” – geologist M. King Hubbert, in 1950’s,
correctly predicted a US oil production peak in 1970
Resource – estimated natural occurrence
Reserve – subset of resource available for
current exploitation

12. Fracking revolution in the US (2008 - ?)
Natural gas
“tight” oil

13. Fracking process

15. 1. 3. 2. LNG- Liquefied natural gas
Methane is drilled, refined, liquefied at
a remote site
The LNG is loaded on double-hulled
refrigerated tankers and shipped
The LNG is expanded offshore or onshore,
and piped to interface with a local gas
network 1. 3. 2.

16. The Hydrocarbon Age
So, in conclusion, I would just like to say that I know that the data points in the oil statistics are weak. But I think that it is better to have a sound-working hypothesis based on available knowledge, than to rely on blind faith alone. Peak oil will be a turning point for mankind. However, the roof does not fall in after peak. What changes are perceptions, as people come to realize that the easy growth of the past becomes the challenge of offsetting the decline of the future. To this end, education of the public, governments and private business sectors as to the realities of global oil supplies will be key to developing a mandate to act on solutions. Let us use our current high oil supply intelligently while it lasts to ease the transition.