1. Some Initial Results on Network Bandwidth Prediction
Peter A. Dinda

2. Traces NWS (available bw)
WAN: diamond.cs.ucsb.edu->antares.cis.ksu.edu common carrier (via MCI)
median 12 second intervals (11 days, 0.34 Mbps mean, 0.18 std)
LAN: gauss->galois 100Mbps ethernet
median 12 second intervals (12.3 days, 49.2 Mbps mean, 10.4 Mbps std)
Willinger/Taqqu local ethernet traces (used bw)
LAN packet traces, bw integrated over 100ms and 50ms)
Aug (2958 seconds) 147 Kbps mean, 133 Kbps std
Oct (1696 seconds) 376 Kbps mean, bps std

3. Linear Modeling Techniques
Best Windowed Mean
Box-Jenkins
AR(8), MA(8), ARMA(4,4),ARIMA(4,1-2,4)
Fractional models
ARFIMA(4,d,4) (recommended by willinger/taqqu for capturing self-similarity of ethernet traces)

4. Questions What is the time scale of interest for remos?
“average bw over 10 seconds, 20 seconds from now”…
Other traces of interest?