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GLOBAL FDI INFLOWS Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 13% to $1.3 trillion. The decline – the third consecutive year’s fall in FDI – was mainly due to large-scale repatriations of accumulated foreign earnings by United States multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the first two quarters of 2018, following tax reforms introduced by that country at the end of 2017. The fall took place despite an 18% rise in cross-border M&As (from $694 billion in 2017 to $816 billion in 2018). The value of announced greenfield investment increased 41% in 2018 from their low 2017 levels (from $698 billion to $981 billion). -13 Amerika’nın yaptığı vergi reformları sonucunda, Amerikalı uluslararası şirketler yatırımlarını ve kazançlarını kendi ülkelerinde devam ettirmek kararı aldılar. (trillion $)
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FDI INFLOWS BY GROUP OF ECONOMIES
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FDI Inflows By Group of Economies
Half of the top 20 host economies in the world continue to be developing and transition economies. Inward FDI flows to developed economies fell sharply, by 27%, to $557 billion, the lowest level since Although cross-border M&A deal making remained active, rising by 21% in value, it was not enough to compensate for the negative outward FDI from the US caused by the tax reforms. FDI flows to developing economies remained stable, rising by 2% to $706 billion, with significant differences among regions; developing Asia and Africa recorded higher FDI inflows in 2018. FDI flows to transition economies declined by 28%, to $34 billion, the third lowest level since 2005. Despite the FDI decline, the United States remained the largest recipient of FDI followed by China, Hong Kong (China) and Singapore.
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FDI Inflows to Developed Economies
FDI flows to developed economies fell sharply, by 27%, to $557 billion. Cross-border M&As registered an 18% increase to $816 billion, recovering ground after the 22% fall in 2017. The strong decrease in inflows was in large part due to large-scale repatriations of accumulated foreign earnings by United States multinational enterprises in the first two quarters of 2018, following tax reforms introduced in that country at the end of 2017. Inflows to Europe halved to less than $200 billion, due to negative inflows in a few large host countries as a result of funds repatriations and to a sizeable drop in the United Kingdom. Inflows in the United States also declined, by 9% to $252 billion. -27 Cross-border M&As registered an 18% increase to $816 billion, recovering ground after the 22% fall in 2017. The increase was driven by large deal sizes, especially in the chemicals industry and the services sector, while the number of deals actually declined. (billion $)
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FDI Inflows to Developing and Transition Economies
Flows to developing countries remained stable, rising by 2%. As a result of the increase and the anomalous fall in FDI in developed countries, the share of developing countries in global FDI increased to 54%, a record. Flows to developing Asia, were up 4%. In a sign of continued dynamism, greenfield project announcements in the region doubled in value, recovering from their 2017 pause. FDI in Latin America and the Caribbean was 6% lower, failing to maintain momentum after the 2017 increase halted a long slide. FDI flows to Africa rose by 11% to $46 billion, despite declines in many of the larger recipient countries. The increase was supported by continued resource-seeking inflows, some diversified investments and a recovery in South Africa after several years of low-level inflows. FDI flows to economies in transition continued their downward trend in 2018, declining by 28% to $34 billion, driven by a 49% drop in flows to the Russian Federation. Part of the decline was due to re-domiciliation of overseas entities that hold assets in the Russian Federation. Investor sentiment remained cautious, in part due to geopolitical concerns and sluggish GDP growth. De-offshoring has been a policy aim of the Russian Government since 2012 (Kheyfets, 2018), to counteract the strategies of some Russian firms to domicile their head office and/or part of their share capital in economies with sizeable corporate services industries, such as Cyprus, Ireland and the Netherlands. (billion $)
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FDI INFLOWS BY REGIONS
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FDI Inflows By Regions Developing Asia regained its position as the largest FDI recipient region. The largest three recipients were China, Hong Kong (China) and Singapore, $139 billion, $115.6 billion, $77.6 billion, respectively. FDI inflows to Africa rose by 11% to $46 billion, despite declines in many of the larger recipient countries. The increase was supported by continued resource-seeking inflows, some diversified investments and a recovery in South Africa after several years of low-level inflows. FDI in Latin America and the Caribbean was 6% lower, failing to maintain momentum after the 2017 increase halted a long slide. FDI in the region is still 27% lower than during the peak of the commodities boom. FDI flows to structurally weak and vulnerable economies continued to account for less than 3% of the global total. Flows to the least developed countries recovered from their 2017 fall, back to $24 billion, the average for the decade.
