1. How can the HE sector be future-proofed?
Education Strategy
How can the HE sector be future-proofed?
Navigating the new landscape
13 June 2019
Draft

2. c.143 individual universities (+ others)
Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution
What are we trying to future-proof?
The UK HE Sector
c.143 individual universities (+ others)
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 2

3. c.143 individual universities (+ others)
Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution
What are we trying to future-proof?
The UK HE Sector
c.143 individual universities (+ others)
International reputation for quality
Driver of UK research
Driver of workforce skills
Engine for social mobility
Individual brands
Current (and future?) staff
Local economic hubs
Local learning and career opportunities
Prospects (and stress levels) of current students
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 3

4. c.143 individual universities (+ others)
Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution
What are we trying to future-proof?
The UK HE Sector
c.143 individual universities (+ others)
Forging a path to the future
vs.
Safeguarding our heritage
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 4

5. c.143 individual universities (+ others)
Future-proofing the sector is a slightly different challenge than ensuring the survival (in a recognisable form) of each institution
What are we trying to future-proof?
The UK HE Sector
c.143 individual universities (+ others)
Forging a path to the future
AND
Safeguarding our heritage
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 5

6. Several challenges have emerged – but we’re going to focus on the threats to student volumes as the individual institution level
Why are we worried?
International competition
Changing supply / demand ratio
Competitive turbulence
Funding changes (and reductions)
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 6

7. It is quite possible that a c
It is quite possible that a c.10-15% gap will open up between supply and demand over the next three years
Why are we worried?
International competition
Changing supply / demand ratio
Competitive turbulence
Funding changes (and reductions)
Change in Demand – 3 years
Change in Supply – 3 years
UK Demographics
-2-4%
International volume (Brexit)
-1-3%
Shift to Apprenticeships
-1% ?
Growth in participation
+1-3%
Total
-3-6%
PBSA beds forecast
+15%
Shift from private rental
1/3 to 1/2
Total
+7.5% - 10%
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 7

8. If this happens, then until capacity reduces (or demand grows) then there will be empty spaces at universities – but where?
Why are we worried?
International competition
Changing supply / demand ratio
Competitive turbulence
Funding changes (and reductions)
10-15% gap…. =
30% of institutions 30% empty
40% of institutions 40% empty
Will vary by…
…region
…subject
…tariff level
Can be managed by…
…”winning”
…extending the core
…shrinking
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 8

9. Understanding where you are
This raises the game for university senior leadership and governors, who will have to look harder for threats / opportunities
What’s the challenge?
Understanding where you are
Spotting change
Charting a course
Course correction
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 9

10. Understanding where you are
This raises the game for university senior leadership and governors, who will have to look harder for threats / opportunities
What’s the challenge?
Understanding where you are
Spotting change
Charting a course
Course correction
Subject strength
Aspirational vs. back-up plan
Student segments & objectives
“Competitive perimeter”
Financial drivers
Trends (long term)
Shifts (between cycles)
Divergence (within cycle)
Leading indicators of change
Objective vs. mechanics
Focus vs. covering the bases
Wider stakeholders and community needs
Ruthlessness?
Plan B
Retrenchment
Institutional flexibility
Success on every measure may not be possible
How can the HE sector be future-proofed? 10