1. Met Office update Malcolm Brooks, Yaswant Pradhan, Ben Johnson
Fanny Peers (University of Exeter)
ICAP, Greenbelt MD, USA – 12/07/2016

2. Contents Forecast availabilty: Standard ‘met’ fields Arrival times.
Additional aerosol model
Science configuration
Arrival times, issues

3. Forecast support Standard ‘met’ fields
A Post-processing system for operational and research models:
Locates and polls for completion of forecast runs on HPC.
(Max 5 minute latency).
Extracts required fields and basic manipulation.
Plotting and web page produced quickly.
External transfer of sub-set of products.

4. Forecast support Standard ‘met’ fields
Demo:
Met Office internal:
Fastest arrival time. Competitive to Ops. Centre.
All available models, intercomparisons
Internal Met Office ‘customers’ of this page, not just Obs campaigns.
External pages, for a sub-set of products:
Involve an extra transfer (time, reliability).
Password protected pages.

5. Standard ‘met’ fields Arrival times
Post-processing system for operational and research models:
Operational global 00Z completes ~0330Z – 0400Z
06Z completes ~0930Z – 1000Z
12Z completes ~1530Z – 1600Z
18Z completes ~2130Z – 2200Z
Research models align to this, but have to queue.
Locates and polls for completion of forecast runs on HPC.
Max 5 minute latency.
Extracts required fields and basic manipulation.
Runs on HPC. Optimisied, completes in ~5-10 minutes.
Plotting and web page produced on queued linux servers.
Highly parallelised.
Internal imagery updated on webpage when ANY model/section completes.
latest imagery arrives in stages and viewable before all completed.
Rough priority order: Precip, winds, cloud, then the rest....
Internal arrival times logged:
Global: 00Z from ~0415Z – 0600Z.
06Z from ~1000Z – 1115Z
12Z from ~1645Z – 1800Z
18Z from ~2200Z – 2300Z.
External transfer of sub-set of products.
Arrive approx 1 hour later.
External transfers more variable.

6. Standard ‘met’ fields Arrival times
Post-processing system for operational and research models:
Operational global 00Z completes ~0330Z – 0400Z
06Z completes ~0930Z – 1000Z
12Z completes ~1530Z – 1600Z
18Z completes ~2130Z – 2200Z
Research models align to this, but have to queue.
Locates and polls for completion of forecast runs on HPC.
Max 5 minute latency.
Extracts required fields and basic manipulation.
Runs on HPC. Optimisied, completes in ~5-10 minutes.
Plotting and web page produced on queued linux servers.
Highly parallelised.
Internal imagery updated on webpage when ANY model/section completes.
latest imagery arrives in stages and viewable before all completed.
Rough priority order: Precip, winds, cloud, then the rest....
Internal arrival times logged:
Global: 00Z from ~0415Z – 0600Z. (+ ~1 hrs transfer)
06Z from ~1000Z – 1115Z
12Z from ~1645Z – 1800Z
18Z from ~2200Z – 2300Z.
External transfer of sub-set of products.
Arrive approx 1 hour later.
External transfers more variable.

7. Other aerosols (Ben Johnson)
Carbonaceous aerosol,
CLASSIC:
fossil fuel
bio-fuel
biomass burning
Anthropogenic emissions:
2014 monthly mean
MACC/CityZen
Biomass burning:
1 day lagged from GFAS
Total carbon scaled x1.7
Once airborne, only dust assimilated in these runs!

8. Other aerosols Cost increase ~30% to ~40%
Land DMS emss Ocean DMS Antrhop. SO2 emiss.
Sulphate aerosol forecasts with CLASSIC:
Anthropogenic SO2 (MACC/CityZen)
Volcanic SO2
Land based DMS
Ocean DMS conc (fluxes wind based)
Dust, carbonaceous, sulphate
Just missing nitrate and sea salt?
Cost increase ~30% to ~40%

9. Obs... DA Ensemble Other aerosols Extra aerosols in operational model?
No. Cost.
Running as operational?
No. Cost, complexity.
Run a single forecast instead.

10. Other aerosols Run a single forecast instead.
Wait on operational forecast.
Copy the start files
Copy the aerosol from previous run
Then run forecast.
For this to work, Dust is from operational (with DA), other aerosols are passive tracers.

11. Other aerosols

12. Evaluation of reseach aerosol model (Fanny Peers, Exeter Uni.)
vs AERONET

13. Case studies, comparing forecast vs MODIS

14. Case studies, comparing forecast vs MODIS
Forecast performance:
no systematic verification yet
what has been done looks quite good.

15. Summary
Met Office global NWP model developed in tandem with atmosphere climate model component.
Resolution and major physics upgrade coming soon.
No dust changes included.
Dust changes for global NWP:
land surface, bare soil z0, and convection interaction in development.
Moving to MODIS Collection 6, monitoring PMAP.
UK regional aerosol/chemistry model now mature
Climate model migrated to GLOMAP MODE aerosol/chemistry
Not ready for NWP use yet.

16. Summary
In order to support flight campaigns, used old aerosol scheme (CLASSIC) to add ‘carbonaceous’ and sulphate aerosol to a research NWP run.
Intended for Africa and India.
Biomass burning aerosol used from GFAS fire emissions
With a background biofuel+industrial emissions from climatology
Cost is ~30 to 40% at 17km resolution.
Limited verifcation so far, but looks good.
Aircraft just completed first campaign in India. DACCIWA underway!
Hopefully a demonstrated capability.
Implementation pathway is not clear.

17. Questions and answers