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FDI INFLOWS TO TURKEY & TURKEY’S RANK
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Global FDI Inflows Ranking - I
Country 2017 (Billion $) 2018 (Billion $) 2017 Ranking 2018 Ranking United States 1 China 2 Hong Kong, China 3 Singapore 77 646 5 4 Netherlands 69 659 7 United Kingdom 64 487 6 Brazil 61 223 Australia 60 438 8 Spain 43 591 17 9 India 42 286 10 Canada 39 625 15 11 France 37 294 13 12 Mexico 31 604 Germany 25 706 14 Italy 24 276 16 Indonesia 21 980 18 Israel 21 803 19 Viet Nam 15 500 21 Korea, Republic of 14 479 20 Russian Federation 13 332 Turkey 12 944 25 Turkey in 2018; Turkey has become the 21st FDI attracting country in the world In Developing Economies, Turkey has become the 10th FDI attracting country In Asia Region, Turkey has become the 8th FDI attracting country In West Asia Region, Turkey has become the most FDI attracting country
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Global FDI Inflows Ranking - II
Country 2017 (Billion $) 2018 Value Change (%) 2017 Ranking 2018 Ranking United States 9.2% 1 China 3.7% 2 Hong Kong, China 4.5% 3 Singapore 77 646 2.5% 5 4 Netherlands 69 659 19.7% 7 United Kingdom 64 487 36.3% 6 Brazil 61 223 9.4% Australia 60 438 42.9% 8 Spain 43 591 108.4% 17 9 India 42 286 6.0% 10 Canada 39 625 59.6% 15 11 France 37 294 25.1% 13 12 Mexico 31 604 1.5% Germany 25 706 30.4% 14 Italy 24 276 10.5% 16 Indonesia 21 980 6.8% 18 Israel 21 803 20.0% 19 Viet Nam 15 500 9.9% 21 Korea, Republic of 14 479 19.2% 20 Russian Federation 13 332 48.6% Turkey 12 944 12.8% 25 FDI flows to the United Kingdom declined by 36% to $64 billion. The impact of the impending Brexit on FDI, however, is still unclear. Inflows to Spain more than doubled to $44 billion, the highest level since 2008, driven by net M&A sales worth $71 billion. The largest deal was the $23 billion acquisition of Spanish highway operator Albertis by a consortium of Atlantia (Italy), ACS (Spain) and Hochtief (Germany). Inflows to Canada recovered to $40 billion – a 60% increase from The decline of inflows in 2017 was primarily a result of divestments from oil and gas assets. Only one such divestment, worth $0.7 billion, was recorded in 2018. In the Russian Federation, FDI inflows declined by more than half to $13 billion. Investor sentiment remained cautious, in part due to geopolitical concerns and sluggish GDP growth. The EU countries were the largest source of investment, particularly the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Inflows into Italy rose by 11 per cent to $24 billion. Historically, Italy has attracted less FDI than other major European economies. In an effort to boost investment, the Government of Italy signed a memorandum of understanding with China to join the Belt and Road Initiative in March 2019.
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Global FDI Inflows Ranking – III
This chart shows the ranking and the FDI inflows of the countries Turkey is competing with regionally. TURKEY BULGARIA CZECH REPUBLIC HUNGARY POLAND ROMANIA RANKING 2018 21 65 29 36 23 38 2017 26 88 33 61 39 42 FDI INFLOWS ($ Million) 12.944 2.059 9.479 6.389 11.476 5.888 11.478 2.608 9.522 3.261 9.179 5.406
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Global FDI Inflows / Doing Business Comparison
Country Global FDI 2018 Ranking Doing Business United States 1 8 China 2 46 Hong Kong, China 3 4 Singapore Netherlands 5 36 United Kingdom 6 9 Brazil 7 109 Australia 18 Spain 30 India 10 77 Canada 11 22 France 12 32 Mexico 13 54 Germany 14 24 Italy 15 51 Indonesia 16 73 Israel 17 49 Viet Nam 69 Korea, Republic of 19 Russian Federation 20 31 Turkey 21 43 The results indicate that there is no correlation between Global FDI inflow ranking and Ease of Doing Business ranking of countries.
