1. Welcome

2. What are the chances… Christmas Day will be on 25 December this year
You grow another nose
You roll a dice and get an even number
You will play a computer game this weekend
You will come to college next week
It will rain tonight
Jo will not sing for the rest of the year
The sun will set in the east
You will pass Functional Maths
You will see a polar bear riding a motorbike on the way home
Get learners to come up with the words and write these on the white board. Target is for them to come up with all the chance words and the numeric values of probability on the probability line….linking fractions, decimals and percentages.

3. What will you learn today
What will you learn today? (something you did not know yesterday) By the end of this session I will be able to…
Understand that some events are impossible, some events are certain, some events are likely to occur. (L1)
Understand the concept of possible outcomes, for example gender of a baby. Understand that some events can happen in more than one way, for example getting an odd number on the throw of a dice.
Expressing a probability as a fraction, decimal or percentage – L2
Complete the Smarties investigation

4. What’s the difference between chance and probability?
Chance (L1) is described in words. Eg. Impossible, Unlikely, Evens, Likely, Certain Probability (L2) is given a numerical value. Probability is given as a fraction, decimal or percentage.
This should already be in evidence on the boards around the room

5. What is a probability scale?
This is a line where events can be placed to show the chance or probability of an event occurring.
Chance - Words
Impossible
Unlikely
Evens
Likely
Certain
1 4
3 4
1 2 1
This should already be in evidence on the boards around the room
25%
50%
75%
100%
0.25
0.50
0.75 1
Probability –fraction, decimal or percentage

6. You need to remember this:
𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒚 −𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒂𝒓𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒐𝒌𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 −𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 It is often easier to give a probability as a fraction using the rule above. If you are given probabilities in decimals, then use decimals.

7. Here’s how the rule works:
A bag contains 6 blue marbles, 5 red marbles and 9 yellow marbles. What’s the probability of selecting a yellow marble from the bag?
What you want:
How many yellow marbles there are 9
Total outcomes:
How many marbles there are in total 20
Student led then show answers to confirm. Extension…get learners to input this on the probability line.

8. Red Sweet What are the chances of selecting a silver sweet?
What is the probability of selecting a red, green or yellow sweet?
Confirming understanding of chance –words and probability numerical value.

9. Smarties Investigation
Smarties investigation. Small groups working together but keeping individual record sheets.

10. Back to targets
Can you now use probability vocabulary, write probabilities as fractions, decimals or percentages and use a probability scale?