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Global FDI Outflows Ranking
Country 2017 (Billion $) 2018 (Billion $) 2017 Ranking 2018 Ranking Japan 2 1 China 3 France 41 257 9 Hong Kong, China 86 704 85 162 6 4 Germany 91 799 77 076 5 Netherlands 28 026 58 983 14 Canada 79 824 50 455 7 United Kingdom 49 880 8 Korea, Republic of 34 069 38 917 13 Singapore 43 696 37 143 10 Russian Federation 34 153 36 445 12 11 Spain 39 964 31 620 Switzerland 26 928 176 Saudi Arabia 7 280 21 219 28 Italy 25 673 20 576 15 Sweden 22 764 20 028 17 16 Taiwan Province of China 11 552 18 024 21 Thailand 17 064 17 714 18 United Arab Emirates 14 060 15 079 20 19 Country 2017 (Billion $) 2018 (Billion $) 2017 Ranking 2018 Ranking Ireland 13 272 177 20 India 11 141 11 037 22 21 Finland 320 10 961 172 Indonesia 2 077 8 139 41 23 Belgium 24 201 6 910 16 24 Mexico 4 090 6 858 32 25 Israel 6 153 6 008 30 26 Malaysia 5 638 5 280 31 27 Czech Republic 7 560 5 277 28 Colombia 3 690 5 122 33 29 South Africa 7 366 4 552 Kuwait 9 013 3 751 Australia 3 320 3 635 34 Turkey 2 633 3 608 36 Outward FDI from West Asia reached a historic high of $49 billion in 2018, with MNEs from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey mainly responsible for the increase. FDI from Saudi Arabia almost tripled to $21 billion, mainly in technology, finance and infrastructure activities. Turkish companies are increasingly investing in Africa. In 2018, MNEs from developed countries reduced their investments abroad by 40% to $558 billion. Outward investment by MNEs from developing economies declined by 10% to $418 billion.
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FDI to Turkey was recorded as $13 billion in 2018
Turkey’s Share in the Global FDI 2017 (%) 2018 (%) Share in the West Asia 40 44 Share in the Developing Asia 2 3 Share in the Developing Economies Share in the World 0.8 1
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Turkey and West Asia Region
FDI Inflows to West Asia ($ Billion) FDI flows to West Asia grew by 3% to $29 billion in 2018, halting an almost continuous 10-year downward trend. Inflows were still only one third of their $85 billion peak in 2008. The small rise in FDI can be attributed to higher inflows to Turkey and a pickup of investment in Saudi Arabia, which compensated for declines in other countries.
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Turkey and West Asia Region
DFDS-Shipping and Logistics Company In 2018, Turkey was the largest recipient, with inflows rising by 13% to $13 billion, despite slower than usual economic growth and uncertainty surrounding the Turkish lira. Investment from Asian economies increased from 12% to 27% of FDI into Turkey and was instrumental both in driving FDI upwards and in its diversification. The $6.3 billion Star Refinery built by the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic, one of the largest foreign investments in Turkey, started operating in late The largest M&A deal was the acquisition by DFDS (Denmark) of a 98.8 % interest in UN Ro-Ro, a provider of deep-sea freight transportation services, for $1.2 billion.
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RECENT POLICY DEVELOPMENTS ISSUES
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Investment Policy Trends
In 2018, 55 countries and economies introduced 112 policy measures affecting international investment – a decrease of more than 11% over the previous year’s figure. New investment restrictions or regulations for international investors were mainly based on national security concerns about foreign ownership of critical infrastructure, core technologies, elements of the defense sector, sensitive business assets or residential property. At the same time, many countries introduced policy measures for liberalizing, promoting or facilitating international investment. Steps toward liberalization were made in various industries, including agriculture, media, logistics, mining, energy, retail trade, finance, transportation, infrastructure and internet business. In 2018, countries concluded 40 International Investment Agreements (IIAs). During the same period 24 IIA terminations entered into effect. The economy most active in concluding IIAs in 2018 was Turkey, with eight BITs (with Bosnia and Herzegovina, EFTA, Jordan, Montenegro, Qatar, Serbia, South Korea-2 treaties) followed by the United Arab Emirates with six BITs and Singapore with five treaties (two BITs and three TIPs). 112 policy measures: Thirty-one of these measures related to new restrictions or regulations relevant to FDI, while 65 related to investment liberalization, promotion and facilitation. The remaining 16 were of neutral or indeterminate nature. In particular, numerous governments blocked M&A deals on the basis of national security concerns, with the aggregate amount of the transactions being approximately $153 billion. For example, Australia tightened investment screening procedures in the electricity industry and strengthened regulations on the purchase of agricultural land by foreign investors. The Government of Flanders in Belgium established a new screening mechanism to intervene in foreign acquisitions under certain conditions. China set up national security review procedures for the acquisition by foreign investors of domestic enterprises and for the outbound transfer of intellectual property in the context of exporting technologies. France and Germany extended the scopes of their foreign investment screening systems to several new strategic technology activities. Hungary adopted a new law, introducing a foreign investment screening mechanism related to national security in politically sensitive activities such as defence, dual-use products, cryptography, utilities, the financial industry, electronic communication and public communication systems. Lithuania amended the Law on Enterprises and Facilities of Strategic Importance to National Security, mainly seeking to safeguard national security in certain industries such as military equipment, energy and information technologies. United Kingdom and the United States expanded the conditions or scope of application of their foreign investment review mechanisms related to national security. At the regional level, the European Union (EU) established a framework for FDI screening in April 2019. Several countries adopted new regulations on ownership of land by foreign investors. For instance, Canada increased the property transfer tax on residential property transfers to foreign entities. Singapore increased the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty applicable to foreigners who acquire residential property. In February 2019, India introduced several restrictive changes in its FDI policy for e-commerce in order to safeguard the interests of domestic offline retailers. China increased the quota for foreign technical personnel in foreign-invested construction and engineering design enterprises, and relaxed restrictions on recruitment agencies. Thailand introduced a new visa system (Smart Visa) to attract foreign highly skilled talent. Uzbekistan increased its quota for the issuance of work permits for highly qualified foreign specialists. Poland extended the fiscal incentive schemes previously available only in SEZs to the entire country. China revised its foreign investment negative list for 11 pilot free trade zones, relaxing or removing restrictions on foreign investment in several industries. India liberalized rules on inward investment in several industries, including single-brand retail trading, airlines and power exchanges.
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TRENDS IN FDI FLOWS
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LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
Global FDI Flows and Investments DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING ASIA LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Country Amount (Billion $) The Most FDI Attracting Countries (2018) 1 USA 251 China 139 Brazil 61 2 Netherlands 69 Hong Kong, China 115 Mexico 31 3 UK 64 Singapore 77 Argentina 12 4 Australia 60 India 42 Colombia 11 5 Spain 43 Indonesia 21 Chile 7 The Most Investing Countries (2018) Japan 143 129 6 France 102 85 Germany Rep. of Korea 38 58 37 Canada 50 Saudi Arabia Venezuela
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Share in world FDI inflows Share in world inward FDI stock
Global Trends – Mega Groups & FDI Movements Mega Groups 2018 FDI Inflows Share in world FDI inflows Share of world GDP Inward FDI Stock Share in world inward FDI stock G20 871 Billion $ 67% 78% 17,9 Trillion $ 56% APEC 839 Billion $ 65% 60% 16,8 Trillion $ 52% Commonwealth 333 Billion $ 26% 14% 6,5 Trillion $ 20% USMCA (NAFTA) 323 Billion $ 25% 28% 8,8 Trillion $ 27% BRICS 261 Billion $ 24% 3,2 Trillion $ 10% ACP 39 Billion $ 3% 2% 760 Billion $ In 2018, G20 and APEC continued to dominate global FDI inflows.
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Trends- Global FDI Inflows- Greenfield and M&As
Value of Greenfield and M&A Projects The value of net cross-border M&As rose 18% to $816 billion, recovering ground after the 22% fall in 2017. The increase was driven by large deal sizes, especially in the chemicals industry and the services sector, while the number of deals declined. The value of announced greenfield projects rose by 41% to $981 billion. Also here, the average project size was the main driver of the increase, as investment activity measured by the number of projects increased by only 7%. The gains in value were mostly in extractive and processing industries, and in construction.
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Trends- Global FDI Inflows- Sectoral Breakdown
The global total value of announced greenfield projects in the primary sector doubled to $41 billion, mostly due to projects in metals mining. Announced greenfield projects in manufacturing increased by 35% to $466 billion. The processing of natural resources was a big driver of the increased investment in manufacturing. The global total of announced greenfield projects in services rose by 43% to $473 billion. There were large increases in both construction and power generation. The value of global net M&As expressed as a percentage of FDI inflows reached 62%, the highest level since 2000. In developed economies, net M&A sales rose by 21% to $689 billion, 84% of the global total. In developing and transition economies, net M&A sales remained steady at $127 billion. In the primary sector, the largest deal was the acquisition of the oil and gas producer Maersk Olie og Gas (Denmark) by Total (France) for $7.4 billion as part of continued restructuring in the sector. In manufacturing, net M&A sales at the global level remained close to the 2017 level. Deal making in the pharmaceutical industry, which reached $113 billion in 2015, declined for the third successive year to $28 billion. The chemical industry made up for the decline through megadeals, as M&A sales more than doubled to $149 billion. They included the merger of Bayer (Germany) with Monsanto (United States), worth $57 billion, and that of Praxair (United States) with the industrial gases group Linde (Germany), worth $32 billion. In services, net M&A sales rose by over one third to $469 billion. The main driver was the increase in value of M&As in the financial industry, which almost doubled to $108 billion. Within this industry, M&As involving real estate investment trusts were particularly numerous. Separately, net M&A sales in real estate activities were worth $57 billion in Real estate-related investments thus formed a sizeable part of cross-border M&As in Almost all the deals in real estate investment trusts and three quarters of the deals in real estate targeted assets in developed economies. Announced greenfield projects in manufacturing increased by 35 per cent to $466 billion. In line with higher investments in extractive industries, the processing of natural resources was a big driver of the increased investment in manufacturing. Projects in coke, petroleum products and nuclear fuel increased six-fold to $86 billlion. A project by Shell Canada, a joint venture of Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi Corp. and Korea Gas, to build a liquefied natural gas export facility in Canada was the largest project, with planned capital expenditures totalling $30 billion The global total of announced greenfield projects in services rose by 43 per cent to $473 billion. There were large increases in both construction and power generation. Projects in construction rose by 84 per cent to $113 billion. In 2018, the textile manufacturer Shandong Ruyi Technology (China) announced its project to invest $830 million to establish a textile industrial zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone in Egypt. Greenfield projects in power generation rose by 23 per cent in 2018, to $110 billion, accounting for almost all projects in utilities. International investment through greenfield FDI is focused predominantly on renewable energy. In 2018, announced capital expenditures in renewable electricity totalled $78 billion and in fossil fuel-based electricity only $27 billion
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Special Economic Zones
THEME OF WIR 2019 REPORT: Special Economic Zones
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Special Economic Zones- I
Special economic zones (SEZs) – geographically delimited areas within which governments facilitate industrial activity through fiscal and regulatory incentives and infrastructure support – are widely used across most developing and many developed economies. Although the performance of many zones remains below expectations, failing either to attract significant investment or to generate economic impact beyond their confines, new zones continue to be developed, as governments increasingly compete for internationally mobile industrial activity. SEZs remain top of mind for industrial and investment policymakers, for several reasons: Relative ease of implementing business reforms through SEZs Perceived low cost of establishing SEZs Increased competitive pressure Regulatory framework and governance Policymakers face not only the traditional challenges of making SEZs succeed, including the need for adequate strategic focus, regulatory and governance models, and investment promotion tools, but also new challenges brought about by the sustainable development imperative, the new industrial revolution and changing patterns of international production.
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Special Economic Zones- II – Developed Economies
SEZs are found in about 70% of developed countries. Almost all the zones are customs-free zones, and their economic significance as a share of the overall economy in which they are located is relatively limited, except possibly in the United States. The general thrust of economic policy in developed countries is to create a level playing field across the economy, rather than setting up privileged areas. The main rationale for establishing SEZs in developed economies is to reduce the distortionary effects of tariffs and regulatory “costs” associated with importing.
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Special Economic Zones- III – Developing Economies
Asia is host to three quarters of all SEZs in the world. Thirty-five economies in the region have SEZ programs. In Turkey, technology development zones (TDZs) are areas designed to support R&D activities and attract investments in high-tech fields. There are 83 TDZs, 20 of which are under construction. Incentives include; exemption of corporate income tax on profits for software development, R&D and design activities; exemption from value added tax on the sale of software produced in TDZs; exemption from income tax for employees engaging in R&D, design and support activities. Exemption from customs duties on imported goods and subsidies on social security premiums are also offered.
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Special Economic Zones- IV – Transition Economies
Transition economies began adopting SEZ regimes in the 1990s. The pace of newly established SEZs accelerated from the second half of the 2000s onwards, especially over the 2015–2019 period, due to the creation of Territories of Advanced Development in the Russian Federation, as a response to the global crisis. With the exception of Ukraine, 5 all the transition economies now have some form of SEZ. The Russian Federation, which accounts for over 70% of the region’s GDP, hosts more than half of the 237 zones in the region. SEZs in the region vary significantly by size, numbers of tenants, industry focus and governance models (public versus private involvement). Export-oriented zones tend to attract mostly foreign firms, whereas zones geared towards regional development, such as those in the Russian Federation, host mostly domestic firms.
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PROSPECTS
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Overall Prospects Assessment
Global investment is expected to see a modest recovery of 10% in 2019, to almost $1.5 trillion. The main factor driving up expectations is the likely rebound from anomalously low levels of FDI in developed countries in Following the subsiding of repatriations of foreign earnings of United States multinationals in the second half of 2018, developed-country inflows are likely to revert to prior levels, implying a significant jump in some countries that normally receive sizeable inflows. FDI flows to Europe region are expected to increase by 60%. FDI inflows to developing economies are expected to increase by 5%. FDI inflows to developing Asia are cautiously optimistic, especially in South-East Asia and South Asia, with flows rising lightly (by 5%) thanks to a favorable economic outlook and improving investment climate. FDI inflows to transition economies flows are likely to see a recovery in 2019, reaching $50 billion. FDI inflows to Africa is likely to increase by 15%, in view of an expected acceleration of economic growth and advances in regional integration. Prospects for FDI in Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to remain relatively stable, with a projected decline of about 5%, while in transition economies flows are likely to see a recovery in 2019, reaching $50 billion.
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YASED INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS PRESENTATION
2018 YEAR-END & 2019 MONTHLY FDI DATA OF TURKEY
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INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT IN TURKEY & IN THE WORLD
Turkey’s Share in the Global FDI 2017 (%) 2018* (%) Share in the West Asia 40 44 Share in the Developing Asia 2 3 Share in the Developing Economies Share in the World 0.8 1 32
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Distribution of FDI Inflows to Turkey
FDI INFLOWS TO TURKEY IN 2018 Distribution of FDI Inflows to Turkey The total FDI inflow in 2018 ($13.1 billion) is consisted of $6 billion net capital, $1.1 billion other capital net and $5.9 billion real estate purchased by non-residents. Real estate purchased by non-residents had an important share of 45% in the total inflows. Inflows to real estate purchases ($5.9 billion) increased by 27% compared to 2017. The total FDI in 2018 was increased by 13% compared to previous year. (Million $) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Capital (Net) 9.936 8.371 11.729 6.904 5.532 6.064 Inflow 10.523 8.632 12.093 7.534 7.401 6.534 Outflow 587 261 364 621 1.869 470 Other Capital (Net) 578 645 3.389 3.156 1.371 1.184 Real Estate (Net)* 3.049 4.321 4.156 3.890 4.643 5.915 Total (FDI) 13.563 13.337 19.274 13.950 11.546 13.163 -1.6% 44% -27% -17% 13% 33
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SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FDI INFLOWS IN 2018
($ million) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Agriculture 47 61 31 38 29 44 Industry 5.390 4.258 5.784 3.067 2.022 2.865 Manufacturing 2.843 2.742 4.237 2.240 1.202 1.999 Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Products 475 451 983 706 198 504 Other non-Metallic Mineral Products Manufacturing 158 112 24 64 330 Chemicals and Chemical Products Manufacturing 272 491 340 288 142 321 Coke Coal and Refined Petroleum Products 236 101 1.809 164 Computer, Electronics and Optical Products Manufacturing 607 926 242 157 149 Electricity, Gas and Steam 1.794 1.131 1.338 677 371 679 Services 5.086 4.313 6.278 4.420 5.350 3.625 Wholesale and Retail Trade 379 1.137 599 688 1.077 1.116 Finance and Insurance 3.415 1.470 3.516 1.766 1.464 1.041 Banks 1.608 912 2.775 1.323 756 Activities of Holdings 229 226 438 167 Other Financial Activities 40 133 185 42 34 80 Insurance Activities 1.538 199 117 128 5 Transportation and Storage 364 594 1.524 635 1.333 490 Accommodation and Food and Beverages Activities 59 11 250 82 238 Real Estate Purchases by Non- Residents (Net) 3.049 4.321 4.156 3.890 4.643 5.915 TOTAL 13.563 13.337 19.274 13.950 11.546 13.163 34
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Distribution of FDI Inflows by Countries and Regions in 2018
DISTRIBUTION OF FDI INFLOWS BY COUNTRIES & REGIONS Distribution of FDI Inflows by Countries and Regions in 2018 Countries FDI Inflow (million $) Share (%) 1 Netherlands 833 13 2 Azerbaijan 516 7.9 3 Italy 509 7.8 4 Austria 465 7.1 5 USA 446 6.8 6 UK 409 6.2 7 Germany 349 5.3 8 Luxembourg 329 9 France 293 4.5 10 Taiwan 246 3.7 Other 2.139 32.7 Total (Capital Inflow) 6.534 100 As of 2018 year-end, the main FDI sourcing countries to Turkey are the Netherlands, Azerbaijan and Italy, respectively. In regard to the distribution of FDI inflows at regional level; European countries are the main source of the FDI inflows by 65%. It was followed by Asian countries with a share of 27%, America 7.4% and Africa 0.6%. 35
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MERGER & ACQUISITIONS (M&A) 2018
Source: Deloitte Annual Turkish M&A Review Report 2018 (*including non-disclosed deals- Turkish Investors 37%, International Investors 63%) The total number of M&A deals was 256 with the estimated volume of $12 billion. This estimated volume corresponds to 17% increase comparing to The share of international investors in the total deal volume is 63%, highest share since 2015. Regarding the number of deals realized by International Investors, the number of deals was similar to last year, recorded as 74 transactions. Excluding the privatizations where Turkish investors were more active, the deal volume of international investors increased by 38% compared to 2017 and reached $7.6 billion in 2018 by doubling the level of 2016. 36
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Deal Volume (Million $)
MERGER & ACQUISITIONS (M&A) 2018 Regarding the deal number; the number of deals executed by the European investors once again sealed the highest number of international investors’ deal activity in 2018 with a share of 49% and recorded as 36 deals. However, the total volume of European investors has slumped comparing to 2017 and constituted 29% of the total deal volume. In contrast to the decrease in the volume of deals originated from the European region, the investors from UAE, Denmark and Taiwan contributed to the deal volume of international investors to a great extent with big ticket transactions. In 2018, it was observed that the investors from USA continued their interest in the Turkish market despite to the volatile relations with 15 deals. Additionally, investors from Germany, Italy and the UK yet again were active investors. Top 5 Disclosed M&A in 2018 Target Sector Acquirer Country Stake Deal Volume (Million $) Denizbank ** Financial Services Emirates NBD Bank UAE 100% 3.191 U.N. Ro-Ro Transportation DFDS Denmark 99% 1.172 Trendyol Internet & Mobile Services Alibaba China n/a 728 Oyak Cement Manufacturing Taiwan Cement Corp Taiwan 40% 640 Gram Games Zynga, Inc. USA 250 37
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FDI INFLOWS TO TURKEY IN APRIL 2019
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FDI INFLOWS TO TURKEY AS OF APRIL 2019
(Million $) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 (I-IV) 2019 (I-IV) CHANGE FDI 13.337 19.274 13.950 11.546 12.978* 3.245 3.251 0.2% Capital (Net) 8.371 11.729 6.904 5.532 6.070 1.497 1.968 31.4% Inflow 8.632 12.093 7.525 7.401 6.540 1.678 1.977 18% Outflow 261 364 621 1.869 470 181 9 - Other Capital (Net) 645 3.389 3.156 1.371 993 316 -608 Real Estate Purchases (Net)** 4.321 4.156 3.890 4.643 5.915 1.432 1.891 32% Source: CBT * Revized Data **(incl. real estate purchased by non-residents) As of April 2019, the net FDI inflow to Turkey has increased compared to the same period last year and recorded as $1.977 million. The total FDI amounted to $3.251 million with an increase of 0.2%. Real Estate purchased by non-residents recorded as $1.891 million with an increase of 32%. The inflow from the real estate purchased by non-residents constituted 37.4% of the total FDI. 39
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Top 10 FDI Sourcing Countries as of April 2019
DISTRIBUTION OF FDI INFLOWS BY COUNTRIES & REGIONS AS OF APRIL 2019 Top 10 FDI Sourcing Countries as of April 2019 Countries FDI Inflows (million $) 2018 2018 (IV) 2019 (IV) 1 Azerbaijan 516 108 534 2 UK 409 87 499 3 Germany 349 77 196 4 USA 446 124 148 5 Spain 233 73 113 6 Italy 509 29 48 7 Belgium 212 17 47 Netherlands 839 209 8 Switzerland 147 32 42 9 Qatar 169 35 10 Luxembourg 329 213 34 OTHER 2.302 607 234 TOTAL 6.540 1.678 1.977 As of April 2019, the main FDI sourcing countries were Azerbaijan, UK and Germany, respectively. Regarding the regional distribution; European countries were the main source of the FDI with a share of 53.8% and it was followed by Asia by 36.3% and America by 8.3%. Source: CBT 40
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SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FDI INFLOWS AS OF APRIL 2019
($ million) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (I-IV) 2019 1 Manufacturing 2.843 2.742 4.237 2.240 1.202 2.000 374 765 Coke and Refined Petroleum Products Manufacturing 236 101 1.809 164 2 420 Chemicals, Chemical Products and Pharmaceutics Products Manufacturing 272 491 340 288 142 321 73 65 Transportation Vehicles Manufacturing 97 78 147 59 38 188 49 62 Food, Beverages, and Tobacco Products 475 451 983 706 198 505 69 46 Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products Manufacturing 29 158 112 24 64 330 25 34 Computer, Electronics and Optical Products Manufacturing 607 926 242 157 149 30 Wholesale and Retail Trade 379 1.137 604 688 1.077 1.117 89 507 3 Finance and Insurance 3.415 1.470 3.515 1.765 1.464 1.046 175 276 Insurance Activities 1.538 199 117 128 5 43 19 194 Banks 1.608 912 2.775 1.323 756 67 Activities of Holdings 229 226 438 167 51 10 Other Financial Activities 40 133 185 42 80 4 Transportation and Storage 364 594 1.524 635 1.333 599 127 154 Construction 178 232 109 293 626 214 41 152 OTHER 3.344 2.457 2.104 1.904 1.699 1.564 872 123 TOTAL 10.523 8.632 12.093 7.525 7.401 6.540 1.678 1.977 As of April 2019, Manufacturing sub-sector is the leading sub-sector with amount of $765 million, followed by Wholesale and Retail Trade sub-sector ($507 million). Finance and Insurance was ranked 3rd sub-sector in the fourth month of the year with inflow of $276 million. It was followed by Transportation and Storage sub-sector ($154 million) and Construction sub sector ($152 million). Inflows to services sectors : $ million Inflows to industrial sector : $ 775 million Inflows to agriculture sector : $ million 41
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